Trading the Fed

Good Morning,
The Fed came out with their "new" transparency statement. I am not sure how much more transparency we need then them saying "through the end of 2014". OK, so the definition of transparency is telling us far in advance what they intend to do. So they can't go back on their word regarding interest rate changes through 2014. That means we just received 3 whole years of transparency relating to LOW interest rates, subdued growth, unemployment and a "muddling" economy.
I hope this makes sense that the biggest traders in the world are telling us they are supporting market movement.
The equity markets have been moving to the updside and got a huge burst over the past 24 hours. The USD has been very, very weak and weakened ever more significantly over the past 24 hours.
Thsi can be turned into a great trading psychology lesson as it is such a good example of "not standing in the way" because something is "too high or too low". Whether you are trading forex and the intraday move is 250 pips in one direction (way bigger than the average trading ranges) or it is a stock moving 20% in the same direction, entities can always go higher or lower and they can move farther than your account can stay solvent if you are against it.
So, we use technical analysis to give us trading plans. Right now, it is hard to say when and where equities are going to turn around. Before I move into the charts though, let's cover fundamental analysis. We already covered the Fed. Earnings have been pretty solid, but again, in the background when the Fed makes a statement like this. Weekly jobless claims were above expectations for the first time in quite a while - I want to keep an eye on the moving average as I expect these to not decline as fast as they have been. And to top it off, we are only 6 trading days away from the unemployment report. Early expectations are for gains of 200k - I expect us to come in at that level or below, but would be very surprised at a 200+ figure. I think the USD economy has done exceedingly well and it may be time for it to come back in line just a bit.
To the charts. We have a longer term chart of NZD/USD and you can see the huge move up in the NZD and how it (like many, many currencies) is at a recent area of resistance:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
And the EUR/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to equities, we obviously had a pop in GLD on the announcement. But there are trendlines in play and some areas of recent resistance nearby just as we have in the forex markets:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, I have been keeping an eye on XLF. Could it have a bearish divergence on the short term MACD? It "used" to be a leading indicator, but not so much as of late. Regardless, the percentage run up and the nearby resistance as well as some 50/50 earnings reports for some of the financial entities could give it some toppiness:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Again, the Fed is the largest trader out there and they are very, very bullish/supportive of our equity market. Now the question becomes, how much was priced in. If we rally through the 1350-1370 SPX level, then obviously it wasn't priced in!
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Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

Forex  is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.