SPX at "The Line of Death"

Good Morning,
Another busy day.
Fundamentally, the fireworks continue and there is always the possibility of more.
Although our economic calendar is definitely "in the background", keep an eye on durable goods tomorrow and initial claims on Thursday. I don't provide expectations, but I gather the risk is to the downside in durable goods and for initial claims to stabilize/even get a bit better. "Getting a better" is relative as the 400k number and above is consistent with little to no job growth every month.
Technically, SPX is well off its lows and heading back to pre-Bernanke levels, but still have a little bit to go - 78.6 retracement of the move from 1224ish to 1124. This retracement is "the line of death" as it is the last retracement level. If we get above it, there is a very, very good chance we will approach old highs at 1224 - then what? Are there enough shorts out there to squeeze us through those highs?

Past performance is not indicative of future results
I talk about "is a deal really a deal" a lot. I wasn't salivating over SPX but I was salivating over some others that were oversold. Yes, Gold went up, but is anyone confident they can call the direction of gold lately? I feel much more confident with oil as a true commodity. Check out the support level that held. By the way, you could get 4% for sellilng puts 10% below the market as of yesterday morning.

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to forex, there was a rough DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE in the EUR/USD:


Past performance is not indicative of future results
I chose the BUFFALO BOUNCE in the NZD/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Thanks to all who attended (and Skyped) at last evening's Park City Trading and Investing Club. Another solid meeting!!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPY Support Holds and Lots of Intraday Forex Trades

Good Morning,
Lot's of action today!
First, fundamentals. Earnings are still somewhat around and news "bombs" from around the world can take place at any time. The biggies this week on the calendar (that we can somewhat prepare for" are:
**durable goods
**initial claims
**CHIPM (check new orders and employment sub-components)
Technically, SPY support still holds:


Intra-day, the SPY provided so many DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES in forex. Here is the intra-day volatility with moves, countermoves and counter-counter moves:

Moving into forex, there were numerous DOUBLD FALL LINE TRADES and even a PARALLEL TRADE. First the GBP, then the EUR, then the AUD:






That's the quick wrap up today. Overall, I am looking for Europe or the jobless rate in the US to
worsen - whichever happens first could get us through the lows in SPY.
See you tonight at the Park City Trading and Investing Club
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

SPX Sitting on Support and BIG Worries!

Good Morning,
We are chart heavy today. I don't think I need to address the Federal Reserve as I addressed it in the past two commentaries (and nailed it) and in last night's webinar. The bottom line, our economy is flirting with recession, depression, stagflation, deflation. You name it, you got it and you better be savvy on your trading, defense, protection, income generation, because your investments aren't going to perform like they did in 2008-2010. Welcome to the NEW ECONOMY - one of majore worries and major hurdles and Volatility - yay!!
To the charts. First, forex and the chart I mentioned in last night's webinar, the GBP/USD on long term support:


Next up is equities and the SPX. I don't think support will hold if our labor data worsens (which the Fed told us it will)


Stocks that are getting to more attractive levels, XLF, JPM and my favorite, USO:






Finally, did you notice claims today? Not good! Oh yeah, if I didn't mention it, the Fed told us that this data would be bad and probably get worse. Employment data rules as reality sets in!!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

News Drives Traders (Drives Traders Nuts!)

Good Morning,
I truthfully don't know if I want to trade during the Fed. Ever since 1998, I don't know if it has been a profitable event to trade, so I ALWAYS cut my size and usually make one or two trades IF that.  Look back over history and you get about 15 minutes of action and then all of a sudden, the price stops, goes sideways and inexplicably is in the same exact place it was prior to the announcement.
Personally, I think this will be a dud as they have said over and over: rates low through 2013 (can't change that statement today) and that inflation and growth levels are below expectations. Those last two statements could be changed. Bernanke could have "inside info" on unemployment data and could give us a warning shot to temper the markets if the September unemployment report is horrific!
I will say it again, I believe the Fed gets data early and they try to temper the blow if it is a major dissapointment. So if we are expecting 100k jobs growth and we get 0 or a negative print, Bernanke will try to tell us that subliminally in the statement - that is MY opinion!
We also have Europe on the docket as far as fundamentals, claims tomorrow and that wraps up the week.
Technically, SPX is still in the range and closer to the top. Will we break through it? Disney (DIS) has a small trendline of resistance:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Technically in forex, we had the day's highs in the EUR/USD tested and proved to be resistance (at the time of this writing):

Past performance is not indicative of future results
We await Bernanke....
Free Webinar Tonight
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX Resistance Holds...

Good Evening,
A last minute trip and it didn't allow for postings, but I am back in action.
Fundamentally, and I can't stress this engough, things are hard to read. There is no one who knows what direction the market will go in 3 days from now as we are so dependent on reading what comes across the newswires.
So, my trading psychology tip of the day: book winners. Think in percentages people and take profits!! We have markets that are gapping up or down every day and lots of times they are triple digit moves. So book your profits and on to the next good location/opportunity. Also, fundamentally (and technically) we have an uncoupling of the Gold/Equity trade. It is the best traders who understand this and stop trying to buy Gold when the equities are downa and selling Gold when equities are up.
Technically, we have SPX in a range. Support is eas(ier) to pick out at 1140. Resistance, not so much. 1218 to 1230 with 1218 being a better bet these days.
Sector wise, the financials are still week with XLF off its lows, but not by much. Technology is where it is at with the QQQ's outpacing the other broad markets and AAPL leading the way. Can anyone say 450?
Forex markets were a bit sideways today, but yesterday provided some nice chart patterns. An inverse head and shoulders in the EUR/USD followed by a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE in the GBP/USD as equities rallied mid-day yesterday:



Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
See you tomorrow evening for the free Interbank FX Webinar, titled Trading Psychology.
And I will be back tomorrow as "thelocalstake" on Interbank FX Connect.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX at Top of Range

Good Afternoon,
I was writing this commentary earlier and wasn't going to post any charts. After a few sessions with clients, a few charts came up as well as a DUH! pattern in forex. Too bad I was in the forex trade and was too close to the forest to see the trees and should have done better with it!
Let's start with the fundamentals.  Just another bad batch of economic news causing the SPX to rally. Fundamentally, we have a hotter than expected CPI (woot! woot!, yes, I just purchased a Living Social deal). Claims were higher than my expectations and more importantly, higher than analyst expectations. Philly Fed was dismal to say the least and not to mention the Empire State Index was below expectations. Maybe they should add some economic data to tomorrow's empty slate and if it comes in below expectations, we bust out of the range to the upside.
Technically, you know the story. SPX is back at the 120/124 area of resistance. It isn't clear which price point to use so I will say "this area has been an area of resistance".
Before I get to the pattern in forex, there is a very cool pattern that may be exhausting itself in INTC. Could the double bottom be completed? Remember to check earnings!

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Here is the "DUH" head and shoulders pattern in GBP/USD. Look at it on a longer term chart to see the run up today due to the intervention and then see how this pattern reversed that uptrend.


Past performance is not indicative of future results
So, what will the driving news factor be tomorrow. As I mentioned, a relatively empty economic calendar in the US. Will it be earnings, will it be oversea announcements, will it be a domestic issue?
I sure am hoping to see SPX get to 1224 and see what happens at that level. It would be hard not to get into October prtection at that level since you are looking at an 80 point move from support to resistance.
Happy Trading and Be Enironmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX Range Continues - Support Holds! (For Now)

Good Morning,
Support is holding in the SPY. Before we get to the technicals, a quick review of the fundamentals.  Retail sales were flat and PPI (of non-importance due to Federal Reserve policy) was flat. Tomorrow, we get initial claims. I am expecting it to be flat as well. If the previous relationship holds, then flat economic data is positive for the equity market.

Technically, we still have some room to go to the upside, but I am not convinced that flat economic data is good enough to get us there.

To the charts we go. Support is working for SPX as we continue to bounce off a now more critical 1140 level:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Speaking of SUPPORT, check out XLF and F:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to the opposite of support, is AMZN doing its pre Christmas run? Yep, I said it, Christmas - we are about 100 days out.

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Check out AMZN on a 3 year and what it does in the Aug-Dec period. Are things good enough for it to surge more than the recent 20% move up and get through the 220 area? Percentage wise, the past moves signal it can do almost 100% in this same time frame. The 220 are should be interesting. Oh yeah, this time of year, you always want to know when earnings are - I think they are in mid-October.

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to forex, we had a lot of intra-day equity volatility which moved forex nicely today (the equity/USD relationship is back in play) and if it weren't for my "too picky" locations, I would have been 2 for 2, but I decided to give it a little more room and just missed a few DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES. First up the GBP/USD and then the EUR/USD

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPY Ranges and Fundamental News Importance

Good Morning,
Technically, SPX is back on its lows - support is in the 1140 level. A break below this gives us a good look at how the key 1110 will do. Again, the risk is to the downside IF economic data worsens.

Fundamentally, let's look at retail sales on Wednesday and claims on Thursday. We have some PPI and CPI data in there, but price pressures are abating a bit and the Fed has stated that there isn't inflation, so I am thinking that inflation data doens't hold as much weight regarding equity market movement.
Forex was a little on the rangebound side today, but the GBP/USD had a lot of nice moves and countermoves. A DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE (actually two came into line today):

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPY: Fundamentals and Technicals

Good Morning,
No charts to post today - just a quick update on the fundamentals out there and a broad overview of the technicals.
Unemployment claims were just a bit outside expectations (above expectations) as usual. Not sure if this is good or bad for the equity markets (see QE 1-ongoing...) but it isn't good for your friends who are not being hired!
Bernanke popped onto the calendar at 1:30pm Eastern and then Obama speaks tonight. The fireworks continue each and every day, so be aware and trade with care!
Technically, the dollar is stronger agains the GBP (on support), the EUR (breaking support), the CAD and the CHF (see intervention). It is flat to slightly weaker against the AUD and NZD.
Equities are in the 112ish to 123ish range - roughly 10 points which is about a 10% move from top to bottom.  GLD is heading back towards its resistance level of 190 (will it triple top, fail or blast through?)
The VIX is on recent support in the low 30's and I am not using that as an indicator of future movement and/or direction. We still have 6 trading days until options expiration. Looking good for the risk mitigation to profit and the long portfolio to have an up month - but again, 6 days is a VERY LONG WAY AWAY in these markets.
Local Tip: Last night's webinar will be on Youtube shortly.
Local Tip 2: Follow intraday updates at IBFX's Connect

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

SPY is Rangebound! (And Strong(er) Dollar

Good Morning,
From the sky is falling to everything is fine. We are bouncing back and forth in one big range in the broad markets, support is holding in most stocks and sectors and the dollar is all over the place. Makes for very, very astute trading and knowing when not to trade is just as important.
So money management, trade risk and realistic expectations with an emotional attatchment are key.
Rubber band action in the SPY (otherwise known as support and resistance):


Past performance is not indicative of future results
For all of you that thought GLD was going through, yesterday was clearly a sign that 1900 is providing resistance as we trade up there, but then sold off heavily as equities held in and then with the continuation of the equity rally today, GLD had no reason to stay bid:


Past performance is not indicative of future results
Remember, with news happening almost every night and markets gapping up or down on a daily basis (and doing it in triple digit moves), there is opportunity to protect your positions, whether they are GLD or equities.
Moving to forex, I mentioned that the dollar is all over the place. It is weak agains the AUD and the NZD, but strong against all other pairs today. What does that mean when the GBP and EUR can't get off yesterday's lows. The last time we had equities rally hard and the dollar stay strong, equities got punished the very next day. (They were up at the 123 level). Maybe we need to get to the top of the rangebound area we are playing in before sellers come back in. Maybe the GBP and EUR need another day of convining by the equity rally to begin their push off of support.


Past performance is not indicative of future results


Past performance is not indicative of future results
Free Webinar this evening at 9:30pm Eastern.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian



Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPY Nearing Support as is GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Good Morning,
I can't stress this enough. The Jobs number is HUGE! Aside from the Fed, it sends equity markets into trends for days and days and days IF the number misses expectations by a large amount.
We expected 70k and we got zero. That is a VERY bearish number. If it weren't for the "Fed in the background", we would be down another 500 points or more over the next few days.
BUT, we do have the "Fed in the background" and we are hanging in there. Check out this support line:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
If jobs data gets worse (see Thursday's unemployment claims for our next look at jobs data), I think that we are going to new lows. I do not think 110 will hold.
Moving to forex, we have a short term chart of the GBP/USD with an early BUFFALO BOUNCE that worked and then one that didn't. I stayed out of things today as overnight news in the CHF and the fact that the dollar stayed on its highs all day against the GBP and the EUR did not bode well for fading its strength. The three charts with the intra-day first followed by the inter-day. The inter-day may be giving some of the longer term forex traders a look at shorting the dollar at these levels as support may be found??

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, equities are getting "cheap" BUT can they get CHEAPER? If they can, selling puts may be fun, but location, location and timing, timing. AND if the USD/Equity relationship holds true, could the support levels in the GBP and the EUR be sliced through?
Free Webinar tomorrow night at 9:30pm Eastern

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPY, Weekly Wrap-Up, Look Ahead, and Forex Day Trades

Good Morning,
Data this week was neutral to weak to very, very weak (see today's jobs report). BUT, the markets are still hanging in there as the threat of some type of intervention is still out there. It is always looming and rumors rule, so trade with appropriate size, pick your levels and don't get stubbon.
Speaking of levels, I had a nice DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE hooking up and watching the USD/equity relationship, I thought, this is it for the day. Get green and shut down as traders are fleeing for the beaches on the East Coast.
BUT, I missed it by a pip. Here it is on the NZD/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to SPY, we definitely have resistance in the 121-124 area and we have a small, short term trendline coming into play. If we break it, look for the lows at 110 to be very, very key!

Past performance is not indicative of future results
I do think we should be down more on the jobs number (see Fed intervention prevention), but overall, we did move from 124 to 118, so percentage wise, that is significant. But, I think we have more downside potential and I am not sure the bottom trendline can hold, ESPECIALLY if we get economic data that worsens.

You know I love support and resistance (see more information on resistance below as I am offering a free webinar on the topic next Wednesday. Look at XLF and NFLX, in that order. Are they approaching attractive levels? I could use another solid down day and get us closer to the support level:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Next week is shortened due to the holiday so, lots of data in 4 days:
**ISM Services - will it hold above 50 - I think so.
**Claims
**ECB Press Conference
**Obama
**Only 9 more trading days until September options expire - looking good with the defense I put on at the 121-124 level.

See you next week on the free Inberbank FX Webinar tackling current fundamentals and techncials as well as an in-depth look at Resistance.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.