The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon Traders and Investors,

We had one nice move in the forex markets. When the stock market moved from up 40 to down 20, the dollar strengthened nicely (see relationship based trading!) and I was able to catch most of the move.

I thought the equity markets would continue south so I held on to a portion of it while I was on with my Midwest clients, but alas... the stock market rebounded (see beachball in water effect!) and I was taken out of the final part of the trade. Still hanging on to a short USD/CAD play and looking for a rise to the 1.0300 handle.

I will be back on Friday for unemployment (fingers crossed for downside surprise) as the next few days are hectic. Holiday dinner, friends from Pittsburgh, sister-in-law, and snow, snow, snow.

Could this be it? Could we get 2 feet to end the season? Deer Valley will be rocking as all hosts are on deck for a large corporate booking so I am sure the markets will do something more significant tomorrow and Thursday - just my luck!

Have fun and trade smart - remember your risk management and portfolio management. If you overtrade your size and don't find the right timing for your strategy/trading style, you are going to be in a world of trouble!

K-I-S-S! Keep it simple stupid and stay true to your trading plan!

Have a great couple days and Go DUKE and BUTLER
Oh yeah, remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

The weather was beautiful - blue bird days, warm temps, great NCAA games at the Delta Center and even some time for yardwork!

Double Capt and Coke's at Lumpy's kind of put a damper on any market reading/prep I was supposed to catch up on during Saturday evening. Then it continued as the Deer Valley mountain hosts got together for the annual photo shoot - thanks High West Distillery lemonade fizz and rye.

It is the final 2 weeks of the ski season, last chance for a tour with your favorite mountain host!

It was also a fairly calm (bullish) weekend so no reason for futures not to point to an upward open. We were up 50 points to open the day and have backed off since then. The DOW seems to have a little resistance at 10,900, but without being able to selloff much, there is still the strong underlying bid.

Let's take a look at the SPY chart - notice our highest close at 117.41. Other than that, we seem to selloff. Again, we are NOT selling off much though!!
As far as sectors go, commodities have been very strong - take a look at USO as it pushes to recent highs - can it fight through? Seems like a supply/demand thing - the higher the markets go, the higher the demand for oil/commodities, the higher these stocks go:

Our socially responsible stock for the day - First Solar - we have been tracking it all month and the story remains the same: strong market, strong demand, strong oil, strong alternative energy


As I mentioned, no relationships in the forex markets except by region: EUR and GBP a little weak to dollar. AUD, NZD and CAD (commodity based) very, very strong to dollar


Have a great week and keep your powder dry as we have Manufacturing numbers, claims and of course, unemployment.

P.S. GO DUKE!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Not much to report again - the EUR gained some strength against the dollar, but still very near recent lows.

The SPX is very near recent highs as it looks for 1200 and the Dow looks for 11,000 - what a calendar year it has been!!

**Not much has changed in the charts on the major indexes - more buyers than sellers.

**Not much has changed in the recent past in forex as the topsy turvy action continues - every currency has become its own entity and NOTHING seems to be running together. Makes for a difficult trade, but at least there are some moves/counter moves.

**The bond market got crushed, sending rates higher

So it is a pretty lackadaisical Friday with low volume, little econ data that moved the markets and overall tight ranges.

Until Monday it is and remember, we have a lot of economic data next week, including the all important jobs number on Friday.

Have a great weekend as there should be over a foot in the Cottonwoods! Get it while you can!

The Local's Take: Pre-Ski Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Claims are in-line and Bernanke is up next.

What will he say? Stay tuned.

Looks like a flat to modestly bullish start to the day and easily within reach of new highs in all indices.

Have a wonderful day and remember the sun screen!

The Lcoal's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good afternoon,

Well, forex was rocking today. Count them: 3 moves today. That is about 3 times the usual!!

We hit a bunch of double fall line trades today as the markets topped out, came off their highs and then resume to new highs.

The EUR and GBP both took a break in the middle of the day and the dollar strengthened slightly - it was a Buffalo Bounce/slash equity trade for a little while as well.

Again, not the cleanest trade as the dollar is performing differently to cross pairs depending on the underlying fundamental for each specific cross pair.

It takes:

• a trading plan
• money management
• patience to wait for the opportunity
  
• and then discipline to implement the plan

With these steps and action plan in place, it provides the tools to be a successful trader/investor. Without these, I doubt that luck will be profitable over the long term.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Nothing wrong with a little beach time during Spring Break. No, this time I don't mean the Beach at Deer Valley, which I am sure was rocking.

I mean the real beach - Jacksonville Beach, specifically the TPC Sawgrass Marriott. Great service at the hotel and beautiful surroundings. They were readying the course for the upcoming early May tournament. After a rough, cold, dry, windy winter, they have lots of prep work to do. The course is quite brown, so in a few weeks, the gallery may be yelling: "Get on the brown!!"

Forty eight hours and very little sleep. NCAA games, standing up in a wedding, meeting new friends and working out in heat and humidity.

Now it is time to get back to work and looks like the markets are going to try to add a little volatility to the mix. The Fed seems to be in the news daily, the health care bill is likely to pass (in some for) and we have now come off from our highs in the SPY again.

Taking a look at SPY, the old resistance level is still support. A close significantly below 115 would void out that support level. We shall see...

The forex markets are pretty slow today - not much to affect them other than the GBP and the EUR are near recent lows against the dollar.

The socially responsible trade of the month, First Solar (FSLR) trade is working out nicely. We were long at 100 and shorted at the trend line at 115.00

Could be a quick end to trading today if we stay in this range. Remember, we were set to open down 6 points in the SPX, but opened flat. The bid is still in tact.

If the markets are mellow, that means a mellow workout for me - yoga to stretch out after the long weekend of flying back and forth across the country. If you haven't seen it, the movie pick of the week is The Blindside. A good way to kill time on the Delta red eye.

Have a great start to the week and if necessary, I will update you on forex trading opportunities, but otherwise, see you tomorrow morning.

Be Environmentally Cool

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello Traders and Investors,

Sixty degrees, St Pat's Day, Spring Break, the Beach at Deer Valley's Silver Lake Lodge - priceless!

The markets are again, flat but we did talk about some good trading opportunities in the monthly Park City Trading/Investing Club - see Monday and Tuesday's blog about the breakout on the SPY chart.

Here are a few forex trades of the day:

Double Fall Line Trade on NZD



Buffalo Bounce on EUR



From there, the relationships broke down, with the CHF showing extreme strength to the dollar. Another, ho-hum day in the equity "everything is great" bull market.

I rolled out of March into April - the grind up was slow, but definitely had some pain associated with it! Oh well, commodities, retailers and the like are at or near new highs.

I am off to Jacksonville for a wedding, sun, beach, a first round NCAA game and some gator tails at Sneakers!

Back at you on Monday.
Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Well, surprise, surprise, we rallied into the close yesterday. Check out the rebound in the SPY - we continue to close above the key level of 115. Today, we are up as well, so between the TREND, options expiration week and the FOMC, it seems likely that we will push higher.



The term "extended" and dissenters may give the markets to reverse, but is there enough reason for the Fed to change their stance. Free money right? Everything is fine right?

One point I would like to get across is inflation. There isn't any if you look at the strength of the US dollar compared to other currencies when international fear, tension, downturns occur. If you think the Greenback is weak, look at other currencies during worrisome times.

If there isn't demand due to stagnant economy, then we don't need as many natural resources, thus price declines. We can only have inflation in a runaway economy and I don't see another runaway economy to the upside after last year's upmove. We can still go up, but not in the amount we did in 2009 and probably at a slower pace.

What does that mean? Covered calls of course - slow grind upwards is the perfect setting for selling time decay. And if the markets break? You have protection in place and can add more by doubling down, buying puts, etc...

In the forex markets, a Buffalo Bounce showed up after a 200 Pip move. The USD/CHF also had one a little earlier in the day.


Now that I am playing with house money for the day, going to be very cautious during FOMC as you never know, it could be a whopper!!! In big ranges, it doesn't take much size to have a very strong day! If nothing happens, it is outside to play as:

Park City is hitting 50 degrees today. Salt Lake will be in the 60's. Get out for a road bike ride on the roads in the Preserve - just be careful in the corners as rocks are present. Take is S-L-O-W as the workout is in the uphills!

Remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Market Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Sorry for the late post, but the markets actually moved more than 10 points in one direction this morning.

I have a few charts and even a trade to post. I skipped out on heading to the Cottonwoods in order to trade. A mountain host tried to drag me there, but I had a feeling Monday would be a little selloff. Plus the snow can't be that much better over there.

The days are warm and long and the sun really destroys the snow quickly. Nothing wrong with the manicured groomers at Deer Valley though.

Let me digress, before the charts - I love this time of year. St. Patrick's Day (a Chicago tradition!), warmer temps, and March Madness. If any of you are looking for a pool, check out Fisch Madness as it is run very, very well with lots of side games available. You must have a referral, so drop my name if you are interested. I am off to Jacksonville this weekend, hope to catch the Dukies and then back home for the regionals in SLC at the Delta Center - sorry, it fits much better. If Pitt can make it to the sweet 16, you may see yours truly sitting courtside.

OK, back to the markets. I posted this week's calendar on last Monday's poste - D'oh! So not much to say, except, wait a minute, can you hear it....FOMC! Bernanke testifies on Wednesday and unemployment claims on Thursday. Friday is triple witching. BIG week!

To the charts and first up, the SPY:

The close is very important - if we close below 115.00, could the old resistance/new support level now be new resistance? It will be interesting to see what we do at this level. Also, we have been trading UP going into the previous few FOMC meetings - seems like the markets are daring the FOMC not to say extended. If we trade down today and tomorrow into the afternoon report, I don't know if we recover. I don't expect much from the Fed, but you never know, so stay tuned!

The second chart of the day is a day-trade - the EUR/USD and a Buffalo Bounce:

As far as my SRI play, I am still looking at First Solar (FSLR) and thinking it is around a downward sloping trendline, maybe time to take off our bullish play and implement a little coverage/insurance:




Remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and GO P-I-T-T!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Well, we officially have a higher close in the SPY as of yesterday, so the higher high, higher low scenario continues. What does that mean? An uptrend, of course!!!

BUT, true chartists will be looking at the close in the SPY over the next few sessions. What happens if we barely violate the old high and then close below that level? The adage of old resistance becoming new support wouldn't hold.

Let's take a look at the chart:
Next, we have our trend following trade. SPY up, oil demand up, oil prices up, therefore, alternative energy stocks up. Remember in the beginning of March when we sold the 100 AND 95 strik naked PUTS on First Solar - FSLR. Well here is how the stock has performed in the past 2 weeks:

To wrap up the week, we had better than expected retail sales, but does news matter? It seems the stock market goes up to sideways no matter what. What will get it to go higher? What will get it to turn around and head lower?

Forex market update: D-E-A-D, A-G-A-I-N-!-! Keeping the powder dry for next week, or the next, or the next...

Did I get out for a run yesterday? No. But I did get 30 minutes of yoga in - keeping the back and hamstrings loose as I skied hard on a mountain tour Wednesday afternoon and looks like we may get a little snow for tomorrow's day on the mountain. Deer Valley should be nice over the next few days as crowds will be solid, but spread out ove 21 lifts and amazing, wide boulevards to ski the soft corduroy.

Today, I will get out for a run before heading off for Local's meetings (final Tucson, AZ prep) and clients in the afternoon.

Have a fantastic weekend and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun and attending the final evening of the Wild and Scenic Film Festival at TMI.

The Local's Take: Y-A-W-N: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

B-O-R-I-N-G Part II.

Investors say yay! Stocks are staying near highs and your dividends are being reinvested - more buyers than sellers should create upward pressure and if we break 1150 on SPX, look out above!

Traders say, boring!! The Vix in the teens means no volatility, meaning not many trading opportunities. One a day, if that. So you better be right and take small losses if wrong because you don't get a second chance to make the losing trade back.

Two charts for you:

SPX - a 6 month chart

VIX - our "fear" gauge on a yearly chart

As they mentioned on Fast Money, it is SUPER cheap to buy protection on your portfolio with options either on stocks or ETF's or even the indexes themselves.

FOREX - I am not even going to mention the forex markets!! D-E-A-D on an intraday trading horizon during the US equity session.

Have a great day - I am off for a 5 miler in the Hidden Cove area. Great views of the southern exposed Jeremy Ranch area - mountain biking can't be far away with these temps. Or will we get another April storm when most of us are ready for spring???

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and even cooler by attending the Wild and Scenic Film Festival over the next 2 nights.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

B-O-R-I-N-G

That sums up the markets today - nothing going on in forex or equities. BUT, since there are no sellers in the market, it seems like the underlying bid continues and the upside risk is there if you are short. More buyers than sellers equal upmarkets.

Thanks to all of the U of U students and their feedback. Next semester I will be running the same Intro class, but I will be asking for an extra 1.5 hours so we can get into more examples and spend more time on technical analysis.

I will also be running a breakout session on Fibonacci Retracements - should be an exciting look at charts and a specific indicator.

Looking forward to heading to the mountain tomorrow as 8-14" is expected.

I will be sending a confirmation email out to all PC TIC members about next Tuesday's meeting.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool

The Local's Take: Trade Update

We got our Buffalo Bounce in the GBP/USD - took profits a little early, but a winner on primarily a rangebound day is good enough for me - shutting down the platform.

That's why forex has been nice - the equities have been languishing unless you are buying dips, but there is enough news around the world affecting the dollar that forex is providing almost daily opportunities

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Nothing exciting over the weekend, so status quo in the markets - the strong bid persists and futures look to open flat to up.

Let's take a quick look at our socially responsible stock play - First Solar (FSLR):
I mentioned selling naked puts or bull put spreads when it hit support at 100 a few weeks ago.
Since then, SPY has rallied, thus demand for oil has helped keep prices above 80/barrle and thus, the "relationship" with energy prices and alternative energy stayed in tact. FSLR has rallied from 100 to 108, an 8% gain, throw in 10 days of time decay and I am moving my stop up to break even/lock in profits at the 100 level. The goal is to make through another 5 trading days and get to the weekend for 2 more days of time decay and a profit should be ensured.

The put I sold was valued about $3.5 and is now trading for $1.15, with a 1:1 risk to reward, that is almost a 66% gain.




I am going to create a "collar" by putting on a bear call on USO as prices have gone through the roof and premiums are pretty healthy with 2 weeks to go until March expiration.


Even without a stop, you would be risking 3 to make 1. Not bad for a credit spread, but I would probably risk 2 to make 1 or even less as I don't want to just throw away gains made on the FSLR trade. Below is the chart, a huge rally over the past few weeks. I am looking for it to just stall at these levels - but being short oil is admittedly risky given any rise in international tensions.



Forex seems pretty sideways for now, but we know that can change in a hurry as the leverage allows for a small move to create an entry. I will update any trade opportunities with a quick sentence or two.

A quick note on trading psychology - trading is not gambling. But if you would like to participate in the best homegrown March Madness pool, please send me an email - you need a referral to join.

Speaking of March - there isn't a better time than March to ski. Long sun exposure, warm temps, soft snow on top of a great base. You can ski a few hours in the morning and then get a run in during the afternoon, or a skate ski, or if you are really brave, a road ride.

You can top it off with some homegrown rye at the High West Distillery on Park Ave - comfy decor, great food, fantastic drinks.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: The Week Ahead

Good Evening Traders and Investors,

Take a quick look at the upcoming economic calendar for the week:

Forex Factory

We have the FOMC statement on Tuesday, unemployment claims on Thursday, CPI, and PPI.
The FOMC should be tame as Bernanke was just in front of the press.

All of the broad markets are above, at or near their recent January highs. Will we surge above them? There seem to be enough traders caught short that there is a real possibility that we will.
Next up? 11000 for the DOW.

I am still in a protective position - using a percent or two of the portfolio to protect certain sectors - retail, and commodities, since commodities have raced over the past few weeks to regain their January highs.

Regarding Forex, the markets are all over the place - no correlation between the rally in treasuries and consistency between different regions of the world. The EU is weak, CAD is strong. Trading rules (and rules and rules) are very important!

The final U of U Intro to Personal Trading/Investing class is tomorrow night. I will give a blog recap on Tuesday.

I will also check in over the next few days regarding market opportunities and trades, until I am called to my post at Deer Valley on Wed/Thur. Spring Break is in session and the forecast for skiers look to be strong. Come find your favorite mountain host for a tour - the groomers should be fun!!

Snow is in the forecast for the early part of the week - funny how it snows when temps are supposed to be in the high 30's. The snow varies greatly between lower and higher elevations - so Empire and the North side of Bald is the place to be.

Have a great week and Be Environmentally Cool

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good afternoon Traders and Investors,

I apologize for not writing this week, but I have a great excuse. I danced, danced, danced and... it worked. Park City was blessed with more than a foot of snow in a 24 hour period. I heard 9990 was knee deep with face shots galore.

Another reason for not posting stories is that my father is in town. Quality time with Poppa Kahn and little Shane. Tomorrow is a family ski day, one day after the storm, but the trees at Deer Valley should still be soft and deep.

The markets are, well, still bullish. The SPY is very close to its old high of 1150 - double top or breakout to new highs? We shall see. The Nasdaq is off to new highs since the previous one in January.

I am still not convinced the upside has much more, so protection is in place - oil and retailers are a few sectors that I am using to protect the portfolio.

Forex has been all over the place - GBP and EUR weak, AUD, NZD and CAD very, very strong. All relationships are breaking down, so you must adapt!!

A shout out to the U of U Lifelong Learning class - we covered a ton of material last week. We will review shorting, Fibonacci's, Moving Averages, Stochastics and MACD's to begin the final class on Monday.

Thanks to all of the students who have emailed with questions/stock plays.

Have a great weekend, be environmentally cool and see you on the slopes.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Monday Morning Traders and Investors,

It is going to reach 40 degrees in Park City - great day to get outside. I have heard from 2 inside sources that the snow in the Cottonwoods is still very, very nice. Knee deep reports are coming in from Brighton - out of bounds hiking off the back.

I am expecting the resorts to have great numbers through the next month as Spring Break starts its weekly cycle of "this region or that region". See Southeast spring break, Texas spring break, Cali spring break, etc... Easter should keep the first week of April strong as well. I must say, I am pleasantly surprised at the numbers, so I guess the economy is just fine.

If you plan on a few days at Deer Valley, ask for your favorite mountain host (me!) and a tour with insider tips awaits you!!!

To the markets - the bid remains the same - strong. Even after an ISM number that came in weak, stocks are rallying. I would say that this level is a nice level to get short at, with tight stops. I am trying to get short oil, but my limit order hasn't been filled, yet...

Let's look at SPY:

I am not saying that this Elliot Wave count is correct, but I do see an area where I wouldn't mind shorting the market. The trend is up, but this area is low enough risk that I am happy spending a percentage of my portfolio on insurance. REMEMBER, we have unemployment on Friday. If I was managing money, I would buy insurance just in case we get a downside surprise. If you look at weekly unemployment claims, they seem to be pointing that way. Thursday's claims could provide some insight as to how the traders prep/setup going into Friday.

Next, we have our socially responsible stock for the day: First Solar (FSLR)

The stock went from 127 to 100 in a short time and if you look at the 3 year chart, 100 has been providing BIG support. If the SPY stays strong and supply for oil stays strong, I would think that FSLR would hang in there as well. Regardless, picking up a few hundred shares at 100 minus the premium gets the buy price closer to $97.00. If assigned, I will be cautious and sell at or in the money calls. I am cautious though as a break of 100 signals weakness in the stock.

Finally, we have our forex trade of the day: a nice DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE on the EUR/USD. With the equity rally, we had a nice retracement up of the the overnight move.

There you have it! Off to the doctors for a well visit for the little one! May see a BB in the USD/CAD if it keeps dropping, so I may leave an order in. Funny though that the USD is so weak against the CDN and I can't get filled on my oil orders.

Have a great trading day and stay tuned for an update on tonight'ss U of U class.
Be Environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.