The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Monday Morning Traders and Investors,

It is going to reach 40 degrees in Park City - great day to get outside. I have heard from 2 inside sources that the snow in the Cottonwoods is still very, very nice. Knee deep reports are coming in from Brighton - out of bounds hiking off the back.

I am expecting the resorts to have great numbers through the next month as Spring Break starts its weekly cycle of "this region or that region". See Southeast spring break, Texas spring break, Cali spring break, etc... Easter should keep the first week of April strong as well. I must say, I am pleasantly surprised at the numbers, so I guess the economy is just fine.

If you plan on a few days at Deer Valley, ask for your favorite mountain host (me!) and a tour with insider tips awaits you!!!

To the markets - the bid remains the same - strong. Even after an ISM number that came in weak, stocks are rallying. I would say that this level is a nice level to get short at, with tight stops. I am trying to get short oil, but my limit order hasn't been filled, yet...

Let's look at SPY:

I am not saying that this Elliot Wave count is correct, but I do see an area where I wouldn't mind shorting the market. The trend is up, but this area is low enough risk that I am happy spending a percentage of my portfolio on insurance. REMEMBER, we have unemployment on Friday. If I was managing money, I would buy insurance just in case we get a downside surprise. If you look at weekly unemployment claims, they seem to be pointing that way. Thursday's claims could provide some insight as to how the traders prep/setup going into Friday.

Next, we have our socially responsible stock for the day: First Solar (FSLR)

The stock went from 127 to 100 in a short time and if you look at the 3 year chart, 100 has been providing BIG support. If the SPY stays strong and supply for oil stays strong, I would think that FSLR would hang in there as well. Regardless, picking up a few hundred shares at 100 minus the premium gets the buy price closer to $97.00. If assigned, I will be cautious and sell at or in the money calls. I am cautious though as a break of 100 signals weakness in the stock.

Finally, we have our forex trade of the day: a nice DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE on the EUR/USD. With the equity rally, we had a nice retracement up of the the overnight move.

There you have it! Off to the doctors for a well visit for the little one! May see a BB in the USD/CAD if it keeps dropping, so I may leave an order in. Funny though that the USD is so weak against the CDN and I can't get filled on my oil orders.

Have a great trading day and stay tuned for an update on tonight'ss U of U class.
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