SPX - Nothing Has Changed...

Good Afternoon,

What has changed lately? A lot or a little?

Fundamentally, very little when it comes to the US economic calendar. Jobs data in the form of weekly claims are leveling off and some may even say "improving".

Fundamentally, a LOT given international intervention, austerity, easing, etc... whatever you want to call it is fine by me.

Trading and investing wise - a lot! You have to be on your game to trade these markets as things can change in a hurry! Playing the ranges are working, except for when there are news bombs. When you are trading leveraged products, these news bombs can affect the markets in a big way and as you know, you don't need a big move to take you out if you are over-leverarging your positions. That is all I will say about trading psychology today - I promise!

Let's just talk about the big picture for a moment. The "professional" money managers think there is a lot of cash on the sidelines. Companies ARE making money. Earnings are GOOD! The markets are "undervalued" and at good "ratios" as most analysts are saying. So, if everything goes as planned overseas, we should see a breakout to the upside. I said it months ago though, I think by the time we get towards the 1300-1350 level, we will see sellers come into play. After that, I think we will be further downt the road with economic data and will be able to see if that is a great level to play the short side. In between 1200ish and the 1300 level could come quickly, so I am not sure how I will play it - I will decide as we rally.

BUT, do I think we SHOULD be rallying up there? NO. Will we? Chances are we will as the markets are reacting to government intervention, not reality. 

Fun stuff!!

Technically, very little. The markets are sideways - for months and for the week. Here is just one of many examples, the EUR/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

For some intraday trades (and there were lots), here is the DOUBLE FALL LINE on the AUD/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

And a short term DOUBLE TOP on the GBP/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Remember, I am a buyer of the dollar in good locations as a hedge, not necessarily as a money making trade. If it works, great!

These are trying markets, trade according to your situation!!

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Coach Brian

Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.