The Local's Take: Holiday Commentary

Good Afternoon,
Easter is a huge holiday around the world - in Germany it is as big or bigger than Christmas and I always remember the 4 day weekend while trading Bunds, Bobls and Shatz in Chicago.  I probably traded a few shots over those long weekends as well!
So if you are trading in the markets, you know that volume on Friday and today were well below normal, so I don't make anything of a 2.5 point pullback in the SPY. Remember, we have retraced over 80% of our 2007-2009 bear market move, so even if we pull back 500 points, we are still in a bull trend. How high will it go? Not sure, but I do expect higher highs before we consolidate or actually see a change in trend.
I tell all of my clients that depending on how long you are in the markets (what percentage you have long in equities, mutual funds, real estate, etc...) to look for high probability and low risk trading areas.
Before we get to that, let's talk about the BUSY economic calendar:
**Earnings
**Durable Goods
**FOMC
**Bernanke is speaking (bernankspeak)
**initial claims
**GDP
Moving into sectors, let's take a look at a stock in the volatile energy sector, CNX:


Has it already left the station? Pretty valid trendline as it has touched many points and has been in existence for quite a while. You have to be bullish the commodity sector...what a great sector into forex!
The dollar has been getting hammered for weeks on end, today it is pretty sideways to flat, but again, that is due to little participation as we have a bank holiday in many countries. 

Hard to belive we are approaching May Day and then soon after that, summer vacation. Remember, we aren't as bright in America as our European counterparts. They actually use all of their alotted vacation time, whereas we don't. 

So here we are, on our highs and we are about 4 to 5 weeks from summer vacation. I don't see the markets derailing any time soon and I don't see the Fed changing their stance anytime soon, so it is more of the same. Stay long and protect lightly when necessary depending on your exposure.

I took advantage of last week's incredible rally to write some light protection.

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian