Looks like another setup day ahead of Bernanke's testimony. Yesterday was like watching paint dry and I don't have much expectations for large movements today.... but you never know....
It is a brisk 7 degrees outside (last night it dropped to 2) in Park City. For you powder hounds, the snow will be light and fluffy as the cold temps dried out the snow. STAY NORTH as the even though it is cold, the sun is much higher on the horizon than in Dec/Jan or for that matter, February.
Where has the season gone?
Where has consumer confidence gone? A MAJOR drop, way outside of expectations is causing the markets to move to the downside. For all of the U of U students out there, a special THANK YOU for your attendance and participation! If you are working on your assignments, then you are paying attention to the economic calendar and this release!! This number is WAY below analyst estimates!!
A few of you asked me at the end of the class what my thoughts are on the markets: cautious. The overall trend has been up, but over the past 2 weeks we gained back almost 600 points and I wouldn't want to be bullish in the markets AFTER that type of run up. Here is a look at a chart of the SPY on a 3 month timeframe:
Thus, I am glad the markets are up, but I am investing in protection and willing to lose a small percentage of my account if the markets go up. Buying protection is very cheap and my wallet would hate me if I didn't spend the money. Plus with Bernanke speaking, I wanted to have some extra protection on. If I am wrong and the markets go up, small loss and nice gain in the overall portfolio.
Not much going on over in the forex realm - but the trend continues - dollar strength. A huge move last night and now we are sideways with a bit more strength after the recent Consumer Confidence number. Overall though, still pretty dead in the water ahead of Bernanke tomorrow.
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