The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

WOW! That was like the old days!! I am obviously late in writing this commentary, but better late than never. Just an aside, the weather in Park City (and Deer Valley) is uber-beautiful and I was able to spend the afternoon on a 24 foot ladder fixing my heat tape with my father-in-law stabilizing from below. Fun stuff! No falls this time, so ski season is still in tact. I am looking forward to some late night soccer practice at the rec center if enough people show up.

The markets were rocking today due to confirmation, rumor, etc... of the Greek debt bailout. The dollar got hammered, then strengthened, then found equilibrium. Up 9% in the account in a few seconds isn't bad, could have been. I could have been up 50% if I waited about.....5 seconds longer, but no complaints here.

Let's peak at a chart of the GBP/USD so you can see the swings as well as an intraday SPY chart:

It is very important to have a trading plan and trade with the correct portfolio sizing ratio but it really becomes important on days like today when the GBP/USD can move 200 pips in a matter of 45 minutes. With each pip worth $1, that makes for a nice day if you are on the right side of it and get filled higher than you thought. It can be a bad day if you are on the opposite end.

The point: stops aren't guaranteed so trade with money that you can lose - it should be an amount that doesn't cause you to bat an eyelash if it goes against you for a myriad of reasons.
If it is poor trading and location and timing, well that is another story.

I usually trade with .05 of my portfolio at risk on any one trade - conservative yes, but it is about hitting consistent singles, not swinging for the fences and having a strikeout ratio like Barry Bonds.

We can take away from the charts the relationship between equity movement and the risk trade - good things happen, the dollar is weak, but when risk enters the market, the dollar is the safe haven trade.

Sort of like a flight to quality. Speaking of quality, Locals Have More Fun offers the most high quality, comfy organic cotton on its website. Plus it is made sustainably so not only does it feel good, buy you will feel good purchasing and wearing it.

So why not take a look at a socially responsible stock - Wal Mart - they recycle and put in CFL lightbulbs so why not:



Another flight to quality - Deer Valley and Park City - ranked number 1 and 4 by readers of Ski Magazine respectively. That makes 3 years in a row at number one for DV. I would compare Snowmass and Beaver Creek as offering a similar "overall product". So come to Utah, ski withing 45 minutes of landing at the airport and never wait in a line!

One more fun stock - AXP - if we get another down move of about 7 percent or so, I am a player:



Off to the slopes the next 2 days but watch out for Bernanke, retail sales and unemployment claims.

Be Environmentally Cool,
Brian