Friday, February 26, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
Sideways! Let's get right to it - here is the SPY on a monthly chart focusing on this week's action.
We received the "extended" term from the Fed Chief but also received the "at some point" it will end term. Talk about speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Perfect "Greenspanspeak".
Forex is moving a little - I tried some small Buffalo Bounces and Double top trades, but to no avail. With a trading plan and money management, February has been a good month so no complaints!! On to March and MAYBE volatility will continue to pick up... MAYBE....
The calendar is full of data over the next week - including the all important Unemployment report.
The snow is super soft at Deer Valley - skiing Lucky Star is kind of like floating. The groomers are killer! If you are going off-piste, the sun is high in the horizon, so stay North and ski early!
Have a great weekend and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel!
Sideways! Let's get right to it - here is the SPY on a monthly chart focusing on this week's action.
We received the "extended" term from the Fed Chief but also received the "at some point" it will end term. Talk about speaking out of both sides of your mouth. Perfect "Greenspanspeak".
Forex is moving a little - I tried some small Buffalo Bounces and Double top trades, but to no avail. With a trading plan and money management, February has been a good month so no complaints!! On to March and MAYBE volatility will continue to pick up... MAYBE....
The calendar is full of data over the next week - including the all important Unemployment report.
The snow is super soft at Deer Valley - skiing Lucky Star is kind of like floating. The groomers are killer! If you are going off-piste, the sun is high in the horizon, so stay North and ski early!
Have a great weekend and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel!
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
Looks like another setup day ahead of Bernanke's testimony. Yesterday was like watching paint dry and I don't have much expectations for large movements today.... but you never know....
It is a brisk 7 degrees outside (last night it dropped to 2) in Park City. For you powder hounds, the snow will be light and fluffy as the cold temps dried out the snow. STAY NORTH as the even though it is cold, the sun is much higher on the horizon than in Dec/Jan or for that matter, February.
Where has the season gone?
Where has consumer confidence gone? A MAJOR drop, way outside of expectations is causing the markets to move to the downside. For all of the U of U students out there, a special THANK YOU for your attendance and participation! If you are working on your assignments, then you are paying attention to the economic calendar and this release!! This number is WAY below analyst estimates!!
A few of you asked me at the end of the class what my thoughts are on the markets: cautious. The overall trend has been up, but over the past 2 weeks we gained back almost 600 points and I wouldn't want to be bullish in the markets AFTER that type of run up. Here is a look at a chart of the SPY on a 3 month timeframe:
Thus, I am glad the markets are up, but I am investing in protection and willing to lose a small percentage of my account if the markets go up. Buying protection is very cheap and my wallet would hate me if I didn't spend the money. Plus with Bernanke speaking, I wanted to have some extra protection on. If I am wrong and the markets go up, small loss and nice gain in the overall portfolio.
Not much going on over in the forex realm - but the trend continues - dollar strength. A huge move last night and now we are sideways with a bit more strength after the recent Consumer Confidence number. Overall though, still pretty dead in the water ahead of Bernanke tomorrow.
Trade smart and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.
Looks like another setup day ahead of Bernanke's testimony. Yesterday was like watching paint dry and I don't have much expectations for large movements today.... but you never know....
It is a brisk 7 degrees outside (last night it dropped to 2) in Park City. For you powder hounds, the snow will be light and fluffy as the cold temps dried out the snow. STAY NORTH as the even though it is cold, the sun is much higher on the horizon than in Dec/Jan or for that matter, February.
Where has the season gone?
Where has consumer confidence gone? A MAJOR drop, way outside of expectations is causing the markets to move to the downside. For all of the U of U students out there, a special THANK YOU for your attendance and participation! If you are working on your assignments, then you are paying attention to the economic calendar and this release!! This number is WAY below analyst estimates!!
A few of you asked me at the end of the class what my thoughts are on the markets: cautious. The overall trend has been up, but over the past 2 weeks we gained back almost 600 points and I wouldn't want to be bullish in the markets AFTER that type of run up. Here is a look at a chart of the SPY on a 3 month timeframe:
Thus, I am glad the markets are up, but I am investing in protection and willing to lose a small percentage of my account if the markets go up. Buying protection is very cheap and my wallet would hate me if I didn't spend the money. Plus with Bernanke speaking, I wanted to have some extra protection on. If I am wrong and the markets go up, small loss and nice gain in the overall portfolio.
Not much going on over in the forex realm - but the trend continues - dollar strength. A huge move last night and now we are sideways with a bit more strength after the recent Consumer Confidence number. Overall though, still pretty dead in the water ahead of Bernanke tomorrow.
Trade smart and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.
Friday, February 19, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
I guess there are more buyers then sellers. Since I am still net long, I look for this as an opportunity to hedge the portfolio by throwing on some Covered Calls and Bear Call Spreads.
The risk to reward is to good not to.
The big story is the Fed starting to get creative and take back accomodation. Again, more buyers than sellers. Strange that they did it as a surprise after the close - I am not even going to try to explain why. By the way, has anyone been watching unemployment claims?
Am I surprised we retraced over 575.00 points in the past 2 weeks? Nope. Would I be surprised if we made new highs above 10,729 in $INDU and 1150 in $SPX, absolutely not.
February has been good as the downmove gave me an opportunity to sell option premium (expiring today) and I will play the range again by using this rally to sell option premiums for March.
February has also been a good month in the Forex markets as volatility gave us some decent intraday moves, but still relatively quiet as the equities are still in rally mode and volatility is still on the low side.
I am not overly optimistic on the markets making new highs, therefore I am putting in my protection as I mentioned above. It is kind of like the weather in Park City - lots of "snow" in the forecast but no real dumps. Don't get me wrong, the snow is soft and you can find powder and from what I have heard, Little Cottonwood has been skiing great. But, I still could use a resort day with 2.5 feet of light and fluffy. The warm temps are keeping "the greatest snow on earth" from really reaching that level. (The guests at Deer Valley that come from the Northwest laugh when I say this is heavy snow).
So my optimism isn't as high as the weathermen when they say a storm is coming. If it snows, it snows. If the stock market makes new highs, great, I will cover my short term bearish trades. If it happens, it happens!
To the charts and retracements are in focus:
SPY: You can see how far we have retraced over the past few weeks - new highs are definitely in sight - especially if we cross the "line of death" at the 76% level.
Next, let's visit the world of socially responsible stocks - Whole Foods - WFMI. I said to sell calls at the 61.8% retracement level and that afternoon, SP upgrades their status and debt. We now are at levels previously providing resistance. May be another place to sell premium, protect the position (with tight stops):
And now to a socially responsible stock of another kind (see their corporate philosophy/social philanthropy) section on their website- VALE. Let's face it, we will all need steel and iron in our lives and my money is in commodities for the long, long, long term. Again, just taking the huge rally as a chance to protect my position.
Finally forex - the dollar strengthened on last evening's news and we aren't seeing much covering of the dollar. The dollar is very strong as you can see in this chart that the GBP is near the lows of the day. Small retracements USUALLY lead to another move to the downside. It is just a matter of how confident are you and how little of a rally are you going to sell.
Have a great weekend - get outside and do something fun - and oh by the way, show your passion with Locals Have More Fun apparel. Be Environmentally Cool!
I guess there are more buyers then sellers. Since I am still net long, I look for this as an opportunity to hedge the portfolio by throwing on some Covered Calls and Bear Call Spreads.
The risk to reward is to good not to.
The big story is the Fed starting to get creative and take back accomodation. Again, more buyers than sellers. Strange that they did it as a surprise after the close - I am not even going to try to explain why. By the way, has anyone been watching unemployment claims?
Am I surprised we retraced over 575.00 points in the past 2 weeks? Nope. Would I be surprised if we made new highs above 10,729 in $INDU and 1150 in $SPX, absolutely not.
February has been good as the downmove gave me an opportunity to sell option premium (expiring today) and I will play the range again by using this rally to sell option premiums for March.
February has also been a good month in the Forex markets as volatility gave us some decent intraday moves, but still relatively quiet as the equities are still in rally mode and volatility is still on the low side.
*******
I am not overly optimistic on the markets making new highs, therefore I am putting in my protection as I mentioned above. It is kind of like the weather in Park City - lots of "snow" in the forecast but no real dumps. Don't get me wrong, the snow is soft and you can find powder and from what I have heard, Little Cottonwood has been skiing great. But, I still could use a resort day with 2.5 feet of light and fluffy. The warm temps are keeping "the greatest snow on earth" from really reaching that level. (The guests at Deer Valley that come from the Northwest laugh when I say this is heavy snow).
So my optimism isn't as high as the weathermen when they say a storm is coming. If it snows, it snows. If the stock market makes new highs, great, I will cover my short term bearish trades. If it happens, it happens!
To the charts and retracements are in focus:
SPY: You can see how far we have retraced over the past few weeks - new highs are definitely in sight - especially if we cross the "line of death" at the 76% level.
Next, let's visit the world of socially responsible stocks - Whole Foods - WFMI. I said to sell calls at the 61.8% retracement level and that afternoon, SP upgrades their status and debt. We now are at levels previously providing resistance. May be another place to sell premium, protect the position (with tight stops):
And now to a socially responsible stock of another kind (see their corporate philosophy/social philanthropy) section on their website- VALE. Let's face it, we will all need steel and iron in our lives and my money is in commodities for the long, long, long term. Again, just taking the huge rally as a chance to protect my position.
Finally forex - the dollar strengthened on last evening's news and we aren't seeing much covering of the dollar. The dollar is very strong as you can see in this chart that the GBP is near the lows of the day. Small retracements USUALLY lead to another move to the downside. It is just a matter of how confident are you and how little of a rally are you going to sell.
Have a great weekend - get outside and do something fun - and oh by the way, show your passion with Locals Have More Fun apparel. Be Environmentally Cool!
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
We had a very nice turnout last evening for the monthly get together of the PC TIC.
We saw some very interesting plays in SPX, the dollar and thus USO. What a nice range it has found - it seems to be in the middle right now, so a pretty tough play.
As far as our socially responsible stock play for the day - Whole Foods - WFMI has made a very nice run. It is sitting at the 61.8% retracement which gives it a 25% move to the upside over the past few weeks. As the PC TIC concluded, it should be an up week, so I am a little weary of getting in right now, but nonetheless, think it is a good area.
Getting into American Express (AXP) for my good friend Dr. G, we see that it has a double bottom and is peaking through the neckline. I think a good shorting opportunity is closer to 41.00 as we get between the 50 and 61.8 percent retracements:
Getting into the forex markets, it was a fantastic day with 3 of 3 trades hitting:
The trade above was entered at the same time as the trade below:
I closed down my trading platform and but kept open the charts and entered a small trade later in the day as the equity markets made new highs:
Not bad when you aren't expecting much movement/volatility.
I am off to Deer Valley for the next 2 days so I will see you Friday as I have a bunch of friends of friends to meet up with. Temps are in the 40's and if it weren't for a Locals Have More Fun meeting and soccer practice tonight, it would be a great day for a run outside. Snow is in the forecast, but the warm temps aren't giving me much hope for the regular light and fluffy Utah kind powder.
Have a great trading day week and Be Environmentally Cool
We had a very nice turnout last evening for the monthly get together of the PC TIC.
We saw some very interesting plays in SPX, the dollar and thus USO. What a nice range it has found - it seems to be in the middle right now, so a pretty tough play.
As far as our socially responsible stock play for the day - Whole Foods - WFMI has made a very nice run. It is sitting at the 61.8% retracement which gives it a 25% move to the upside over the past few weeks. As the PC TIC concluded, it should be an up week, so I am a little weary of getting in right now, but nonetheless, think it is a good area.
Getting into American Express (AXP) for my good friend Dr. G, we see that it has a double bottom and is peaking through the neckline. I think a good shorting opportunity is closer to 41.00 as we get between the 50 and 61.8 percent retracements:
Getting into the forex markets, it was a fantastic day with 3 of 3 trades hitting:
The trade above was entered at the same time as the trade below:
I closed down my trading platform and but kept open the charts and entered a small trade later in the day as the equity markets made new highs:
Not bad when you aren't expecting much movement/volatility.I am off to Deer Valley for the next 2 days so I will see you Friday as I have a bunch of friends of friends to meet up with. Temps are in the 40's and if it weren't for a Locals Have More Fun meeting and soccer practice tonight, it would be a great day for a run outside. Snow is in the forecast, but the warm temps aren't giving me much hope for the regular light and fluffy Utah kind powder.
Have a great trading day week and Be Environmentally Cool
Friday, February 12, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
Another beautiful day in Park City. The snow is falling and as we have had a below average year,
every few inches helps. Sounds like a commercial for something else...
Let's get right to the charts as volatility returned and it was quite an active day. Many Double Fall Line Trades that were profitable. They didn't even take any heat so it goes to show that being patient and waiting for the markets to come to you has its rewards. This is on top of a very successful day yesterday with many Buffalo Bounces.
For our socially responsible stock of the day, let's take a look at WFMI as it is up almost 11% in the past week - way outperforming the overall markets and it has resistance dead ahead at 30. Could be time to sell some March covered calls if you own it and/or a few bear call spreads around 30.
I am definitely looking to sell rallies - if the SPY can approach a 50 or 62 percent retracement, I am in. So obviously I am not counting out that the bulls have a little bit left in them, but I stress a little bit. There is also risk that we go to the downside without retracing much, but that could provide a buying opportunity if we get into the 1000 area.
The U of U class only has a few spots left, so be sure to sign up soon if you are interested in the 3 day class. I will be running a warm up for the Deer Valley employees on Feb 18th. Looking forward to returning a little of the love that the resort gives to all of its employees and guests. Inside out, Deer Valley is number 1.
By the way, there were HUGE wolf tracks under tower 13 of the Silver Strike Express yesterday morning. One ski instructor was lucky enough to see it from the lift with his class of mighty mites, ankle biters, helmet heads, future Olympians.
GO USA and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel
Another beautiful day in Park City. The snow is falling and as we have had a below average year,
every few inches helps. Sounds like a commercial for something else...
Let's get right to the charts as volatility returned and it was quite an active day. Many Double Fall Line Trades that were profitable. They didn't even take any heat so it goes to show that being patient and waiting for the markets to come to you has its rewards. This is on top of a very successful day yesterday with many Buffalo Bounces.
For our socially responsible stock of the day, let's take a look at WFMI as it is up almost 11% in the past week - way outperforming the overall markets and it has resistance dead ahead at 30. Could be time to sell some March covered calls if you own it and/or a few bear call spreads around 30.
I am definitely looking to sell rallies - if the SPY can approach a 50 or 62 percent retracement, I am in. So obviously I am not counting out that the bulls have a little bit left in them, but I stress a little bit. There is also risk that we go to the downside without retracing much, but that could provide a buying opportunity if we get into the 1000 area.
The U of U class only has a few spots left, so be sure to sign up soon if you are interested in the 3 day class. I will be running a warm up for the Deer Valley employees on Feb 18th. Looking forward to returning a little of the love that the resort gives to all of its employees and guests. Inside out, Deer Valley is number 1.
By the way, there were HUGE wolf tracks under tower 13 of the Silver Strike Express yesterday morning. One ski instructor was lucky enough to see it from the lift with his class of mighty mites, ankle biters, helmet heads, future Olympians.
GO USA and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
WOW! That was like the old days!! I am obviously late in writing this commentary, but better late than never. Just an aside, the weather in Park City (and Deer Valley) is uber-beautiful and I was able to spend the afternoon on a 24 foot ladder fixing my heat tape with my father-in-law stabilizing from below. Fun stuff! No falls this time, so ski season is still in tact. I am looking forward to some late night soccer practice at the rec center if enough people show up.
The markets were rocking today due to confirmation, rumor, etc... of the Greek debt bailout. The dollar got hammered, then strengthened, then found equilibrium. Up 9% in the account in a few seconds isn't bad, could have been. I could have been up 50% if I waited about.....5 seconds longer, but no complaints here.
Let's peak at a chart of the GBP/USD so you can see the swings as well as an intraday SPY chart:
It is very important to have a trading plan and trade with the correct portfolio sizing ratio but it really becomes important on days like today when the GBP/USD can move 200 pips in a matter of 45 minutes. With each pip worth $1, that makes for a nice day if you are on the right side of it and get filled higher than you thought. It can be a bad day if you are on the opposite end.
The point: stops aren't guaranteed so trade with money that you can lose - it should be an amount that doesn't cause you to bat an eyelash if it goes against you for a myriad of reasons.
If it is poor trading and location and timing, well that is another story.
I usually trade with .05 of my portfolio at risk on any one trade - conservative yes, but it is about hitting consistent singles, not swinging for the fences and having a strikeout ratio like Barry Bonds.
We can take away from the charts the relationship between equity movement and the risk trade - good things happen, the dollar is weak, but when risk enters the market, the dollar is the safe haven trade.
Sort of like a flight to quality. Speaking of quality, Locals Have More Fun offers the most high quality, comfy organic cotton on its website. Plus it is made sustainably so not only does it feel good, buy you will feel good purchasing and wearing it.
So why not take a look at a socially responsible stock - Wal Mart - they recycle and put in CFL lightbulbs so why not:
Another flight to quality - Deer Valley and Park City - ranked number 1 and 4 by readers of Ski Magazine respectively. That makes 3 years in a row at number one for DV. I would compare Snowmass and Beaver Creek as offering a similar "overall product". So come to Utah, ski withing 45 minutes of landing at the airport and never wait in a line!
One more fun stock - AXP - if we get another down move of about 7 percent or so, I am a player:
Off to the slopes the next 2 days but watch out for Bernanke, retail sales and unemployment claims.
Be Environmentally Cool,
Brian
WOW! That was like the old days!! I am obviously late in writing this commentary, but better late than never. Just an aside, the weather in Park City (and Deer Valley) is uber-beautiful and I was able to spend the afternoon on a 24 foot ladder fixing my heat tape with my father-in-law stabilizing from below. Fun stuff! No falls this time, so ski season is still in tact. I am looking forward to some late night soccer practice at the rec center if enough people show up.
The markets were rocking today due to confirmation, rumor, etc... of the Greek debt bailout. The dollar got hammered, then strengthened, then found equilibrium. Up 9% in the account in a few seconds isn't bad, could have been. I could have been up 50% if I waited about.....5 seconds longer, but no complaints here.
Let's peak at a chart of the GBP/USD so you can see the swings as well as an intraday SPY chart:
It is very important to have a trading plan and trade with the correct portfolio sizing ratio but it really becomes important on days like today when the GBP/USD can move 200 pips in a matter of 45 minutes. With each pip worth $1, that makes for a nice day if you are on the right side of it and get filled higher than you thought. It can be a bad day if you are on the opposite end.The point: stops aren't guaranteed so trade with money that you can lose - it should be an amount that doesn't cause you to bat an eyelash if it goes against you for a myriad of reasons.
If it is poor trading and location and timing, well that is another story.
I usually trade with .05 of my portfolio at risk on any one trade - conservative yes, but it is about hitting consistent singles, not swinging for the fences and having a strikeout ratio like Barry Bonds.
We can take away from the charts the relationship between equity movement and the risk trade - good things happen, the dollar is weak, but when risk enters the market, the dollar is the safe haven trade.
Sort of like a flight to quality. Speaking of quality, Locals Have More Fun offers the most high quality, comfy organic cotton on its website. Plus it is made sustainably so not only does it feel good, buy you will feel good purchasing and wearing it.
So why not take a look at a socially responsible stock - Wal Mart - they recycle and put in CFL lightbulbs so why not:
Another flight to quality - Deer Valley and Park City - ranked number 1 and 4 by readers of Ski Magazine respectively. That makes 3 years in a row at number one for DV. I would compare Snowmass and Beaver Creek as offering a similar "overall product". So come to Utah, ski withing 45 minutes of landing at the airport and never wait in a line!
One more fun stock - AXP - if we get another down move of about 7 percent or so, I am a player:
Off to the slopes the next 2 days but watch out for Bernanke, retail sales and unemployment claims.
Be Environmentally Cool,
Brian
Monday, February 8, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
First of all, congratulations to the Saints. I could care less who won as Peyton is a stud and you just got to be happy for New Orleans getting their first. Brees, Bush, Shockey - seem like worthy role models to me.
It was another beautiful weekend in Park City. The Olympic Athletes had a farewell sendoff at Utah Olympic Park, the St. Regis bar was packed, the snow is super soft and groomers are fast at Deer Valley, the Romp Stomp for breast cancer at Mountain Dell had a great turnout and I hear the fish are biting in the Provo.
The Local Lifestyle - got to love it.
Getting into the markets, it seems as if support is keeping the Dow close to 10,000 as the 9850 mark obviously proved to be oversold. Most stocks had a great rebound on Friday and are pretty much flat today.
We have a big week of data:
USO is at support in the mid 34.00 range for a low risk bullish to neutral trade.
I will update a few charts tonight and definitely tomorrow morning. But I will leave you with the socially responsible stock play of the day:
There is very strong support right around 100 on the 2 year chart. We are just about 10 percent above it. If the stock market holds and supply holds, then oil prices should hold which should keep FSLR above this support level.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel
First of all, congratulations to the Saints. I could care less who won as Peyton is a stud and you just got to be happy for New Orleans getting their first. Brees, Bush, Shockey - seem like worthy role models to me.
It was another beautiful weekend in Park City. The Olympic Athletes had a farewell sendoff at Utah Olympic Park, the St. Regis bar was packed, the snow is super soft and groomers are fast at Deer Valley, the Romp Stomp for breast cancer at Mountain Dell had a great turnout and I hear the fish are biting in the Provo.
The Local Lifestyle - got to love it.
Getting into the markets, it seems as if support is keeping the Dow close to 10,000 as the 9850 mark obviously proved to be oversold. Most stocks had a great rebound on Friday and are pretty much flat today.
We have a big week of data:
- Bernanke Testimony on Wednesday
- Retail Sales on Thursday
- Unemployment Claims on Thursday
- Earnings are winding down but still are in the mix
USO is at support in the mid 34.00 range for a low risk bullish to neutral trade.
I will update a few charts tonight and definitely tomorrow morning. But I will leave you with the socially responsible stock play of the day:
There is very strong support right around 100 on the 2 year chart. We are just about 10 percent above it. If the stock market holds and supply holds, then oil prices should hold which should keep FSLR above this support level.Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel
Friday, February 5, 2010
The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary
Good Morning Traders and Investors,
Snow is in the forecast. Sunday will be a great day to hit the Stein Eriksen buffet after a morning of powder skiing (fingers and toes crossed). A little pre-game with Bloody Mary's before kickoff. The over under is probably around 100 as Manning and Bree's duke it out.
If you are sticking to the groomers at Deer Valley, Lucky Star is my pick of the day. Consistency is the reason: pitch, width, a few rollers and grippy snow.
Let's take a peak at 2 charts. By the way, I just entered 2 Double Fall Line Trades - one winner, one loser - the winner was larger than the loser - thank you money management. I also entered 2 Buffalo Bounces - both winners - although premature in taking gains in both, but it is late on a Friday and the mountain awaits!!
SPY - it is all about SEQUENCE. We are making lower lows and lower highs on a short term chart. We haven't violated the uptrend on the longer term charts so I am taking this opportunity to sell puts on commodities - see PHO below. Some commodity stocks are off as much as 25 percent and I love buying dips in strong sectors for my investment portfolio.
PHO - selling naked puts gives you a credit so if you take ownership of the stock, you get paid to buy it!
On the forex side, the EUR/USD was hammered, but as I mentioned, I nice oversold area occured with the Buffalo Bounce trade. Overall the dollar strengthened with the equity selloff. I expect Monday to be a little lackadaisical with a bias to neutral to bearish for equities so I don't expect any change in the strong dollar.
That's the quick take for the day. Get out and do something fun and remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.
Snow is in the forecast. Sunday will be a great day to hit the Stein Eriksen buffet after a morning of powder skiing (fingers and toes crossed). A little pre-game with Bloody Mary's before kickoff. The over under is probably around 100 as Manning and Bree's duke it out.
If you are sticking to the groomers at Deer Valley, Lucky Star is my pick of the day. Consistency is the reason: pitch, width, a few rollers and grippy snow.
Let's take a peak at 2 charts. By the way, I just entered 2 Double Fall Line Trades - one winner, one loser - the winner was larger than the loser - thank you money management. I also entered 2 Buffalo Bounces - both winners - although premature in taking gains in both, but it is late on a Friday and the mountain awaits!!
SPY - it is all about SEQUENCE. We are making lower lows and lower highs on a short term chart. We haven't violated the uptrend on the longer term charts so I am taking this opportunity to sell puts on commodities - see PHO below. Some commodity stocks are off as much as 25 percent and I love buying dips in strong sectors for my investment portfolio.
PHO - selling naked puts gives you a credit so if you take ownership of the stock, you get paid to buy it!
On the forex side, the EUR/USD was hammered, but as I mentioned, I nice oversold area occured with the Buffalo Bounce trade. Overall the dollar strengthened with the equity selloff. I expect Monday to be a little lackadaisical with a bias to neutral to bearish for equities so I don't expect any change in the strong dollar.That's the quick take for the day. Get out and do something fun and remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.
Monday, February 1, 2010
The Local's Take: Monday Wrapup
Good Afternoon Traders and Investors,
Sundance TwentyTen has left Park City. My suggestions for films to see:
**Dock Ellis and the LSD No No - You Tube it and laugh your butt off!
**Luck - Documentary on the lottery
**Winning Time: Reggie Miller v The Knicks - (unless you are from NY). I think ESPN picked it up for the 30/30 series
**The Company Men - very relevant!
Thank you to all Sundance organizers, film makers and attendees as Park City needs, wants and respects you!!
I am also attaching a few pictures of weather during Sundance at Deer Valley Resort:
On to the markets:
Don't get too excited after the first day of February closes out and we are up over 1% on the day. We have a lot of work to do and a lot of event risk this week. Earnings are still around and unemployment (unenjoyment) Friday looms. Peak at the ISM manufacturing and ISM n0n-manufacturing as well as unemployment claims on Thursday to see what the employment picture looks like heading into the government release on Friday at 8:30am Eastern.
The SPY has moved off its highs of 1150 to lows around 1075. That is 75 points it needs to make up without in order to make a higher high and continue the trend up. We can go lower without violating the uptrend, but the lower we go, the harder it will be to make a new high. The 7% drop we had is close to the magic 10% correction that may signal an end to the uptrend.
I don't know where we are headed, some people say 1000 in the Dow, others say 14000. Both seem ridiculous. But I am confident we will be choppy and sloppy, not just in the short term, but the long term as well (meaning 3-5 years).
Could be a traders paradise!!! and definitely a portfolio protection paradise.
PCTIC meets on 02/15 and my U of U Personal Trading/Investing Class starts in late February.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel.
Sundance TwentyTen has left Park City. My suggestions for films to see:
**Dock Ellis and the LSD No No - You Tube it and laugh your butt off!
**Luck - Documentary on the lottery
**Winning Time: Reggie Miller v The Knicks - (unless you are from NY). I think ESPN picked it up for the 30/30 series
**The Company Men - very relevant!
Thank you to all Sundance organizers, film makers and attendees as Park City needs, wants and respects you!!
I am also attaching a few pictures of weather during Sundance at Deer Valley Resort:
On to the markets:Don't get too excited after the first day of February closes out and we are up over 1% on the day. We have a lot of work to do and a lot of event risk this week. Earnings are still around and unemployment (unenjoyment) Friday looms. Peak at the ISM manufacturing and ISM n0n-manufacturing as well as unemployment claims on Thursday to see what the employment picture looks like heading into the government release on Friday at 8:30am Eastern.
The SPY has moved off its highs of 1150 to lows around 1075. That is 75 points it needs to make up without in order to make a higher high and continue the trend up. We can go lower without violating the uptrend, but the lower we go, the harder it will be to make a new high. The 7% drop we had is close to the magic 10% correction that may signal an end to the uptrend.
I don't know where we are headed, some people say 1000 in the Dow, others say 14000. Both seem ridiculous. But I am confident we will be choppy and sloppy, not just in the short term, but the long term as well (meaning 3-5 years).
Could be a traders paradise!!! and definitely a portfolio protection paradise.
PCTIC meets on 02/15 and my U of U Personal Trading/Investing Class starts in late February.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel.
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