SPX and the 1250 Level

Good Morning,
I want to make sure that my readers know that I do post a little less frequently during the ski season. Deer Valley opened up with 17 runs on Saturday and the man made snow is cold, fast and holding an edge very well. Looks like cold temps are in the forecast for the next 5-10 days so snowmaking conditions will be perfect. If any of you are heading out here for the holidays, give me a heads up.
It has been about a week since I posted and obviously we know that equities are in the midst of another Central Bank driven rally. When will it stop? We won't know for at least another 5 trading days as Europe is set to meet again on Friday.
We know the US is growing (slowly) but growing and until that stops, I think that adds fuel to the fire. Technically, until we close above 1250 that is "resistance" and then after that it is the 1270 area, then 1300 and finally 1350. I still believe that 1350 is a multi-year high, but I could change my mind quickly if governments keep supporting the markets and economic data continues to improve. Overall, I am bullish around the pre-Thanksgiving 1150 level and bearish up here until we close higher (could be today).
USO has been a fun ETF to play defense with. It is heading back up to its resistance level of 40.00.
In the forex markets, all of the news has happened overnight during the European session and then basically flatlined during the USD session. The only day we had a major trend and then retracement was on Monda when equities gave back some of their gains. This week, I am looking for some more intraday excitement, but I am not holding my breath.
Wrapping up with trading psycyhology, the VIX isn't "really" in the 20's. It feels like it is in the 70's. How many times do you remember weekly moves of 5 to 10% in equity markets on a weekly basis. The only reason the ViX isn't truly showing the volatility out there is the markets are going up. This is very, very important as quantity is NOT as important as quality. Keep your trading size small because with this volatility you have the chance to have HUGE percentage winners and losers at a moments notice. We aren't trying to hit home runs, but they can happen and on the flipside, a counter-move to our thesis can happen at a moments notice as well.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.