First of all, I would like to thank the Park City Trading/Investing Club attendees for being so prepared and providing great content to discuss. As you know I always lead in with fundamentals, so here we go.
Consumer confidence - a total bummer and also a toally lagging indicator. It follows the stock market - so the stock market was down and everyone said "woe is me!". If the stock market is higher when we have our next survey period, it will be higher. So the number caused the stock market to break, but technically, we have a much different picture now as we are making new highs as we speak. We also have soooo much data to look at over the next few days that worrying about consumer confidence a month from now isn't high on the list.
Technically, let's look at the SPY, first on a 1 minute and then on a longer term chart. A severe rally on the intraday chart and new highs on the longer term chart. We are busting above the neckline of the double bottom. Are there shorts out there that are about to get stuck in a short rally and puke and cause us to head towards 125-130?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into everyone's favorite commodiay, GLD has some resistance as well. As we talked about last night in the club, is this a place that is calling out: I am up here so you can play defense!!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into forex, I had a nice position on last evening into this morning as I really was intrigued by yesterday's dollar strength. Let's think about this, dollar strength and the marke rallies 200+ points - that is very RARE!. Who is wrong? The dollar or equities. Well, it was equities (albeit briefly) and we saw the dollar strengthen. You know I love those Fibs so here is that all to famous DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Final thought: will the equity rally hold if CHIPM and ISM fall below 50, signaling contraction?
Final Thought 2: U of U Classes start in 4 weeks - here is the link to sign up
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool (link to Park City's Low Carbon Diet program)
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
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