The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary and Week in Review

Good Afternoon,
That was a wild week! So much data and so many speakers and so many issues and we are, as they say in A Clockwork Orange: clear as an umuddied lake! Or are we? That is the question!
After it is all said and done, here are the last 5 trading days in the SPY:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Big, volatile bars, yet wer are almost in the exact same place that we started - just a fraction lower.
Moving further into the "clearing it up" section, here is the conundrum for the weekend - you ponder it and get back to me. Oil prices were at 115, then slammed down to 89.00 and moved back up quickly (too quickly) to 98.00. So I look at 98.00 and 115.00 - we are about 6% off our highs. Here is the chart of USO which tracked these movements:


Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now, here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD. USD is WEAK!

Past performance is not indicative of future results
We aren't on our highs in oil, yet basically on our lows in the USD/CAD.

To wrap things up, there are more buyer then sellers and there is absolutely no uncertaintly out there as every Friday, traders like to go home long equities, meaning they are saying there is no chance for risk over the next 48 hours, so I will hold and even buy more equities.  We are well within striking distance of new highs in equities and until the buying abates, it seems likely we will get there.

Just as a reminder we are over halfway through 2011 and we are up 4% for the year in the SPY. Not too bad on top of the gains of the past 2 years. Maybe this trading range we have been in for the past 6 months is getting ready to end and as we come back from summer break (sorry to say that we are 6 weeks from school starting), the bulls take over again.


Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, a light week on the docket next week. We do have earnings, an appearance by Bernanke and of course our ever higher weekly jobless claims.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.