Good Afternoon,
Just a quick wrap up of todays action. We still have the dance going on in our nation's capital. We have a lot of "edgy" and "nervous" players that aren't committing to any significant holdings. That means three things could happen:
1. We can rally hard
2. We can go down further
3. It is a dud and we are fairly priced
This is like a giant FOMC statement where it may take a few days to shake out a nice trade even after the announcement is made. Bottom line is the trading should and I stress should be good in the aftermath of this as we are in a new month next week with lots of economic data including jobs.
The reality of it all? Use your technicals to make a sound trade and use money management because announcements can come at any time next week, so fast markets could pop out of no where.
That is my trading psychology bit for all of you short term traders.
For the investor, if you aren't protected yet, what were you waiting for? Unemployment has been worsening for at least 2 months and how much more upside is there in these markets? I don't know the answer, but at an 80% retracement of the 2007-2009 bear market, I am creating income and protecting the downside.
Have a great weekend and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
The Local's Take: Morning Commentary
Good Morning,
Lost in the shuffle of the battle in DC were some economic numbers. Yesterday, durable goods fueled the downside and today, a better than expected claims number (below 400k) is fueling:
1. the "technically oversold rally"
2. a "dead cat" bounce
So muich more is to be digested with the debt ceiling. We are getting past earnings and it seems "QE3" has unofficially begun with the European bailout. That is a lot for a trader to deal with so until things are more clear, sound technical trading with proper trading size is key.
Yesterday volatility increased and we had the EUR/USD trade above the average daily range:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Today, we are back to smaller ranges as equities move the upside and the dollar trades sideways. Making the segway from forex into equiti8es/options, let's look at the Dollar Index (DXY):
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Sticking with the D theme, let's look at DIS and a nice shot at a trendline bounce:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, no one knows what the deliberations/outcome will mean for the markest. I have stressed over and over that you have to go "back to basics" and know your trading market very, very well and trade it for its own separate entity. There is no way that ANYONE has been through a QE1, QE2, QE3, etc... before. No one has been through a debt crisis and the possibility of downgrading American credit. I sure will not tell you where we are heading, but I do know that whether you are a trade or investor, if you use sound technical analysis and you use solid trading plans with money management AND you DO NOT focus on the money, you will be successful (if that is, there actually is volatility).
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Lost in the shuffle of the battle in DC were some economic numbers. Yesterday, durable goods fueled the downside and today, a better than expected claims number (below 400k) is fueling:
1. the "technically oversold rally"
2. a "dead cat" bounce
So muich more is to be digested with the debt ceiling. We are getting past earnings and it seems "QE3" has unofficially begun with the European bailout. That is a lot for a trader to deal with so until things are more clear, sound technical trading with proper trading size is key.
Yesterday volatility increased and we had the EUR/USD trade above the average daily range:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Today, we are back to smaller ranges as equities move the upside and the dollar trades sideways. Making the segway from forex into equiti8es/options, let's look at the Dollar Index (DXY):
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Sticking with the D theme, let's look at DIS and a nice shot at a trendline bounce:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, no one knows what the deliberations/outcome will mean for the markest. I have stressed over and over that you have to go "back to basics" and know your trading market very, very well and trade it for its own separate entity. There is no way that ANYONE has been through a QE1, QE2, QE3, etc... before. No one has been through a debt crisis and the possibility of downgrading American credit. I sure will not tell you where we are heading, but I do know that whether you are a trade or investor, if you use sound technical analysis and you use solid trading plans with money management AND you DO NOT focus on the money, you will be successful (if that is, there actually is volatility).
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Hello,
Debt celing, debt celing, debt ceiling. Doesn't mean anything for a pickup in volatility (yet). Two quiet days for the most part with pockets of excitment.
To define "quiet", I mean, the market gaps up or down (down in this weeks case) and then trades primarily counter-open and sideways.
There was a tight squeeze for a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE in the GBP/USD today:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into equties, we still have "resistance" in play in SPY:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
If you are defensive, did you have the chance to collar/buy protection for yourself before MMM had earnings? You know how much the markets love the 61.8 area!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
More importantly, check out the long term chart on MMM (4 years):
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, NFLX. Is it attractive in the low to mid 200's? You can get 2.55 (about 1%) for the August 230's.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
I wonder what is more environmentally friendly, NFLX or driving to Blockbuster. Well, I guess the latter isn't a choice anyway.
Look for an increase (hopefully) in trading ranges with the onset of durable goods, claims, GDP and CHPM (check the employment component of CHPM for an inkling of the jobs report, but seasonalities exist with auto workers).
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Debt celing, debt celing, debt ceiling. Doesn't mean anything for a pickup in volatility (yet). Two quiet days for the most part with pockets of excitment.
To define "quiet", I mean, the market gaps up or down (down in this weeks case) and then trades primarily counter-open and sideways.
There was a tight squeeze for a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE in the GBP/USD today:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into equties, we still have "resistance" in play in SPY:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
If you are defensive, did you have the chance to collar/buy protection for yourself before MMM had earnings? You know how much the markets love the 61.8 area!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
More importantly, check out the long term chart on MMM (4 years):
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, NFLX. Is it attractive in the low to mid 200's? You can get 2.55 (about 1%) for the August 230's.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
I wonder what is more environmentally friendly, NFLX or driving to Blockbuster. Well, I guess the latter isn't a choice anyway.
Look for an increase (hopefully) in trading ranges with the onset of durable goods, claims, GDP and CHPM (check the employment component of CHPM for an inkling of the jobs report, but seasonalities exist with auto workers).
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Good Afternoon,
Let's start with jobs. We had a higher number of people looking for weekly unemployment benefits. BUT, the bigger story is flight to quality. Where are you going to get returns? From bonds, cash or stocks. Let's face it, companies are making money and the best place to invest is in the equity markets. I am not saying that I don't believe in defense and I am not saying that I agree with making new highs, but technically, the path of least resistance seems to be to the upside. If you can't go down (and can't go down on bad news), then the only way you can go is up.
I believe corporate earnigns should be good for the next earnings peiod, but depending on how high unemployment climbs, let's see what Q1 and Q2 look like in 2012.
As I mentioned a few months ago, if we get into summer markets near the highs, we should leak slowly higher. We have seen this during other slow periods such as last summer and the past 2 December Holiday seasons as well.
With equities up huge, the USD got crushed - got to love those inter-market relationships. You can count 4 BUFFALO BOUNCES today:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
To the equity markets. Everyone is talking about Gold. Unfortunately, when it broke out above resistance, it didn't come back and give us a second chance. This was more of a fundamental move than a chance at a low risk technical trade:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Looking at the overall markets, again, new highs seem likely. Here is the SPY. Is there any reason to play defense at these "elevated" levels?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Let's start with jobs. We had a higher number of people looking for weekly unemployment benefits. BUT, the bigger story is flight to quality. Where are you going to get returns? From bonds, cash or stocks. Let's face it, companies are making money and the best place to invest is in the equity markets. I am not saying that I don't believe in defense and I am not saying that I agree with making new highs, but technically, the path of least resistance seems to be to the upside. If you can't go down (and can't go down on bad news), then the only way you can go is up.
I believe corporate earnigns should be good for the next earnings peiod, but depending on how high unemployment climbs, let's see what Q1 and Q2 look like in 2012.
As I mentioned a few months ago, if we get into summer markets near the highs, we should leak slowly higher. We have seen this during other slow periods such as last summer and the past 2 December Holiday seasons as well.
With equities up huge, the USD got crushed - got to love those inter-market relationships. You can count 4 BUFFALO BOUNCES today:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
To the equity markets. Everyone is talking about Gold. Unfortunately, when it broke out above resistance, it didn't come back and give us a second chance. This was more of a fundamental move than a chance at a low risk technical trade:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Looking at the overall markets, again, new highs seem likely. Here is the SPY. Is there any reason to play defense at these "elevated" levels?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
The Local's Take: Morning Commentary
Good Morning,
Double tops are where it's at for the EUR/USD. Check out this one that occurred shortly after the go time:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
In equities, we are seeing similar action to last week. Triple digit moves on the open and then some sideways/retracing action.
After two days of trading, 100 points down and 100 points up. The markets are digesting lots of news and data from earnings. The economic calendar picks up on Thursday as well with Bernanke.
One last thought, the New Zealand economy must be doing very well!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Double tops are where it's at for the EUR/USD. Check out this one that occurred shortly after the go time:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
In equities, we are seeing similar action to last week. Triple digit moves on the open and then some sideways/retracing action.
After two days of trading, 100 points down and 100 points up. The markets are digesting lots of news and data from earnings. The economic calendar picks up on Thursday as well with Bernanke.
One last thought, the New Zealand economy must be doing very well!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Monday, July 18, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Good Morning,
I will address these relationships tonight in the forex market class at the U of U.
It took a while, but once the downside momentum petered out, we saw the equities retrace and take the very, very strong EUR/USD through the DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE area and even towards its highs of the from the Asian session.
Here is the chart as it went for its highs and eventually through them. Remember, no other pair rallied more than about 50%, so you can see how there was great strength in the EUR/USD during the American equity session.
In equities, we held the 130 level in SPY, and if we are going to head higher, we better find some support as we are sitting on the critical 61.8 retracement. Below this is the famed 126 support level:
Fundamentally, we have so much data coming out every single day. From earnings to Europe, to US debt ceiling to the economic calendar. Make sure if you are swing and intermediate trading in the equity/options markets you are getting "a really good deal"!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Friday, July 15, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary and Week in Review
Good Afternoon,
That was a wild week! So much data and so many speakers and so many issues and we are, as they say in A Clockwork Orange: clear as an umuddied lake! Or are we? That is the question!
After it is all said and done, here are the last 5 trading days in the SPY:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Big, volatile bars, yet wer are almost in the exact same place that we started - just a fraction lower.
Moving further into the "clearing it up" section, here is the conundrum for the weekend - you ponder it and get back to me. Oil prices were at 115, then slammed down to 89.00 and moved back up quickly (too quickly) to 98.00. So I look at 98.00 and 115.00 - we are about 6% off our highs. Here is the chart of USO which tracked these movements:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now, here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD. USD is WEAK!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
We aren't on our highs in oil, yet basically on our lows in the USD/CAD.
To wrap things up, there are more buyer then sellers and there is absolutely no uncertaintly out there as every Friday, traders like to go home long equities, meaning they are saying there is no chance for risk over the next 48 hours, so I will hold and even buy more equities. We are well within striking distance of new highs in equities and until the buying abates, it seems likely we will get there.
Just as a reminder we are over halfway through 2011 and we are up 4% for the year in the SPY. Not too bad on top of the gains of the past 2 years. Maybe this trading range we have been in for the past 6 months is getting ready to end and as we come back from summer break (sorry to say that we are 6 weeks from school starting), the bulls take over again.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, a light week on the docket next week. We do have earnings, an appearance by Bernanke and of course our ever higher weekly jobless claims.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
That was a wild week! So much data and so many speakers and so many issues and we are, as they say in A Clockwork Orange: clear as an umuddied lake! Or are we? That is the question!
After it is all said and done, here are the last 5 trading days in the SPY:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Big, volatile bars, yet wer are almost in the exact same place that we started - just a fraction lower.
Moving further into the "clearing it up" section, here is the conundrum for the weekend - you ponder it and get back to me. Oil prices were at 115, then slammed down to 89.00 and moved back up quickly (too quickly) to 98.00. So I look at 98.00 and 115.00 - we are about 6% off our highs. Here is the chart of USO which tracked these movements:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now, here is a daily chart of the USD/CAD. USD is WEAK!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
We aren't on our highs in oil, yet basically on our lows in the USD/CAD.
To wrap things up, there are more buyer then sellers and there is absolutely no uncertaintly out there as every Friday, traders like to go home long equities, meaning they are saying there is no chance for risk over the next 48 hours, so I will hold and even buy more equities. We are well within striking distance of new highs in equities and until the buying abates, it seems likely we will get there.
Just as a reminder we are over halfway through 2011 and we are up 4% for the year in the SPY. Not too bad on top of the gains of the past 2 years. Maybe this trading range we have been in for the past 6 months is getting ready to end and as we come back from summer break (sorry to say that we are 6 weeks from school starting), the bulls take over again.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, a light week on the docket next week. We do have earnings, an appearance by Bernanke and of course our ever higher weekly jobless claims.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentar
Good Afternoon,
Another fun day and I have to admit it, I called it! I was speaking to my University of Utah Forex Class and I said, the Fed can turn on the faucet at any time. Meaning good news is good for the equity markets and bad news is good for the economic markets.
You want examples? The equity markets scream to the upside as unemployment claims rise and the equity markets can't go down when we print a well below expectations headline unemployment number.
So as a result of the recent Fed meeting, we have them pondering QE3. No crap! If there aren't any jobs being created and they backed themselves into a corner by saying we will support the stock market, the only way to do that is with easing. I am not worried about QE3, but what worries me is QE4, QE5, etc.. Just the fact that QE3 is mentioned should tank the equity markets, because things are so bad on the unemployment side that they have no choice but to intervene.
I say go ahead and let them do it because eventually, the markets will be so over-inflated that we won't crash, we will just go sideways for about 10 years and that will be worse than crashing and rebounding, crashing and rebounding. That will be stagnation or worse yet, stagflation. I can't wait for those markets!
To today's markets and due to the late day equity rebound and then subsequent fall off, we had a BUFFALO BOUNCE in the EUR/USD:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
I teach on the principle that the markets will give you a second chance. Well, the GBP/USD gave us a second chance. Check out the double top on the next chart and notice the horizontal red trendline. See in the second chart how after breaking through support and closing below it yesterday, we go lower today, only to rally and retest it and bounce off of it. Old support gives us new resistance:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Not much to report in the equity markets as we are relatively sideways since yesterday's close. I admit it, I am not sure if I am bullish or bearish. Are we only retracing down a little bit and ready for a rally? Or, are we not taking back much of yesterday's losses and getting ready to go lower? Why am I not confident in calling the direction? Here is why:
**two days of inflation data (not sure if it matters)
**two days of Bernanke
**retail sales
**unemployment claims
**some earnings data
That is a lot of data and to call the affect of it now is absolutely absurd. I am hedged (as always) and fundamentally I am bearish, but "gasp" technically I am bullish. Should be a fun three days!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Another fun day and I have to admit it, I called it! I was speaking to my University of Utah Forex Class and I said, the Fed can turn on the faucet at any time. Meaning good news is good for the equity markets and bad news is good for the economic markets.
You want examples? The equity markets scream to the upside as unemployment claims rise and the equity markets can't go down when we print a well below expectations headline unemployment number.
So as a result of the recent Fed meeting, we have them pondering QE3. No crap! If there aren't any jobs being created and they backed themselves into a corner by saying we will support the stock market, the only way to do that is with easing. I am not worried about QE3, but what worries me is QE4, QE5, etc.. Just the fact that QE3 is mentioned should tank the equity markets, because things are so bad on the unemployment side that they have no choice but to intervene.
I say go ahead and let them do it because eventually, the markets will be so over-inflated that we won't crash, we will just go sideways for about 10 years and that will be worse than crashing and rebounding, crashing and rebounding. That will be stagnation or worse yet, stagflation. I can't wait for those markets!
To today's markets and due to the late day equity rebound and then subsequent fall off, we had a BUFFALO BOUNCE in the EUR/USD:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
I teach on the principle that the markets will give you a second chance. Well, the GBP/USD gave us a second chance. Check out the double top on the next chart and notice the horizontal red trendline. See in the second chart how after breaking through support and closing below it yesterday, we go lower today, only to rally and retest it and bounce off of it. Old support gives us new resistance:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Not much to report in the equity markets as we are relatively sideways since yesterday's close. I admit it, I am not sure if I am bullish or bearish. Are we only retracing down a little bit and ready for a rally? Or, are we not taking back much of yesterday's losses and getting ready to go lower? Why am I not confident in calling the direction? Here is why:
**two days of inflation data (not sure if it matters)
**two days of Bernanke
**retail sales
**unemployment claims
**some earnings data
That is a lot of data and to call the affect of it now is absolutely absurd. I am hedged (as always) and fundamentally I am bearish, but "gasp" technically I am bullish. Should be a fun three days!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Monday, July 11, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Good Afternoon,
That was a fun day!
Volatility crept back in as we saw equities tank. I think this is a "makeup". I am still sticking with unemployment data and the fact that is was HORRIFIC should, in reality, make us go down. It should make us go down a lot more than the 69 points from Friday and the 150 from today.
It's as simple as that. Forget Europe, our debt ceiling, etc..., it is all about jobs. I understand that you can't make money from bonds. I understand corporate profits are good and will continue to be good (not forever, but for the next quarter or two) and I understand that equities are the place to be. BUT, how long can corporate profits stay "insane" if unemployment goes up. Corporations know they can get more for less out of their workers (i.e, productivity). So unemployment climbs and corportate profits climb and equity prices climb. Climb a wall or worry and long-term unhealthy issues. That is why I will always play defense on my portfolio, but absolutely, location, location, location.
To the forex charts. The day started with a BUFFALO BOUNCE in the EUR/USD as it got walloped:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Even though there wasn't a trade, the GBP/USD broke through support - will old support become new resistance? Maybe a multi-day swing trade is setting up:
And finally, the AUD/USD - DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES both ways - as equities rallied and fell off and then towards the end of the day when equities hung in there:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to equities, I could use a little more of a selloff in the Nasdaq as the weak dog turned out to be the strongest during the recent rally up. If it could retrace to the 38.2 percentage area I would be quite happy!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Looks like both of the USO trades will finish out productively as the 35 cash secured put and the 40/41 bear calls look safe. It's all about the rubber band stretching too far (and too fast).
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
That was a fun day!
Volatility crept back in as we saw equities tank. I think this is a "makeup". I am still sticking with unemployment data and the fact that is was HORRIFIC should, in reality, make us go down. It should make us go down a lot more than the 69 points from Friday and the 150 from today.
It's as simple as that. Forget Europe, our debt ceiling, etc..., it is all about jobs. I understand that you can't make money from bonds. I understand corporate profits are good and will continue to be good (not forever, but for the next quarter or two) and I understand that equities are the place to be. BUT, how long can corporate profits stay "insane" if unemployment goes up. Corporations know they can get more for less out of their workers (i.e, productivity). So unemployment climbs and corportate profits climb and equity prices climb. Climb a wall or worry and long-term unhealthy issues. That is why I will always play defense on my portfolio, but absolutely, location, location, location.
To the forex charts. The day started with a BUFFALO BOUNCE in the EUR/USD as it got walloped:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Even though there wasn't a trade, the GBP/USD broke through support - will old support become new resistance? Maybe a multi-day swing trade is setting up:
And finally, the AUD/USD - DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES both ways - as equities rallied and fell off and then towards the end of the day when equities hung in there:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to equities, I could use a little more of a selloff in the Nasdaq as the weak dog turned out to be the strongest during the recent rally up. If it could retrace to the 38.2 percentage area I would be quite happy!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Looks like both of the USO trades will finish out productively as the 35 cash secured put and the 40/41 bear calls look safe. It's all about the rubber band stretching too far (and too fast).
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Friday, July 8, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Good Afternoon,
Higher unemployment is positive for stock prices - nothing else to say about it than that!
Here is the SPY chart for today from start to finish, we rally!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
We have a slew of data next week with Bernanke speaking, retail sales and of course, the above 400k print of unemployment claims. Technically though, the point of least resistance is to the upside and I don't see 1370 in the SPX being hard to take out.
As far as our inter-market relationships go, USO and the commodity sector has been a blast. Long at 35 and now short as oil halts at 98ish. The trade was to get in yesterday in anticipation of the 89-98 move being too big.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
To inter-market correlate, we have the USD/CAD and the strong move off the jobs report - buy the dollar against the Canadian as it explodes to the upside.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, we had a nice retracement in the EUR/USD as equities found their footing (did they ever) and as a result, a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
At least if you are out of a job your investments are going up!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Higher unemployment is positive for stock prices - nothing else to say about it than that!
Here is the SPY chart for today from start to finish, we rally!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
We have a slew of data next week with Bernanke speaking, retail sales and of course, the above 400k print of unemployment claims. Technically though, the point of least resistance is to the upside and I don't see 1370 in the SPX being hard to take out.
As far as our inter-market relationships go, USO and the commodity sector has been a blast. Long at 35 and now short as oil halts at 98ish. The trade was to get in yesterday in anticipation of the 89-98 move being too big.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
To inter-market correlate, we have the USD/CAD and the strong move off the jobs report - buy the dollar against the Canadian as it explodes to the upside.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, we had a nice retracement in the EUR/USD as equities found their footing (did they ever) and as a result, a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
At least if you are out of a job your investments are going up!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
The Local's Take: Afternoon Commentary
Good Afternoon,
If you can't go down, you must go up! (See yesterday's post on 500 points up and 5 points down means, we are going higher!)
With claims tomorrow and unemployment on Friday, it should be a lot of fun!
Speaking of fun, the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD provided BUFFALO BOUNCES early in the morning - the EUR/USD was tough as it hit the key area just before the "trading go time".
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Again, I will stress that I am not in agreeance with the size of this upmove, but the technicals are claearly stating who is in charge. Will the upcoming economic data matter? Will it matter more depending on if it comes out very bullish or bearish? Maybe that is the better question. It almost is as if: bearish data is neutral and bullish data is bullish. We have seen this over the past few years. It would be nice to have a down day or two to take off this overbought condition, but these are the markets where you buy high and sell higher! You just have to make sure you have your risk to reward in place as things can turn around in a hurry, skewing the trade.
Local Tip: Interbank FX Webinar This Evening
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
If you can't go down, you must go up! (See yesterday's post on 500 points up and 5 points down means, we are going higher!)
With claims tomorrow and unemployment on Friday, it should be a lot of fun!
Speaking of fun, the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD provided BUFFALO BOUNCES early in the morning - the EUR/USD was tough as it hit the key area just before the "trading go time".
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into equities, we are heading for old "bull run" resistance in all of the major indexes which is pushing many stocks to new highs. First the SPY:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And now for one of those stocks at new highs, AXP:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Again, I will stress that I am not in agreeance with the size of this upmove, but the technicals are claearly stating who is in charge. Will the upcoming economic data matter? Will it matter more depending on if it comes out very bullish or bearish? Maybe that is the better question. It almost is as if: bearish data is neutral and bullish data is bullish. We have seen this over the past few years. It would be nice to have a down day or two to take off this overbought condition, but these are the markets where you buy high and sell higher! You just have to make sure you have your risk to reward in place as things can turn around in a hurry, skewing the trade.
Local Tip: Interbank FX Webinar This Evening
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
The Local's Take: Morning Commentary
Good Morning,
This is your typical bull market summer day. Volatility is in the mid teen's, no economic data and the bulls are still clearly in charge. It defenitely isn't a good sign for the bears if our down day after 500 points of going up is around 10 pionts.
I could definitely use some soft economic data and a few down days, but not srue there is a reltionship between poor economic data and down days.
We have weekly claims staying well above the 400k mark, meaning little to no job growth (again), but this time, the forecast of 85k jobs scares me. Why? Because we could see a 100-150 print which will look GREAT! compared to the estimates, but overall, very, very paltry and unmeaningful in the long run.
So with the massive run up in equities last week, are we seeing some sectors get top heavy?
I am focusing on percentages gained and USO may be ripe for a bear call after we caught in on the long side by selling puts and now I want to see if the rubber band has stretched too far to the upside. Look at this 10% move:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
In the forex markets, the dollar is a bit stronger against most currencies, but overall, it is an "inside day" with very quiet ranges during the American session. Again, the first paragraph mentioned quiet markets, so trader discipline is key. Are you going to bang away today or in a few days when we have unemployment data and the opportunity (no guarantees) for larger trading ranges.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool!
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
This is your typical bull market summer day. Volatility is in the mid teen's, no economic data and the bulls are still clearly in charge. It defenitely isn't a good sign for the bears if our down day after 500 points of going up is around 10 pionts.
I could definitely use some soft economic data and a few down days, but not srue there is a reltionship between poor economic data and down days.
We have weekly claims staying well above the 400k mark, meaning little to no job growth (again), but this time, the forecast of 85k jobs scares me. Why? Because we could see a 100-150 print which will look GREAT! compared to the estimates, but overall, very, very paltry and unmeaningful in the long run.
So with the massive run up in equities last week, are we seeing some sectors get top heavy?
I am focusing on percentages gained and USO may be ripe for a bear call after we caught in on the long side by selling puts and now I want to see if the rubber band has stretched too far to the upside. Look at this 10% move:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
In the forex markets, the dollar is a bit stronger against most currencies, but overall, it is an "inside day" with very quiet ranges during the American session. Again, the first paragraph mentioned quiet markets, so trader discipline is key. Are you going to bang away today or in a few days when we have unemployment data and the opportunity (no guarantees) for larger trading ranges.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool!
Online currency trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)