I think that counts as a down day that close on its low. Let's start with the fundmanentals and then move into the technicals:
**initial claims - a shocking 474 print - which has to have some seasonality to it, but nonetheless, the 4 week moving average is well above 400k which more importantly is consistent with zero to very little job growth. By the way, if you haven't heard, we are about 14 hours away from the big one: the monthly jobs report number with a consensus of 185k (I am expecting it to be under that number).
**ECB: Trichet says that the European Central Bank is now acting like the FOMC - no inflation and not raising interest rates - a very doveish move and not good for the EUR.
Other than that, just a few trading days that are acting totally "old normal", listening to the economic calendar and behaving like the "old regular".
That reminds me, an un-named source at the Park City Trading and Inveting Club post meeting dinner mentioned that our weather is back to its "old normal". So droughts, floods and fires are here to stay, which is great news for commodity traders and for those Weather Channel junkies. Hopefully it means more snow, but regardless, tie that in with a weak dollar and you have instant inflation. Oh, sorry, I mean "no inflation" according to the FOMC and as of today, the ECB.
Alright, to the charts. Let's start with forex as their were BUFFALO BOUNCES all over the place:
Moving into the equity side, let's look at the SPY and see if we can find any support levels (I am sure all of you buyers of commodities over the past few days are asking the same thing). I think 1310 to 1300 gets attractive, but as I tell my students, what got us to that level may make me change my mind. I like it now, but if we get a disastrous unemployment report, I might change my mind - ahh the dilemma's and choices of a trader!
The sun is shining and it is time to motivate for a run, so I am cutting this one short as we have so much to look forward to tomorrow that I think it would be pointless to post any other charts as we have a "huge earnings event" and you know me, I am not trying to guess which way it is going to go.
I will have a weekly wrap up with additional equity charts tomorrow and provide a look ahead.
Hopefully you have your Derby pick and see you at the High West on Saturday for the annual Derby party.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
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