Wednesday, April 13, 2011

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,
It has been a few days since I wrote an article - busy catching up from the Denver Expo/Conference where I spoke to business owners and individuals about "sleeping better at night" through hedging using technical and fundamental analysis.
I also discussed growth, through the options and forex markets. Finally,
I talked about income generation for people with stock ownership.
All of this was based on YOU as the "system". Understanding who you are and what you can achieve given your account size, time available to focus on the markets and risk tolerance.
While on the "you are the system" topic, here is the link for tonight's free webinar, starting time is 9pm Eastern.
Let's get to the markets. We had our first significant down day since March 16th. Again, we finished off the lows of the section and as you can see, so far, we are trading higher (a lot higher a few minutes ago), but now settling in.  I have been asking for time decay and sideways markets and it was nice to finally have a down day thrown in. We were overdue, weren't we!
After two solid months of protection/hedging gains, I may back it off a little as I don't want to get greedy and there haven't been any signs that the fundamental news is backing off its steady increse in performance. Another good retail sales number (as I predicted after travelling and dining out this past weekend). The air traffic is busy and the restaurants and nightclubs are packed. Call it the "now generation". Maybe they are spending their future now, but regardless, they want it now!
When looking at SPY, you can see we are only at the 38.2% retracement mark, so as I get ready to look at April-May protection, I can clearly still say, the risk is to the upside.

Moving into the socially responsible realm: time to sell puts as we learned in the options class last evening? Why not get paid to get into the stock?

As we enter the forex realm, we have had a little pickup in action. The dollar is still getting wacked, but a little topping action in the EUR/USD gave us a BUFFALO BOUNCE  yesterday:

So far, today's action is a little muted as retail sales came in line and overnight, the markets were fairly quiet. Crude is settling down a little and so the USD/CAD is pretty sideways:

See you tonight on the webinar.
Happy Trading
Coach Brian

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