The Local's Take: Late-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

We have had some great movement this week. Will it continue?

But first, I have to get this off my chest. When you wake up early in the morning, you usually hope it is only 2am or 3am and you have 3 to 4 more hours of sleep. Ever since having a kid, whenever I wake up and think it is the early morning hours, it is always closer to 6am or 7am, basically wake up time.

So, I pose the question, why since having a kid does 6am and 7am come much sooner than it did before having a kid. The nights just seem to fly by and before I know it, I am walking into the nursery, seeing his smiling face, kicking legs and changing diapers.

I am sure parents will say that it only gets nuttier!!

Back to the markets - employment is only 6 trading days away. Lots of earnings, GDP, and other releases in between. We have Europe in the news every day and rigs that are spilling oil. Oh yeah, and the claims number that sticks to 450k like glue. But the markets are bullish, almost up to new highs. Almost. Hence the charts on the overall markets:

SPX
DIA

IWM
QQQQ




So, the "line of death" at 78.6% hasn't been broken yet. I look for today's close as well as tomorrow's close to be very important. I would like to sell rallies but today seems stronger than it should be - hence a bull market I "guess". I still think if we hit 1212 again in the SPY, it is a nice risk to reward trade, although obviously if you don't take quick profits, it can be deadly!!
Probably one of these times, we will break more than 30-50 points.

If we sell off today, I think going bearish into the Friday "weekend trade" is the way to go. If nothing else, it gives you protection over the weekend.

I was upside down this morning on my short term trading and got away with a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE. Longs and shorts wouyld have worked!

The point is, we are getting moves and countermoves instead of just one move and if you missed it or traded it wrong, you were done for the day. These markets are a little more forgiving and allowing for "mistakes" but you still need to have:

• money management
• personal flow charts
  

One more trading day tomorrow. After such a busy week, I hope it continues, but no guarantees, so if a trade comes, take it. If not, go skiing!

Locals Tip: 17 inches in 48 hours at Snowbird and more on the way (snow through Sunday). Anyone up for a backcountry tour on Sunday? If not, may just hit Deer Valley's Silver Lake for a hike up Bald Mtn.

Stay safe out there and check out the Sick Day shirts from Locals Have More Fun