Please Visit My Daily Market Commentary at:
http://www.financebanter.com/category/forex
Thanks,
Brian
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Next Up in SPY: 1370
Good Morning,
Let's get fundamentals out of the way. Greece is in the news daily and regardless of the outcome, the big question is are we priced in or not? Meaning, no one has a clue as to what the markets will do post announcement. I will talk about this "conviction/lack of conviction" in the technical session. Additionally on the fundamental side, the US data continues to improve. This week, we have a very light week of data and if recent data is any forecaster, when the data calendar is light, the markets move to the upside.
Technically, we obviously have a conviction and that conviction is to buy equities. 1370 is the technical level that if breached, will finally signal new highs that are clearly above last summer's highs. Again, as my webinars suggest, this "new economy" makes it hard to put to much emphasis on technical data that is "stale".
What I am looking to use to trade is recent data and solid technical patterns. There aren't any recent technical patterns in the broad markets, just the very strong updtrend and if you fight the trend, well, you know the consequences.
So using recent data and understanding the low voalitity, range bound day in forex led me to a nice day trading opportunity. No guarantees though that a rangebound day stays rangebound, so I used a pre-determined stop for a loss and target based on the charts and my trading timframe and overall risk appetite.
Check out the past few days of resistance in the EUR/USD and my thinking was, if the equity markets are rallying, the EUR should rally against the USD. As the equity markets approach 13,000, they may pause and if they pause long enough, the EUR may run out of steam at the old resistance level:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Let's get fundamentals out of the way. Greece is in the news daily and regardless of the outcome, the big question is are we priced in or not? Meaning, no one has a clue as to what the markets will do post announcement. I will talk about this "conviction/lack of conviction" in the technical session. Additionally on the fundamental side, the US data continues to improve. This week, we have a very light week of data and if recent data is any forecaster, when the data calendar is light, the markets move to the upside.
Technically, we obviously have a conviction and that conviction is to buy equities. 1370 is the technical level that if breached, will finally signal new highs that are clearly above last summer's highs. Again, as my webinars suggest, this "new economy" makes it hard to put to much emphasis on technical data that is "stale".
What I am looking to use to trade is recent data and solid technical patterns. There aren't any recent technical patterns in the broad markets, just the very strong updtrend and if you fight the trend, well, you know the consequences.
So using recent data and understanding the low voalitity, range bound day in forex led me to a nice day trading opportunity. No guarantees though that a rangebound day stays rangebound, so I used a pre-determined stop for a loss and target based on the charts and my trading timframe and overall risk appetite.
Check out the past few days of resistance in the EUR/USD and my thinking was, if the equity markets are rallying, the EUR should rally against the USD. As the equity markets approach 13,000, they may pause and if they pause long enough, the EUR may run out of steam at the old resistance level:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
1350 Still Resistance!
Good Morning,
One more day until expiration and I will be watching things closely as the 1350 seems to be a key level going into the final day. Europe is down due to Greece fears - anyone getting tired of the "it's all about Greece syndrome"? The US is up on better than expected data coming from the jobs and manufacturing sectors. Bernanke was on the docket, but his speech was a dud.
Technically, a leader in the "old" economy would be Financials. Looking at XLF, we had our MACD bearish divergence - see the webinar link below for more information on MACD's and bearish divergences. THE leader, AAPL had a big reversal day and overall, the SPY had a very bearish candle yesterday - let's watch the close today. A close below yesterday could signal some a bearish entry based on the bearish divergence in its MACD. As always, stops and trading plans are necessary to enter any trade comfortably. It should be an interesting trade up here at these "lofty" levels.
With Greece being in the news, the EUR/USD dropped pretty significantly over the past few days, but with the inter-market relationships hanging in there, the EUR found some support and had a swing/intermediate trade to the upside. It was a tough call down there. Obviously the risk reward down there was not a good place to be a seller as it already came down 350 pips. But buying it as I mentioned, was a tough call due to the fundamentals at work. This is the point of understanding value using Fibonacci retracements. You are able to understand the longer trend, the amount the trend retraced and then decide where your stop and target goes depending on the volatility, your trading timeframe and the range of the markets:
I will be looking to see what the SPY does at the close today. If we close at or near the highs of the day, we may run a bit tomorrow into the weekend - the famous, no reason for it, Friday rally.
MACD Bearish Divergence Webinar: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/542544601
Most recent webinar on Moving Averages: http://www.youtube.com/user/InterbankFXvideos?ob=0#p/c/928F4D24203A3621/0/4bJsyd8VIHo
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Forex Leads Equities!
Good Morning,
Our fundamental views continue to hinge on Europe. As austerity measures continue to push forward, is the success of government intervention priced into the markets? On the "regular" data side, we had retail sales today - bit softer, but nothing out of the ordinary given our recent batch of good news over the past 6 months. If gas prices continue to climb, do we see a stall in retail sales. Maybe, but it won't be because of oil prices. We as Americans have had much higher gas prices and are totally willing to pay for them. How do I know this? Well, Ford dropped its Hybrid Escape SUV for 2013 and more importantly, why are all electric cars so ugly? Is it a deal between big oil and carmakers to make totally unattractive electric cars? Oh yeah, we still have Bernanke, claims and yaaaawwwn, inflation data.
Technically, check out the EUR/USD as it broke hard yesterday, even when the equity markets finished near their highs of the day. Then, today, we have the USD continuing its upmove while US equities open lower. Did the strength in the USD yesterday afternoon lead equities to open lower today? Overall, 1350 is still resistance in SPX:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Technically, does XLF lead the markets? The financial sector used to. Check out the MACD as it is showing a bearish divergence. If you listened to last night's webinar, you heard me talk about trends and a great technical indicator for trends: moving averages. In the next webinar, see how we adapt moving averages into the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to show "bearish divergences" and see if the trend is losing steam. Is the trend on XLF finally losing steam? The MACD says yes:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Thursday Metastock Webinar: http://www.equis.com/events/webinars/?t=SEMWEB-TIBM&p=37637
Feb 29 MACD Webinar: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/542544601
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Our fundamental views continue to hinge on Europe. As austerity measures continue to push forward, is the success of government intervention priced into the markets? On the "regular" data side, we had retail sales today - bit softer, but nothing out of the ordinary given our recent batch of good news over the past 6 months. If gas prices continue to climb, do we see a stall in retail sales. Maybe, but it won't be because of oil prices. We as Americans have had much higher gas prices and are totally willing to pay for them. How do I know this? Well, Ford dropped its Hybrid Escape SUV for 2013 and more importantly, why are all electric cars so ugly? Is it a deal between big oil and carmakers to make totally unattractive electric cars? Oh yeah, we still have Bernanke, claims and yaaaawwwn, inflation data.
Technically, check out the EUR/USD as it broke hard yesterday, even when the equity markets finished near their highs of the day. Then, today, we have the USD continuing its upmove while US equities open lower. Did the strength in the USD yesterday afternoon lead equities to open lower today? Overall, 1350 is still resistance in SPX:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Technically, does XLF lead the markets? The financial sector used to. Check out the MACD as it is showing a bearish divergence. If you listened to last night's webinar, you heard me talk about trends and a great technical indicator for trends: moving averages. In the next webinar, see how we adapt moving averages into the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to show "bearish divergences" and see if the trend is losing steam. Is the trend on XLF finally losing steam? The MACD says yes:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Thursday Metastock Webinar: http://www.equis.com/events/webinars/?t=SEMWEB-TIBM&p=37637
Feb 29 MACD Webinar: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/542544601
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Friday, February 10, 2012
Trend Is Your Friend, Until...
Good Morning,
Today's trading activity could be far from over as we have Bernanke on the docket in about 1 hour. Could we also see the "famous Friday rally" where equity prices take back there losses and then some? I hope not as the 1350 equity level will hopefully provide some resistance for a few more trading day.
I still feel like the longer we stay up on our highs and the longer the buying comes in at the lows of the day to take us higher, we are setting up for a 500 point day to the upside where finally all shorts are squeezed (if there are any left).
Finishing off the fundamental picture, as mentioned, we have Bernanke today. Next week we have the regular international event/speaker onslaught, but in addition, we have:
**retail sales
**weekly initial jobless claims (trending down and backing up the upmove in equities)
**bernanke (again)
**philly fed
**inflation data (doesn't matter due to the Fed telling us that there isn't any worry of inflation, hence it is ok to maintain record low interest rates). Tell the Fed to buy food, diapers, health benefits, prescription meds, etc...
One important piece of information to remember is the Fed mentioned that the pace of growth will slow and will be well below their expectations - again, that is why interest rates are being held to very, very low rates. So watch the economic calendar to see if the recent growth starts to lag.
Technically, as mentioned, I am watching the 1350 level in SPX and hoping we hang below it for another 3 to 5 trading days. Technically, if you read yesterday's post, it talked about trends and the length of the uptrend and eventually the trend stopping. I am not saying the trend is stopping just because equities went down today, but, the higher it goes, the less your risk to reward ratio lines up. Bottom line: manage each and every trade with stops and have a trading plan that helped you arrive at the appropriate number of shares or contracts traded for your trading style, for your trading timeframe and for your account size.
To the charts: BP and its approach to resistance. Would it be far fetched to write covered calls, take buy puts or lighten up your position at these levels?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, you have to remember, backing off a few percentage points doesn't mean anything as far as a trend is concerned. We have gone up 100% in the stock market in less than 3 years. We are still in an uptrend!!
In forex, the USD is still in a downtrend. Just because the USD strengthened today (see inter-market relationships between USD and equity prices), doesn't mean the downtrend in the USD is over. Is it a retracement? Is it a sideways consolidation?
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Link to Monday's Webinar on Moving Average Crossover's
Coach Brian
Today's trading activity could be far from over as we have Bernanke on the docket in about 1 hour. Could we also see the "famous Friday rally" where equity prices take back there losses and then some? I hope not as the 1350 equity level will hopefully provide some resistance for a few more trading day.
I still feel like the longer we stay up on our highs and the longer the buying comes in at the lows of the day to take us higher, we are setting up for a 500 point day to the upside where finally all shorts are squeezed (if there are any left).
Finishing off the fundamental picture, as mentioned, we have Bernanke today. Next week we have the regular international event/speaker onslaught, but in addition, we have:
**retail sales
**weekly initial jobless claims (trending down and backing up the upmove in equities)
**bernanke (again)
**philly fed
**inflation data (doesn't matter due to the Fed telling us that there isn't any worry of inflation, hence it is ok to maintain record low interest rates). Tell the Fed to buy food, diapers, health benefits, prescription meds, etc...
One important piece of information to remember is the Fed mentioned that the pace of growth will slow and will be well below their expectations - again, that is why interest rates are being held to very, very low rates. So watch the economic calendar to see if the recent growth starts to lag.
Technically, as mentioned, I am watching the 1350 level in SPX and hoping we hang below it for another 3 to 5 trading days. Technically, if you read yesterday's post, it talked about trends and the length of the uptrend and eventually the trend stopping. I am not saying the trend is stopping just because equities went down today, but, the higher it goes, the less your risk to reward ratio lines up. Bottom line: manage each and every trade with stops and have a trading plan that helped you arrive at the appropriate number of shares or contracts traded for your trading style, for your trading timeframe and for your account size.
To the charts: BP and its approach to resistance. Would it be far fetched to write covered calls, take buy puts or lighten up your position at these levels?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Overall, you have to remember, backing off a few percentage points doesn't mean anything as far as a trend is concerned. We have gone up 100% in the stock market in less than 3 years. We are still in an uptrend!!
In forex, the USD is still in a downtrend. Just because the USD strengthened today (see inter-market relationships between USD and equity prices), doesn't mean the downtrend in the USD is over. Is it a retracement? Is it a sideways consolidation?
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Link to Monday's Webinar on Moving Average Crossover's
Coach Brian
Thursday, February 9, 2012
The Trend Is Your Friend
Good Morning,
I am guessing we will see a shift at some point in the fundamentals and/or technicals that will tell us this bull run is over. By my count, in 2 months, we went from 1200 in SPX to 1352. The math comes out to 13%. As of the first of the year, the SPX is up 7.4 percent.
If you are an intra-day trader, you know that the ranges are tightening up as equities rally and volatility declines. You also know that there is a lot of buying pressure and the fact that sellers are non-existent and that more money "is on the sidelines" and could come in, equities STILL have huge upside potential.
You know me, I am conservative and even though the trend is motoring to the upside, I still approach it cautiously and trade strategies that I think are appropriate for the "frothy" markets. I am not saying I am necessarily standing in the way of them, I am just saying that I am happy to catch SOME part of the move. As the title suggest, the trend is up and strategies that work in a bullish market are fair game...until something tells us the bull market run is over.
Let's face it, someone will get in as the markets get to their "highs" and then reverse. That someone will have to take a loser as things start to roll over. That person has seen their portfolio increase substantially over the past few years if it is tracking the broad index. You can not forget how well the markets performed and at some point that will change and at some point we may have a loser buying the equity market. We have to be OK taking a loser, that is part of trading, right? As long as we use technical analysis, the proper risk to reward and the proper strategies, we won't have a loser that is abnormal to our trading account, risk tolerance, prior gains, etc...
Moving over to forex, the trends are in place with the USD getting weaker and weaker and weaker. The same thing will happen. Someone inevitably will have a loser selling the USD. If you keep it on context with your recent trades and performance, a loser going with the trend and using fundamentals and technicals is OK!
Just a sidebar, the Bloomberg commentator just said: "Equities are having a rough day". Is she serious? Equities are having a rough day? The SPX was at 665 less than 3 years ago, we are now at 1352 - more than 100% in gains. And she is saying that we are having a rough day? So you can see where I am going with this. As I said, I am not standing in the way until fundamentals and technicals tell me to do so. But, I am approaching this bull market with conservative bull market strategies (and bear market strategies for the USD).
Link to Monday's Webinar on Moving Average Crossovers
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
I am guessing we will see a shift at some point in the fundamentals and/or technicals that will tell us this bull run is over. By my count, in 2 months, we went from 1200 in SPX to 1352. The math comes out to 13%. As of the first of the year, the SPX is up 7.4 percent.
If you are an intra-day trader, you know that the ranges are tightening up as equities rally and volatility declines. You also know that there is a lot of buying pressure and the fact that sellers are non-existent and that more money "is on the sidelines" and could come in, equities STILL have huge upside potential.
You know me, I am conservative and even though the trend is motoring to the upside, I still approach it cautiously and trade strategies that I think are appropriate for the "frothy" markets. I am not saying I am necessarily standing in the way of them, I am just saying that I am happy to catch SOME part of the move. As the title suggest, the trend is up and strategies that work in a bullish market are fair game...until something tells us the bull market run is over.
Let's face it, someone will get in as the markets get to their "highs" and then reverse. That someone will have to take a loser as things start to roll over. That person has seen their portfolio increase substantially over the past few years if it is tracking the broad index. You can not forget how well the markets performed and at some point that will change and at some point we may have a loser buying the equity market. We have to be OK taking a loser, that is part of trading, right? As long as we use technical analysis, the proper risk to reward and the proper strategies, we won't have a loser that is abnormal to our trading account, risk tolerance, prior gains, etc...
Moving over to forex, the trends are in place with the USD getting weaker and weaker and weaker. The same thing will happen. Someone inevitably will have a loser selling the USD. If you keep it on context with your recent trades and performance, a loser going with the trend and using fundamentals and technicals is OK!
Just a sidebar, the Bloomberg commentator just said: "Equities are having a rough day". Is she serious? Equities are having a rough day? The SPX was at 665 less than 3 years ago, we are now at 1352 - more than 100% in gains. And she is saying that we are having a rough day? So you can see where I am going with this. As I said, I am not standing in the way until fundamentals and technicals tell me to do so. But, I am approaching this bull market with conservative bull market strategies (and bear market strategies for the USD).
Link to Monday's Webinar on Moving Average Crossovers
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
1350 In SPX, Now What?
Good Morning,
Fundamentally, we have Bernanke on the microphone right now. Additionally, we have claims later in the week and a Friday appearance by Bernanke. I will be looking for the AYOH trade setup on Friday if Bernanke provides any fireworks (yeah right!!!)
Technically, we are bumping up against the 1350 level in SPX. It seems like given recent buying pressure the 1350 area really isn't a level. Technically, you have to be very careful to "lean" on previous levels or ideas as every day, week and month presents us with new overarching mentalities and obviously as of late, the overarching mentality for the technicals has been buy, buy, buy as it relates to equities. For the most part, that has translated to a soft US dollar.
I have been posting some recent articles about the 'V' pattern and I want to expand on that to include "dual timeframe" analysis. The first chart is a Daily chart of the EUR/USD. Look at yesterday's bar - the rejection we saw as the EUR was on its lows. It shows a classic hammer, where the lows were clearly rejected. The second chart will show the intraday chart - a 30 minute view of yesterday's action with a 'V' drawn in and the famous Fibonacci that shows the full retracement and a close near the highs of the day. When we have a close that takes back all of the downside action, you usually have a follow through the next day. We have seen it day after day in equities and we are seeing it day after day in the USD as it loses ground:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Buying Pressure in the SPX
Good Morning,
First off, thanks to all who made the webinar full of great content. As I said, the more you participate with questions, the better it gets as we can cover more ancillary topics. If I didn't get to your question, feel free to get in touch with via email or on the IBFX Connect Site at "thelocalstake".
Fundamentally, we still have Bernanke, claims and unemployment. Is Bernanke going to warn us and try to temper a poor unemployment report so that the markets take some of the pain out on Thursday and it isn't a total shock to our system on Friday?
Technically, we have local resistance at 1330 and then major resistance from last summer at 1350(ish).
Getting to today's main topic, buying in the SPX. Take a look at the low price of the day over the past few trading days and then look at the close. Every time the SPX dips, buyers step in. Accumulation, accumulation, accumulation. Sellers dry up because they are beat up and buyers know they have the right of way to the upside:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Eventually you explode out, like today. And, even though the SPX isn't above recent resistance, many fore pairs are. Check out the GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CAD (new lows). But, this brings an important relationship into play. The USD/CAD is at new lows, but oil is stagnat at the 100.00 mark. Thus, USO is stagnant as well - so USO and oil aren't participating (yet) in the equity rally and the weakening US dollar:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now you can see what a trading range looks like. Still opportunities to trade, but instead of focusing on a trend, you are focusing on support and resistance.
Link to Upcoming Webinar
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
The "V" Pattern
Good Morning,
Fundamentally, there haven't been a lot of fireworks (news) which is keeping equities bid given the central bank agreement to strengthen equities. The news also keeps overall volatility low (see last week's post on the VIX). We do have speakers and data ahead, but as I have mentioned many times, the Fed is taking the excitement out of these releases.
Technically, buyers are in charge in equities and sellers are in charge of the the USD. Trends are in place and if you are going against them, you must go against them in very, very specific places with very specific exit strategies if the trend continues and puts your position under water. In addition, trading size is important - if going against the trend and "hoping" it changes direction, trade smaller size. If the trend changes, it may change forecefully for some un-anticipated reason. If it doesn't change, your losses are small. Finally, if you do have a winner due to the trade going your way, you may want to lower stops/take profits because even though the trade goes your way just a bit doesn't mean that the trend has changed. A small retracement in a large trend does not mean much to the overall trend.
Technically, we can take a closer look. Equities were off quite a lot yesterday around the world. The US equity market was almost off 1% at one time. Check out yesterday's SPX chart and the move that we made to retrace the early losses. We basically retraced 100% - a very strong retracement by the end of the day:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
What does that mean to me? The trend has been up, some sellers came in and obviously the sellers were wrong. The early downtrend changed course and the markets rallied, rallied, rallied. If you are short, think about your profits. They are dwindling, dwindling, and dwindling. Then, you are under water. With no news overnight, the markets say "we got those shorts pinned" and futures as of this writing are pointing to a higher opening.
Now let's look at the USD against the GBP. Here is yesterday's trade with the USD strong in the Asian/European session, then weak in the US session as US equities rally. Then, what happens as Asia and Europe open? They wag the tail of the dog and follow in the footseps (quite often) of the US equity session. So buyers step in and drag the GBP higher and higher against the pound as international equities move higher in anticipation of the US equity session following through on its "V" pattern and hopefully opening higher on Tuesday morning. Well folks, so far we are.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Equity futures are off and running on Tuesday morning in the US and The GBP is much higher than yesterday's close. The white vertical dotted line is the "period" separater and shows each new trading day - you can easily put this property in place by going to your chart properties.
I will post intraday on IBFX Connect at the "thelocalstake" and also host a free IBFX webinar on Trading Psycyology and YOU as a trader this evening.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Fundamentally, there haven't been a lot of fireworks (news) which is keeping equities bid given the central bank agreement to strengthen equities. The news also keeps overall volatility low (see last week's post on the VIX). We do have speakers and data ahead, but as I have mentioned many times, the Fed is taking the excitement out of these releases.
Technically, buyers are in charge in equities and sellers are in charge of the the USD. Trends are in place and if you are going against them, you must go against them in very, very specific places with very specific exit strategies if the trend continues and puts your position under water. In addition, trading size is important - if going against the trend and "hoping" it changes direction, trade smaller size. If the trend changes, it may change forecefully for some un-anticipated reason. If it doesn't change, your losses are small. Finally, if you do have a winner due to the trade going your way, you may want to lower stops/take profits because even though the trade goes your way just a bit doesn't mean that the trend has changed. A small retracement in a large trend does not mean much to the overall trend.
Technically, we can take a closer look. Equities were off quite a lot yesterday around the world. The US equity market was almost off 1% at one time. Check out yesterday's SPX chart and the move that we made to retrace the early losses. We basically retraced 100% - a very strong retracement by the end of the day:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
What does that mean to me? The trend has been up, some sellers came in and obviously the sellers were wrong. The early downtrend changed course and the markets rallied, rallied, rallied. If you are short, think about your profits. They are dwindling, dwindling, and dwindling. Then, you are under water. With no news overnight, the markets say "we got those shorts pinned" and futures as of this writing are pointing to a higher opening.
Now let's look at the USD against the GBP. Here is yesterday's trade with the USD strong in the Asian/European session, then weak in the US session as US equities rally. Then, what happens as Asia and Europe open? They wag the tail of the dog and follow in the footseps (quite often) of the US equity session. So buyers step in and drag the GBP higher and higher against the pound as international equities move higher in anticipation of the US equity session following through on its "V" pattern and hopefully opening higher on Tuesday morning. Well folks, so far we are.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Equity futures are off and running on Tuesday morning in the US and The GBP is much higher than yesterday's close. The white vertical dotted line is the "period" separater and shows each new trading day - you can easily put this property in place by going to your chart properties.
I will post intraday on IBFX Connect at the "thelocalstake" and also host a free IBFX webinar on Trading Psycyology and YOU as a trader this evening.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Kick It On Down The Line
Good Morning,
You may be asking what "IT" is. "IT" is a few things.
One "it" would be volatility. The longer that governments stay involved in the markets, the longer volatility will stay at the lower end. There may be spikes here and ther, but overall, if equities stay bullish to neutral, there is no way the VIX can rise and there is no way that there will be intraday opportunities like there would be in normal trading markets without government interference.
Point in case: the largest range we have had in the GBP/USD over the past 3 weeks is 125 pips and most of those days have been trend up and then sideways action during the US session. I do have to admit, there has been more action in the European session, but unfortunately, I value my sleep. It would be fantastic to live/trade out of Europe, so I do envy you guys - hopefully you are taking advantage of a smidge more volatility then we are seeing over here in the US session.
That being said, I know that most of the volume is going through at the end of the European session and the beginning of the American session. so then again, maybe we are overlapping just a bit.
"IT" number two is refers to kicking REALITY" down the line. No one and I will stress this, NO ONE has been through this type of intervention before and NO ONE knows the long term affects of it. Will it work? Right now as far as equities go, it is working perfectly! There isn't anywhere else to put your money except in equities. I am referring here to what bonds give you as far as income versus dividends and growth that stocks have. I of course know that a stock can go down in price, but overall, the stock market as a whole is performing better than bond markets, real estate, etc... We all know that is a fact, but obviously anything can happen in the markets and location, location, location. All I am saying is where are you going to put your money? In bonds returning1% in 10 years or in a stock market that is going up, up, up. This in itself may lead to volatility as investors seek refuge in stocks and when volatility hits, they get very nervous. They used to be in bonds that were "guaranteed" income and now they are in a stock that may be dropping in price.
So "IT" number two and low interest rates forces people to seek returns in what can be a volatile stock market. "IT" number two is also the Fed kicking reality down the road and thus, may actually be providing future volatility that could be around for a long time that is actually very benefiical to you and me.
The point is, "IT" is in place and "IT" is being prolonged and we don't know when "IT" will stop and add new volatility. For now, sitting on your hands as one preson on IBFX's "Connect" put it (you can follow me at "thelocalstake") may be the best thing to do.
I am looking forward to reality setting in, it is just a matter of how long down the road it re-enters our trading monitors.
IBFX Webinar next Tuesday at 9pm Eastern - "YOU are the Holy Grail"
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
You may be asking what "IT" is. "IT" is a few things.
One "it" would be volatility. The longer that governments stay involved in the markets, the longer volatility will stay at the lower end. There may be spikes here and ther, but overall, if equities stay bullish to neutral, there is no way the VIX can rise and there is no way that there will be intraday opportunities like there would be in normal trading markets without government interference.
Point in case: the largest range we have had in the GBP/USD over the past 3 weeks is 125 pips and most of those days have been trend up and then sideways action during the US session. I do have to admit, there has been more action in the European session, but unfortunately, I value my sleep. It would be fantastic to live/trade out of Europe, so I do envy you guys - hopefully you are taking advantage of a smidge more volatility then we are seeing over here in the US session.
That being said, I know that most of the volume is going through at the end of the European session and the beginning of the American session. so then again, maybe we are overlapping just a bit.
"IT" number two is refers to kicking REALITY" down the line. No one and I will stress this, NO ONE has been through this type of intervention before and NO ONE knows the long term affects of it. Will it work? Right now as far as equities go, it is working perfectly! There isn't anywhere else to put your money except in equities. I am referring here to what bonds give you as far as income versus dividends and growth that stocks have. I of course know that a stock can go down in price, but overall, the stock market as a whole is performing better than bond markets, real estate, etc... We all know that is a fact, but obviously anything can happen in the markets and location, location, location. All I am saying is where are you going to put your money? In bonds returning1% in 10 years or in a stock market that is going up, up, up. This in itself may lead to volatility as investors seek refuge in stocks and when volatility hits, they get very nervous. They used to be in bonds that were "guaranteed" income and now they are in a stock that may be dropping in price.
So "IT" number two and low interest rates forces people to seek returns in what can be a volatile stock market. "IT" number two is also the Fed kicking reality down the road and thus, may actually be providing future volatility that could be around for a long time that is actually very benefiical to you and me.
The point is, "IT" is in place and "IT" is being prolonged and we don't know when "IT" will stop and add new volatility. For now, sitting on your hands as one preson on IBFX's "Connect" put it (you can follow me at "thelocalstake") may be the best thing to do.
I am looking forward to reality setting in, it is just a matter of how long down the road it re-enters our trading monitors.
IBFX Webinar next Tuesday at 9pm Eastern - "YOU are the Holy Grail"
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
Trading the Fed
Good Morning,
The Fed came out with their "new" transparency statement. I am not sure how much more transparency we need then them saying "through the end of 2014". OK, so the definition of transparency is telling us far in advance what they intend to do. So they can't go back on their word regarding interest rate changes through 2014. That means we just received 3 whole years of transparency relating to LOW interest rates, subdued growth, unemployment and a "muddling" economy.
I hope this makes sense that the biggest traders in the world are telling us they are supporting market movement.
The equity markets have been moving to the updside and got a huge burst over the past 24 hours. The USD has been very, very weak and weakened ever more significantly over the past 24 hours.
Thsi can be turned into a great trading psychology lesson as it is such a good example of "not standing in the way" because something is "too high or too low". Whether you are trading forex and the intraday move is 250 pips in one direction (way bigger than the average trading ranges) or it is a stock moving 20% in the same direction, entities can always go higher or lower and they can move farther than your account can stay solvent if you are against it.
So, we use technical analysis to give us trading plans. Right now, it is hard to say when and where equities are going to turn around. Before I move into the charts though, let's cover fundamental analysis. We already covered the Fed. Earnings have been pretty solid, but again, in the background when the Fed makes a statement like this. Weekly jobless claims were above expectations for the first time in quite a while - I want to keep an eye on the moving average as I expect these to not decline as fast as they have been. And to top it off, we are only 6 trading days away from the unemployment report. Early expectations are for gains of 200k - I expect us to come in at that level or below, but would be very surprised at a 200+ figure. I think the USD economy has done exceedingly well and it may be time for it to come back in line just a bit.
To the charts. We have a longer term chart of NZD/USD and you can see the huge move up in the NZD and how it (like many, many currencies) is at a recent area of resistance:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And the EUR/USD:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving to equities, we obviously had a pop in GLD on the announcement. But there are trendlines in play and some areas of recent resistance nearby just as we have in the forex markets:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And finally, I have been keeping an eye on XLF. Could it have a bearish divergence on the short term MACD? It "used" to be a leading indicator, but not so much as of late. Regardless, the percentage run up and the nearby resistance as well as some 50/50 earnings reports for some of the financial entities could give it some toppiness:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Again, the Fed is the largest trader out there and they are very, very bullish/supportive of our equity market. Now the question becomes, how much was priced in. If we rally through the 1350-1370 SPX level, then obviously it wasn't priced in!
"Intraday comments on "IBFX Connect" at "thelocalstake"
IBFX Webinar next Tuesday at 9pm Eastern - "YOU are the Holy Grail"
Link to excellent software research systems.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Protecting the SPX Relationship Based Trading
Good Morning,
I was updating the IBFX social site and my "thelocalstake" posting and stressed how inter-market relationships can get you into trades early.
Before I get to it, fundamentally, we have a slew of data, including the FOMC. Remember, there "new" transparency operating stance. By the way, they said they wanted to be more transparent back in 2000-2003. Are they now going to tell us that they get data well before us and that is why they make the decisions that they do?
Anyway, I have been saying that 1350 could be a multi-year high ever since we set that high last summer. I expected the world calamities that are happening and a very, very slow economic recovery. No on expected the kind of coordinated bailouts that are occurring - and as the Fed is being transparent will CONTINUE TO OCCUR. You must understand this, the Fed and other Central Banks are still in play and that makes for low volatility, rising equity trade scenarios. Trade accordingly!!!
To the inter-market relationship chart:
Check out the USD/CAD - support occurs when USO gets overbought and thus oil and for the most part, equity prices. It has acted as a nice hedge to the portfolio and even if the portfolio still goes higher, for whatever reason, oil, USO haven't been able to and obviously that turn drives the USD to find strength against the CAD. As we all know, anything can happen, so sound trading plans, and proper risk to reward setups with stops and target orders are necessary. Never, ever trade without a plan or stops in place!!
The point is, look how often this trade happens - once per month. Between this relationship and some other regular trades you rely on (see Buffalo Bounce and its success about once per week), that ends up being a very, very strong trading month.
Volatility will return, it is just a matter of when. Stay solvent until it does by expanding your horizons and doing research. Now is the time to research and find relationships, NOT to overtrade.
Link to free IBFX webinar.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Friday, January 20, 2012
Bullish Equities In Charge
Good Morning,
It is dumping snow outside and it is definitely time to break out the powder skis. It has been a long wait as we haven't had snow in over 2 months - thankfully there are amazing snow makers and groomers out there!! Those amazing teams helped me to stay PATIENT and wait for the snow without complaint. We knew the snow would come and now is the time to ski it, so thank you groomers/snowmakers. Oh yeah, the disclaimer: I work as a Mountain Host at Deer Valley giving tours to our guests on the weekends and so if you are in the area, say hi to me on the mountain!
Why the snowy prelude? Well, I included a key word in there: PATIENCE. If a trader is to survive, patience is one of the most important characteristics that they must display.
These markets can try your patience, but you can't let them get to you. I posted similar thoughts on the IBFX Connect Site under "thelocalstake". If you are looking for intraday help, please follow me on that unique social site.
Why do they try your patience? Well, take for example today's range in the EUR/USD since American equities opened at GMT 13:30: 1.2884 on the low end and 1.2950 on the high end for a total of 65 pips. That isn't what we are used to. We are used to ranges of 150 pip and more, but more importantly, we are looking for trends, retracements, more trends, retracements, etc...
Right now we are seeing a trend and then sideways consolidation. The VIX is low (not pricing in much "movement", the equities are on a tear (no sellers in sight) and volume has been lower.
BUT, there are opporuntities. You just have to be a little more PATIENT as we wait for opportunities. As you know, I am an intraday trader but I also understand the larger fundamental drivers and how to read a chart with longer timeframes than my normal 5 and 15 minute charts. So, using PATIENCE, I am ADAPTING to lower volatility markets and looking for opportunities.
Here is the setup and I talked about this in previous posts: You know I love Fibonacci's (I basically can't wake up without thinking about Fibonacci's) and so as long as I understand how to use them, what is the difference if I use them for a 5 minute trade or a 3 day trade. Check out the EUR/USD as it got weaker and weaker and then hit the "line of death". I mentioned a week ago that if the equities hang in there and the relationship between the USD and equity prices comes back into play, maybe the EUR is oversold compared to the USD. We all know what equities are doing over the last week and here is what the EUR/USD did over the last week:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
The point here is, I have an understanding of the fundamental drivers, how to use technical analysis through a diverse toolbox and more importantly, PATIENCE to wait for what I think are overbought or oversold areas. The most important component is that I built a TRADING PLAN and patiently waited to execute it and then planned to manage it from beginning to end using "trade massaging/management". I do not execute anything and then walk away. I am constantly monitoring the drivers affecting market movement no matter if it is a 5 minute or a daily chart.
You know I always give a fundamental view: equity markets are on cruise control. Fundamentals are improving and until "new surprises" come, I am neutral to bullish the equity markets over the next quarter (but, as you know, that opinion could change in an instant).
Technically, until sellers come in, be very, very careful of over-protecting your account if you are hedging your equity investments/401k's/IRA's/pension plans/etc.. Soon though, I may think about getting ready to maybe "stand in the way" of the equity bull run with some portoflio protection strategies - but that depends on the next week or so of action.
No matter the reason for the trade, the length of the trade, the size of the trade, please develop a sound trading plan and manage it from beginning to end. It is essential in these markets to always put stops in place as the entry order is executed.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Market Internals (and Trading Psychology)
Good Morning,
There is something to be said about surrounding yourself with better people. I created a local trading/investing club a few years ago and had 2 emails on the list. We now have 120 emails and a monthly gathering of 8 to 20 people. Of these, a few are regulars who absolutely love the financial markets and between the two of them, bring over 70 years of trading experience.
While living in Chicago, I was able to have this type of banter on a daily basis with my team. Now, trading from a remote location, that "banter" has become less frequent. Many times, not having another opinion from another source or another set of eyes, can lead to poor trading decisions.
Last night's meeting, where I act as the host/moderator and come with some high level topics, was another learning experience for me. I give my synopsis of the fundamental and technical pictue and the open it up to others. Most of the talking is done by a few people, but I make sure that the audience is understanding the core concepts and most of all TRADING PSYCHOLOGY that these markets demand.
One subject we got onto was the dealings of capitol hill and financial regulation - the conclusion was that this type of regulation could "halt" commerce as it has been done in the past and power seekers may interfere with the normal workings of the markets. All of this is good if you can handle volatility and are prepared to trade it appropriately.
We wrapped up by acknowledging the bull market and realize standing in the way of it can be suicidal to your account. Just as important, we agree that the markets, providing there isn't some unforseen bearish act, that there is an underlying bid to the equity markets and that "dropping out of bed" doesn't seem realistic.
Until this bull market finishes its run, VIX may stay closer to 20 and intraday trading ranges may be a fraction of what they normally are.
On today's "Connect Site", where you can follow me under "thelocalstake", I talked about fading the moves. If equity markets back off a bit, there could be some USD strengthening.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
There is something to be said about surrounding yourself with better people. I created a local trading/investing club a few years ago and had 2 emails on the list. We now have 120 emails and a monthly gathering of 8 to 20 people. Of these, a few are regulars who absolutely love the financial markets and between the two of them, bring over 70 years of trading experience.
While living in Chicago, I was able to have this type of banter on a daily basis with my team. Now, trading from a remote location, that "banter" has become less frequent. Many times, not having another opinion from another source or another set of eyes, can lead to poor trading decisions.
Last night's meeting, where I act as the host/moderator and come with some high level topics, was another learning experience for me. I give my synopsis of the fundamental and technical pictue and the open it up to others. Most of the talking is done by a few people, but I make sure that the audience is understanding the core concepts and most of all TRADING PSYCHOLOGY that these markets demand.
One subject we got onto was the dealings of capitol hill and financial regulation - the conclusion was that this type of regulation could "halt" commerce as it has been done in the past and power seekers may interfere with the normal workings of the markets. All of this is good if you can handle volatility and are prepared to trade it appropriately.
We wrapped up by acknowledging the bull market and realize standing in the way of it can be suicidal to your account. Just as important, we agree that the markets, providing there isn't some unforseen bearish act, that there is an underlying bid to the equity markets and that "dropping out of bed" doesn't seem realistic.
Until this bull market finishes its run, VIX may stay closer to 20 and intraday trading ranges may be a fraction of what they normally are.
On today's "Connect Site", where you can follow me under "thelocalstake", I talked about fading the moves. If equity markets back off a bit, there could be some USD strengthening.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Monday, January 16, 2012
SPX Still Bullish
Good Evening,
The buyers are still in charge regarding SPX and as I write this, the sellers are in charge of the USD. So the all important USD and equity relationship is still in play. It has been coming and going, but when it is in play, it makes for a very nice trading oppportunity. Again, sometimes the relationship isn't in play and it takes a trader who is paying attention to market fundamentals and technicals to understand this, create a trading plan with correct risk to reward and be prepared to manage the trade and even take a loss if the trade doesn't work out.
My point here is there are no guarantees, but trading "edges" is what we are looking for and patience, discipline and trading plans allow us to enter the markets with confidence regardless of the outcome.
I don't think that there is a holy grail to do this for you. I think that having a knowledge of the inner workings of the markets and these all important "inter-market relationships" can make you a more successful trader and a more knowledgeable trader.
Fundamenally, as long as international events stay quiet, we should have markets testing upside resistance. Regarding data, we have our first look at manufacturing data (Philly Fed) and the usual slate of claims. We also have inflation data (if you have been living under a rock, the Fed has told us there is no inlfation and that even if there was, we created it and don't care about it). In addition, we have earnings data, so be on the lookout if you own stocks/use options to trade and protect your stock investments.
Technically, let's look at the SPX and some nearby trendlines:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Next up, we have my most recent favorite equity market hedge, USO. Can you spot resistance?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And as a result, you have the "inter-market relationship". If you can spot resistance in USO, you can spot support in the USD/CAD. If you think USO is overvalued, what does that mean for the CAD? It probably is too rich and the USD finds support:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And now to the EUR/USD. Everyone loves to hate the EUR these days. Last week I mentioned that if the equity markets hang in, will EUR find some support. Well, check out the EUR/USD at the "line of death":
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And looking closer at it, look at the little double bottom it is making and it has been good for a small upmove if you have very specific entries using Fibonacci's, "inter-market relationships" and general market knowledge.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
This trade is a very good indicator of how a short term trader and a long term trader can use the same entry.
Let me explain:
1. if the short term trader thinks 76.4 will hold, they use that as support, put there stop below it and put their target 50-100 pips above (they are going against the downtrend, so they are happy with a very small gain (not that 50-100 pips is a small gain))
2. the long term trader may feel that the 76.4 is a longer term support. They risk the same amount of pips or just a bit more than the short term trader and put there target 100-300 pips higher.
Again, these are all "theories" and regardless of the trade duration, each trader needs to have the plan set in place before the entry and then set there stop price for a loss BEFORE (or at the same time) that the entry trade is made to buy the EUR/USD.
Folks, remember, the trend is your friend and the trend is down. If you take a trade like this, you are going against the trend, so first off, have reasonable expectations and secondly, be prepared for the trend to continue and exit at a reasonable, pre-set loss!
Free Webinar Tomorrow Evening - Click Here
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
The buyers are still in charge regarding SPX and as I write this, the sellers are in charge of the USD. So the all important USD and equity relationship is still in play. It has been coming and going, but when it is in play, it makes for a very nice trading oppportunity. Again, sometimes the relationship isn't in play and it takes a trader who is paying attention to market fundamentals and technicals to understand this, create a trading plan with correct risk to reward and be prepared to manage the trade and even take a loss if the trade doesn't work out.
My point here is there are no guarantees, but trading "edges" is what we are looking for and patience, discipline and trading plans allow us to enter the markets with confidence regardless of the outcome.
I don't think that there is a holy grail to do this for you. I think that having a knowledge of the inner workings of the markets and these all important "inter-market relationships" can make you a more successful trader and a more knowledgeable trader.
Fundamenally, as long as international events stay quiet, we should have markets testing upside resistance. Regarding data, we have our first look at manufacturing data (Philly Fed) and the usual slate of claims. We also have inflation data (if you have been living under a rock, the Fed has told us there is no inlfation and that even if there was, we created it and don't care about it). In addition, we have earnings data, so be on the lookout if you own stocks/use options to trade and protect your stock investments.
Technically, let's look at the SPX and some nearby trendlines:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Next up, we have my most recent favorite equity market hedge, USO. Can you spot resistance?
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And as a result, you have the "inter-market relationship". If you can spot resistance in USO, you can spot support in the USD/CAD. If you think USO is overvalued, what does that mean for the CAD? It probably is too rich and the USD finds support:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And now to the EUR/USD. Everyone loves to hate the EUR these days. Last week I mentioned that if the equity markets hang in, will EUR find some support. Well, check out the EUR/USD at the "line of death":
Past performance is not indicative of future results
And looking closer at it, look at the little double bottom it is making and it has been good for a small upmove if you have very specific entries using Fibonacci's, "inter-market relationships" and general market knowledge.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
This trade is a very good indicator of how a short term trader and a long term trader can use the same entry.
Let me explain:
1. if the short term trader thinks 76.4 will hold, they use that as support, put there stop below it and put their target 50-100 pips above (they are going against the downtrend, so they are happy with a very small gain (not that 50-100 pips is a small gain))
2. the long term trader may feel that the 76.4 is a longer term support. They risk the same amount of pips or just a bit more than the short term trader and put there target 100-300 pips higher.
Again, these are all "theories" and regardless of the trade duration, each trader needs to have the plan set in place before the entry and then set there stop price for a loss BEFORE (or at the same time) that the entry trade is made to buy the EUR/USD.
Folks, remember, the trend is your friend and the trend is down. If you take a trade like this, you are going against the trend, so first off, have reasonable expectations and secondly, be prepared for the trend to continue and exit at a reasonable, pre-set loss!
Free Webinar Tomorrow Evening - Click Here
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
SPX Still Bid
Good Morning,
"Less Is More" is my attitude. Volatility is heading for the teens, the SPX is headed for 1300 and every time the equities drop, buyers come back in.
As you know, I preach a conservative approach and look to generate income off my holdings, profit from market volatility and protect my assets when needed.
I also preach that the markets tell us what to do. Right now, the markets are telling me to back off the protection and back off the aggressive growth trades. With the VIX heading towards the teens and the SPX rallying in the face of MANY adversities, it is pretty clear that standing in the way of the bull market in SPX can be quite deadly.
Yes, I am still protecting, albeit lightly. Yes, I am still generating income, but I am prepared to buy back that protection and roll it out on certain stocks and sectors as they break resistance, trendlines, moving averages, etc...
So what does it all come down to? It comes down to using fundamental and technical analysis to guide my decision making. I review this quite regularly, although a little less regularly right now as "less is more".
The one wild card? Earnings. The Fed told us growth will moderate. Will it happen this earnings period? No one knows. And that is the hard part. Do we put on collars now? Do we leave our at or in the money covered calls in place because earnings are going suffer and thus stock prices will suffer? I am not sure, thus I am playing things pretty close to the vest and not over protecting. My defensive size is appropriate for these markets and I am not trying to force the hand of a non-volatile (see VIX) market.
Bringing that over to the forex markets, if the VIX is down, that means volatility across the board is down (see yesterday's range in the forex markets). Today, we have a bit of an outside range day in GBP/USD and I am looking for a Buffalo Bounce if equities start to drop a little bit more. But as I said, equities are "bid" and that means when equities become oversold, the USD becomes overbought and as the USD weakens, a bid appears in the GBP, EUR, etc... I am seeing this on my charts as we speak. The markets rally from down 50 to positive and the USD weakens a bit. It isn't weakening significantly yet, so you still have to understand the niche market of the EUR versus the GBP, etc... Remember, the EUR is very, very different than the GBP given everything going on in Europe. So the bid in the equity markets today as we come off our lows affects the USD in the same general way, but with little nuances here and there depending on the cross currency. Hence, technical analysis. Is the GBP weaker than the EUR today when referring to the dollar? Yes, that seems to be the case. Maybe the EUR is finding some support in the 1.2650 area and if equities rally off some good earnings reports over the next few weeks and European news stays quiet, we get a bit of a rally in the "oversold" EUR.
Lots to focus on. Keep your trading size appropriate for your account and let the markets come to you and give you an entry that has the appropriate risk for your trading timeframe.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
"Less Is More" is my attitude. Volatility is heading for the teens, the SPX is headed for 1300 and every time the equities drop, buyers come back in.
As you know, I preach a conservative approach and look to generate income off my holdings, profit from market volatility and protect my assets when needed.
I also preach that the markets tell us what to do. Right now, the markets are telling me to back off the protection and back off the aggressive growth trades. With the VIX heading towards the teens and the SPX rallying in the face of MANY adversities, it is pretty clear that standing in the way of the bull market in SPX can be quite deadly.
Yes, I am still protecting, albeit lightly. Yes, I am still generating income, but I am prepared to buy back that protection and roll it out on certain stocks and sectors as they break resistance, trendlines, moving averages, etc...
So what does it all come down to? It comes down to using fundamental and technical analysis to guide my decision making. I review this quite regularly, although a little less regularly right now as "less is more".
The one wild card? Earnings. The Fed told us growth will moderate. Will it happen this earnings period? No one knows. And that is the hard part. Do we put on collars now? Do we leave our at or in the money covered calls in place because earnings are going suffer and thus stock prices will suffer? I am not sure, thus I am playing things pretty close to the vest and not over protecting. My defensive size is appropriate for these markets and I am not trying to force the hand of a non-volatile (see VIX) market.
Bringing that over to the forex markets, if the VIX is down, that means volatility across the board is down (see yesterday's range in the forex markets). Today, we have a bit of an outside range day in GBP/USD and I am looking for a Buffalo Bounce if equities start to drop a little bit more. But as I said, equities are "bid" and that means when equities become oversold, the USD becomes overbought and as the USD weakens, a bid appears in the GBP, EUR, etc... I am seeing this on my charts as we speak. The markets rally from down 50 to positive and the USD weakens a bit. It isn't weakening significantly yet, so you still have to understand the niche market of the EUR versus the GBP, etc... Remember, the EUR is very, very different than the GBP given everything going on in Europe. So the bid in the equity markets today as we come off our lows affects the USD in the same general way, but with little nuances here and there depending on the cross currency. Hence, technical analysis. Is the GBP weaker than the EUR today when referring to the dollar? Yes, that seems to be the case. Maybe the EUR is finding some support in the 1.2650 area and if equities rally off some good earnings reports over the next few weeks and European news stays quiet, we get a bit of a rally in the "oversold" EUR.
Lots to focus on. Keep your trading size appropriate for your account and let the markets come to you and give you an entry that has the appropriate risk for your trading timeframe.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Friday, January 6, 2012
SPX Can't Go Down
Good Morning,
Just a quick article to wrap up the week.
We have seen this before. If the markets can't go down and retrace the massive move up, then there is only one way to go and that is higher. We have sold off 3 days in a row after going up 200 points on Tuesday and the buyers have stepped in and the sellers are getting knocked backwards.
Think about the analogy of the pits. If you put your hands up and out, you are a seller. If you are selling to enter an order, you need the markets to go down for your trade to be profitable. All of a sudden hands on the other side of the pit go up and they are bringing their hands towards their faces - buyers. More and more buyers step in and the sellers dry up and the markets rally. You can see this and feel this on Wednesday, Thursday and for the most part today (we will see where we close today).
In the forex markets, the dollar was strong early and then all of a sudden, when equity markets went from down 60 points to up, the dollar weakened. It wasn't a terribly busy/volatile day today during the American equity session for intraday forex traders, but if you understood the previous days where equity buyers stepped in, then you could feel/see/prepare for the bottom to come in on the GBP, the EUR, the AUD and the NZD as they retraced some (or all) of their earlier weakness. The only pair that wasn't able to retrace at all was the USD/CAD, where the USD stayed strong all day. Overall oil prices (see yesterday's post for the inter-market relationship between oil prices and USD/CAD), are pretty flat. A weird thing I am seeing is gas at the pump under 3.00/gallon, yet oil prices are above 100.00. Oil prices should go higher on the jobs news and the potential for an increase in equity market prices as a result.
Overall, as long as the news stays quiet, neutral, somewhat bullish, the equity markets should hang in there and try to sneak a bit higher. I have a 60-90 day projection of low volatility, but after that, it is anyone's guess.
Stay tuned for changes to this "optimism" as international fundamentals and market technicals dictate.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
Thursday, January 5, 2012
SPX In "No Man's Land"
Good Morning and Happy New Year!
As I mentioned in late November, once ski season hits, my posts become a little more infrequent. You can still follow my intraday updates that compliments my daily market commentary at IBFX's Connect Site.
I have a lot of charts to post, but before that a quick trading psychology lesson and a quick fundamental update.
Trading Psychology: Less is more. The VIX is down and there is a lot of uncertainty to start the year, so location, location, location of your trades as well as quality of trades versus quantity. Secondly, the equity markets "seem" to want to go higher (see lower VIX) and that is causing overall "trading opportunities" to be less frequent. As a day trader, I am prepared to trade a few times per week versus a few times per day. This has been my motto since September and has served me well.
Fundamental Update: the USD data is getting better and Europe is "fixed" for now. The equity markets "seem" to want to head to towards 1300 in SPX, causing volatility to stay low. The Fed did warn us that economic growth will be below its mandate (spurring continued central bank coordinated intervention efforts) which no doublt is lending a bid to the markets when they sell off. How much will the economic growth slow from its current what I think is a rapid pace of improvement is the real question.
In a nutshell, I am always protecting my assets, but I have to say, I am not overly protective at this juncture and I am definitely not a buyer/bullish at these levels. I am perfectly fine sitting on the sidelines and missing whatever percentage we move up as I am already involved, I am just not adding new longs at this time. These opinions could change tomorrow, so read on every day for these fundamental opinion updates.
Technically, we have a lot going on. The SPX got above the 200 simple moving average and above hte first trendline. It now has a second trendline as resistance, the 1280ish level, then 1300, then 1350. On the downside, until we break a signifcant percentage, I am not worried about support levels as I am not overweight long. 1200 at a minimum is where I may start having interest for new longs.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
USO has been a favorite of mine to protect equities. Check out resistance at 40.00. Seems to be working again, although as my clients know, this time, I chose to let it go as I don't feel overly eager to jump into short positions/protection at this time. The portfolio is already protected and I just don't feel that adding additional protection is needed right now. Again, this could change tomorrow.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
USO provides a perfect segway into forex. Check out the resistance in USO and line that up with support in the USD/CAD. Remember folks, I preach inter-market relationships. They are working - use them!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into the intraday trades, we had a BUFFALO BOUNCE yesterday morning in the EUR/USD:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now let's take a longer term look at the EUR/uSD. Look at the downtrend as it breaks new support. Either you are short or flat. Buying this thing is a no-no!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
That being said, I may be looking at some support levels soon if the equity markets hang in and take out there highs. This may cause a bounce in the EUR/USD. It could be a dead cat bounce, so I am very understanding of the overall price pressures and trend that is in place.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Enjoy unemployment (aka unenjoyment) tomorrow.
I will post 2 new links to IBFX webinars in the next few trading days.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
As I mentioned in late November, once ski season hits, my posts become a little more infrequent. You can still follow my intraday updates that compliments my daily market commentary at IBFX's Connect Site.
I have a lot of charts to post, but before that a quick trading psychology lesson and a quick fundamental update.
Trading Psychology: Less is more. The VIX is down and there is a lot of uncertainty to start the year, so location, location, location of your trades as well as quality of trades versus quantity. Secondly, the equity markets "seem" to want to go higher (see lower VIX) and that is causing overall "trading opportunities" to be less frequent. As a day trader, I am prepared to trade a few times per week versus a few times per day. This has been my motto since September and has served me well.
Fundamental Update: the USD data is getting better and Europe is "fixed" for now. The equity markets "seem" to want to head to towards 1300 in SPX, causing volatility to stay low. The Fed did warn us that economic growth will be below its mandate (spurring continued central bank coordinated intervention efforts) which no doublt is lending a bid to the markets when they sell off. How much will the economic growth slow from its current what I think is a rapid pace of improvement is the real question.
In a nutshell, I am always protecting my assets, but I have to say, I am not overly protective at this juncture and I am definitely not a buyer/bullish at these levels. I am perfectly fine sitting on the sidelines and missing whatever percentage we move up as I am already involved, I am just not adding new longs at this time. These opinions could change tomorrow, so read on every day for these fundamental opinion updates.
Technically, we have a lot going on. The SPX got above the 200 simple moving average and above hte first trendline. It now has a second trendline as resistance, the 1280ish level, then 1300, then 1350. On the downside, until we break a signifcant percentage, I am not worried about support levels as I am not overweight long. 1200 at a minimum is where I may start having interest for new longs.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
USO has been a favorite of mine to protect equities. Check out resistance at 40.00. Seems to be working again, although as my clients know, this time, I chose to let it go as I don't feel overly eager to jump into short positions/protection at this time. The portfolio is already protected and I just don't feel that adding additional protection is needed right now. Again, this could change tomorrow.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
USO provides a perfect segway into forex. Check out the resistance in USO and line that up with support in the USD/CAD. Remember folks, I preach inter-market relationships. They are working - use them!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Moving into the intraday trades, we had a BUFFALO BOUNCE yesterday morning in the EUR/USD:
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Now let's take a longer term look at the EUR/uSD. Look at the downtrend as it breaks new support. Either you are short or flat. Buying this thing is a no-no!
Past performance is not indicative of future results
That being said, I may be looking at some support levels soon if the equity markets hang in and take out there highs. This may cause a bounce in the EUR/USD. It could be a dead cat bounce, so I am very understanding of the overall price pressures and trend that is in place.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Enjoy unemployment (aka unenjoyment) tomorrow.
I will post 2 new links to IBFX webinars in the next few trading days.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.