SPX Flat For The Year

Good Morning,

As of now, the SPX is basically flat for the year. Think about everything that the markets digested this year and how we have hung in there. Will there be more to digest in 2012? Absolutely. Will the markets take it in stride and rally higher? All indications are pointing that way. But if not, are you in a position to profit from it? Even if you are an investor, you MUST be in a position to profit from sideways or bear markets as your returns may not keep pace with inflationary pressures.

No I am not talking about inflation that the Fed looks at. I am looking at potential cuts in salary, maybe even layoffs and add in utilty rate increases, health benefit increases (employer benefit decreases), the potential for food price increases, etc...

I hope the markets do keep rallying and if so, then I may lag the benchmark by just a bit, but I will sleep better at night knowing that when the markets do go sideways or down (and the reality is that they will at some point), the benchmark will suffer versus those employing protection strategies and income generating strategies.

Basically, understanding technical analysis and how the financial markets inter-relate is key. Forex can provide a great day trading vehicle, but did you know it can also act as a hedge against your portfolio? Options are such a dirty word, but as my clients know, they are an unbelievable vehicle for three things:

1. income generationg in trading accounts, IRA's and 401k's

2. portfolio protection

3. allows smaller accounts to participate in stock market movement in order to grow the account size

4. allows you to get paid to purchase stocks at your fair value levels

So I ask you: "what type of returns do you want to receive this year"? Maybe your New Year's resolution is to understand what drives the markets and how to profit from them. Again, regardless of your investing timeframe, the markets will provide volatility and volatility provides opportunity.

These markets are providing returns you can't get anywhere else (see real estate bonds, etc...) Find what markets suits you best given your individual situation and Seize it!

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool

Coach Brian

Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX at Resistance

Good Morning,
A quick post as I am finished trading for the day and wanted to get something out to my audience. Today's action is quite important as it provided intra-day opportunities and an opportunity to put on the monthly protection.
First off, here is a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE in the GBP/USD as we have small ranges, but significant retracements:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
I am trading very, very infrequently as it is late December and holiday markets. So far this week, there have been two trades that I would have entered. One today that I got and a BUFFALO BOUNCE on Tuesday that I missed due to being on an airplane. The point is, 4 days of trading and 2 trading opportunities. Do not overtrade. Ranges were small yesterday and small today. Unless equities roar one way or the other or some economic/international news causes us to really get moving, be careful in tight markets - your locations have to be perfect!

Next up, we have the SPY which rallied 5 points in 3 days and is at a trendline that has been providing resistance for 5+ months now. I think it is enough of a rally to hopefully get some time decay and let the Dec-Jan protection start to work:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
We have a lot of data coming out in a short timeframe over the next few weeks. I am not sure if it will matter or not, but as always, keep an eye on it.

Here is a link to an upcoming webinar I will be doing next week.
Here is the link to last week's year end/look ahead webinar.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX Well Below Support/Resistance Line

Good Morning,


Looks like the 1260 area in the SPX was too much to overcome given Europe's lengthy solvency process. Underlying this, please, please look at the Economic Calendar - the US economy has been improving, is improving and seems to be improving at an even faster rate! Retail sales were good, job claims are amazing, manufacturing data is up. So, maybe, just maybe we will get the Santa Claus rally.

But as you know, I am defensive and I am always looking to protect my investments using option strategies and the forex markets. I will be looking to get defensive for the Dec-Jan period, it is just a matter of when and what percentage. Are you making money off of your investments. Do you know how? If you don't, you should be learning these strategies - especially if your investments aren't keeping pace with inflationary pressures. Jupiter Peak Financial specializes in "making up performance" in bullish, bearish and sideways markets.

Technically, we have SPX resistance at 1260ish and we have support at 1150 and then 1100. There are intermediate support levels using moving averages and Fibonacci's.

Speaking of Fibonacci's, I love the DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE that occurs when equities trend, retrace and trend again. We had two of them, both on the EUR/USD:

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

THE FED and SPX Below Resistance Line...

Good Afternoon,
Please help in dancing and praying for snow and supplying the "storm that saves Christmas". We could use some fresh powder in Utah and for that matter across the globe!!
The markets reacted negativel to the Fedspeak that came out about an hour and a half ago. For the first time in a long time, the markets reacted how they should to a weaker than expected Federal Reserve statement.
Two things of importance:
1. "unemployment rate will decline only gradually toward levels that the Committee judges to be consistent with its dual mandate"
2. "extend the average maturity of its holdings"
So more stimulus and a very, very slow recovery in the US. The markets today were only about 650 points from there 2009-2011 bull run. The fed has been stimulating our economy (and other Central Banks stimulating their respective economies) for almost 3 full years. If the equity markets are going higher, it is because the "novelty" of stimulus hasn't warn off. I don't know if it has or not, but it seems to be losing its luster. The markets may go higher, but I sure am glad I know how to implement protection as I am more than willing to be "behind the eight ball" in a bull market and sleep very well at night if we go sideways or GASP...down. And when I say sideways and/'or GASP....down, I don't mean for a few days, I mean for years, more like a decade.
Technically, and not sure what "technically" means other than not trading in poor locations which basically is the difference between a profitable trader and a losing trader. Technically speaking, the 1250 line has been "congestion" and acting as support and resistance. We could be above it tomorrow, but seriously, the hurdles seem to be more real and even if we get above it, how high can we go? Looking at the charts, 1350 is a realistic multi-year high. To the downside, 1150 is a realistic "support" or maybe more like a "pause".
I am keeping my powder dry, trading small and infrequently (it is December) and constantly playing defense. I will look to buy certain sectors and stocks as we (if we) get technically and fundamentally oversold and I don't see "value" at current levels. Basically what I am saying is the range is big and I am patiently waiting for what I deem better locations.
Intraday, we did get one AUD/USD BUFFALO BOUNCE that failed and we basically got one in the GBP/USD and almost got one in the EUR/USD which looked really, really tasty!!
Inter-market relationships are in play: weak equities, strong USD. 3 days until options expiration and my money management is telling me to move stops to protect recent gains.
Looking forward to seeing you on the webinar tomorrow evening.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX Back Above Support/Resistance Line

Good Afternoon,
Does your head hurt? It was a very, very active day of trading in forex, but at the end of it, the SPX is back above our crucial congestion line of 1250. With the good news coming out of Europe and the continued improving US economy, I think the chances of us heading higher are very good.
Next week is relativel light on the data front and usually that is bullish for the markets as we slowly grind higher. In addition, it is options expiration week, so that is usually bullish for equities as well. If you are protecting options using equities, be wary as it is options expiration week.
Overall, even though it was active trading today intraday in forex, you have to be cautious because it is December. Investment banks are handing out bonuses and Christmas parties/vacations are starting and overall traders are very tired after trying to read the markets this year.
So trade carefully and in addition to December, we have the "rumorville trade" continuing, so you have to be double secret extra extra cautious.
Technically, we were sooo weak in commodities today and then, sooo strong. Look at the AUD/USD on a 2 day chart:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

We had a BUFFALO BOUNCE on the AUD/USD today and then another double top area late in the day. A DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE early In the EUR/USD and then a second DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE as the USD became too strong:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Double or triple bottom in the GBP/USD when the dollar was too strong and equities kept their bid:

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Nothing to post in the equities other than, look out above based on technicals and the possibility of a Santa Claus rally???!!
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX Back Below "Support"

Good Evening,
In a nutshell, the "bail/fail" trade never left and is more evident today then ever. Will Europe or won't Europe, that is the question. Behind the scenes, the US economy is firing on all cylinders, so if things go well across the pond, we could be off to the races and 1350 in SPX is next!
First off, let's look at today's forex trade, with three BUFFALO BOUNCES. The USD/CAD, AUD/USD and EUR/USD. Then the EUR/USD came back and provided some late day fireworks as it did its "bail" rally near the close of the day. It was clear to see that the USD was strongest against the USD/CAD and AUD/USD - so commodities were killed. Here is the AUD/USD followed by the USD/CAD:






In the equity markets, take a look at SPX - new highs are on "bail" away and heading back towards the 61.8 area is a real possibility with a "fail". I am looking for us to stay below 1250 for another 3 trading days - but it is anyone's guess!!



If you aren't using USO as a hedge, get on board. Check out SPX resistance at 1260-1265 and USO resistance at 40ish.



Whether it is shorting USO, buying puts or bear calls, all neutral to bearish strategies are working, BUT, as is the case with any strategy in any financial market, you MUST use technical analysis to create a trading plan and have defense (GO STEELERS) and a trading plan in place - see Dick Lebeau and the 2011 version of the Iron Curtain!
Link to next week's webinar

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian

SPX at Support/Resistance Line

Good Morning,
Fundamentally, we have very little news in the US this week. We await Europe on Thursday and Friday.

Technically, big moves in one direction followed by small retracements are followed by big moves in the original direction. Who is willing at these high levels? Buyers or sellers. If we think Europe is going to fail, we sell off. No one and I repeat no one is selling up here. We move up 5 to 8 percent and no one thinks we are overvalued. So, as it has been in the past, the risk is to the upside. 1250 in SPX is "support/resistance" but coordinated international events don't care about technicals, so use them with a grain of salt. More importantly, no matter what tool you use, trade appropriately for this type of "rumorville" trading.

Overall, this level doesn't excite me to take new longs or add new protection ahead of what seems to be a bullish event. If it turns out to be bearish, protection will help to buffer the downmove, but how much protection depends on your individual pessimistic/optimisic feelings and your level of conservatism or aggressiveness.

Intraday trading was fun today. Again, no trading opportunities last week due to international news every European session while I slept. Today we had moves and countermoves and saw two DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES. The first is the EUR and the second is the GBP. The GBP trade combined with resistance to make a nice entry.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

Past performance is not indicative of future results
Click this Link to sign up for the year in review/look ahead webinar.

Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

SPX and the 1250 Level

Good Morning,
I want to make sure that my readers know that I do post a little less frequently during the ski season. Deer Valley opened up with 17 runs on Saturday and the man made snow is cold, fast and holding an edge very well. Looks like cold temps are in the forecast for the next 5-10 days so snowmaking conditions will be perfect. If any of you are heading out here for the holidays, give me a heads up.
It has been about a week since I posted and obviously we know that equities are in the midst of another Central Bank driven rally. When will it stop? We won't know for at least another 5 trading days as Europe is set to meet again on Friday.
We know the US is growing (slowly) but growing and until that stops, I think that adds fuel to the fire. Technically, until we close above 1250 that is "resistance" and then after that it is the 1270 area, then 1300 and finally 1350. I still believe that 1350 is a multi-year high, but I could change my mind quickly if governments keep supporting the markets and economic data continues to improve. Overall, I am bullish around the pre-Thanksgiving 1150 level and bearish up here until we close higher (could be today).
USO has been a fun ETF to play defense with. It is heading back up to its resistance level of 40.00.
In the forex markets, all of the news has happened overnight during the European session and then basically flatlined during the USD session. The only day we had a major trend and then retracement was on Monda when equities gave back some of their gains. This week, I am looking for some more intraday excitement, but I am not holding my breath.
Wrapping up with trading psycyhology, the VIX isn't "really" in the 20's. It feels like it is in the 70's. How many times do you remember weekly moves of 5 to 10% in equity markets on a weekly basis. The only reason the ViX isn't truly showing the volatility out there is the markets are going up. This is very, very important as quantity is NOT as important as quality. Keep your trading size small because with this volatility you have the chance to have HUGE percentage winners and losers at a moments notice. We aren't trying to hit home runs, but they can happen and on the flipside, a counter-move to our thesis can happen at a moments notice as well.
Happy Trading and Be Environmentally Cool
Coach Brian
Forex trading is one of the riskiest forms of investment available in the financial markets and suitable for sophisticated individuals and institutions. The possibility exists that you could sustain a substantial loss of funds and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.