The Local's Take: Post-U of U Commentary (because no one showed up for soccer practice)

Hello U of U Students.

There will be a test to see who read this entry:

WHY I TEACH BLOG

Also, here is an updated "special evening commentary" wrapping up tonight's session:

WWW.FINANCEBANTER.COM/CATEGORY/FOREX

The Local's Take: Blog Posting Update

Please find posts at:

http://www.financebanter.com/category/forex

www.financebanter.com

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello,

I am now posting at http://www.financebanter.com/category/forex

Thanks,
Brian

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

You can now find my posts at:
FINANCE BANTER - FOREX

To bookmark the link: http://www.financebanter.com/category/forex

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

Today's post can be found at:

WWW.FINANCEBANTER.COM

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello,

Park City Trading/Investing Club meets tonight from 6-8 at Keller Williams on 224 and Sun Peak Drive

Click HERE for today's blog at www.financebanter.com

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

New Location for Today's Post

http://www.financebanter.com/article/the_locals_take_mid_day_commentary

The Local's Take: Late Day Commentary

New Location for today's post:

http://www.financebanter.com/article/the_locals_take_late_day_commentary

The Local's Take: Late Day Commentary

Unemployment Number (all times Eastern)

The Local's Take: Late Day Commentary

Hellllllllllooooooo!!

Regardless of what just happened today (my wrist, eyes and head HURT!), we have the all (in my estimation) important unemployment report.

I am going out on a limb that with 450k weekly unemployment claims, there is NOOOOO way that we hit the expected mark of 180k that analysts are calling for.

CHARTS:
It isn't worth posting charts as this is a throw away day. Yes, 100 or 200 points or even 300 is expected with the news coverage of "Gyros Gone Wild". Boy would I like to be in Mykanos right now!

The only way you could take advantage of the move was to have protection in place (see a 300% winner in QQQQ today!) or you were bidding down there and no one was as there was no reason for us to be down there.

If we get a REAL sell off due to economic news that makes sense. I would love to buy tomorrow afternoon if we have another 200-400 point sell off that gives certain strong sectors that are now lagging (financials and more importantly commodities) a nice 20% discount from their highs.

Yes, I will sell puts to get into stocks or just collect the premium.

So, come on big miss in the unemployment number tomorrow.

Forex - not even going to talk about it as it was too wild for words. The spreads were 15 pips wide and we had 2 and 3 penny moves. I am looking forward to the BADABING TRADE tomorrow.

I think I am going to finish off the patron and leftover Maxwell's pizza from last night!

Locals Tip: The BEST workout to get you in shape for spring/summer: (aside from backcountry skiing) is the Computrainer classes at Team 19. The Wednesday night "guys night" has been a blast and thanks to our leader, Wendy who had us doing intervals.

Go Pens! and sorry Detroit!

The Local's Take: Real Trade Update

Got them - AUD/USD and EUR/USD
DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES

Risked 1 to make 1 - high probability trades going with the trend up in the dollar, going against the short term trend down in the dollar

The Local's Take: Cinco De Mayo Update

Most importantly, have a margarita.

Locals tip: baja cantina at the base of Park City Mountain Resort

The Local's Take: Trade Update

Missed by a pip in multiple pairs - DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES everywhere as equities turn positive

The Local's Take: Trade Update

Nothing yet, but the GBP/USD is doing exactly what it did yesterday - taking back almost all of the morning move.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

Don't get your panties in a wad. We are only down 3% off our highs. Yes, certain sectors (commodities) are lagging, but we knew this already from our sector breakdown.

Many commodity stocks showed signs of failure weeks ago and once the top was set, they came off very hard.

Is it time to buy dips? I am not sure. If you have protection on, I don't think so as we still have unemployment coming up in 48 hours. The risk is always to the downside, so I would wait for another leg down before selling puts/buying conservatively.

When I say buying conservatively, I am not looking for new highs. More like a swing trade to profit quickly from an oversold situation.

Obviously the down move in equities and the upmove in the dollar happened, for the most part, overnight. Teargas and rioting in the streets of Greece happened well before we woke up and our stock market/options market opened up.

I don't trade forex overnight as I like to be up during daylight and fortunately, there is enough movement during the US equity session (for about 9 months there wasn't but it looks like it is going to change...keep your fingers crossed that volatility stays at or above our current levels!!)

We did get some DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES in certain cross pairs, but I wasn't willing to take it as I was waiting for the intraday (cough, cough) rally in equities to stall out a little bit higher then where it did.

Is a long term top in? 50/50 for me. But I will sell rallies at certain levels to protect the positions. It will take another 5-8% down in the sectors that are leading us to the downside to get me excited to buy.

No charts today as we are in the same exact place we closed yesterday (with a hanging tail). I will update them tomorrow as I will have a little more time to be in front of the markets.

I am off to the Utah Genius (yes, I just associated genius with me and this blog) to be presented with an award for top companies in Utah and there trademark work. This means that Locals Have More Fun has protected its various shirt designs and sayings and more importantly, sent lots of money to the government.

If anyone has questions on trademarking, I went to law school (Ray, Quinney, Nebeker) and learned the process well enough to be dangerous whereas Locals now protects its identity via management, not outsourcing.

Doug Fabrizio of NPR fame will be the keynote speaker and our favorite environmentalist, the GUV will be there as well.

Have a great day and remember, everyday is earth day. (Yes, that is me digging rainwater collection systems in the backyard)

The Local's Take: Trade Update

Good Afternoon,

Why did the GBP come off its lows so hard with equities still on their lows?

Regardless, it provided a great DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE.

That's it for today - have a great one!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

Forex Trade Update:

Buffalo Bounce on USD/CHF - stayed strong so noth much out of it. Certain pairs are reacting to this small bounce in the equities, some are staying on lows against the doolar:

EUR and CHF

The Local's Take: Trade Update

Good Morning,

One note that I forgot to make - if SPX closes below 1180, we won't see new highs for a while.

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Yesterday, I said we wouldn't finish on our highs and that today would be a red day. We finished 20 points off our intraday high yesterday and so far, today looks like we have a pretty good chance of finishing red.

We seem to be rangebound, with buyers coming in strong at certain levels and sellers are now equally strong at certain levels.

No trade updates to speak of yet as the big moves happened before the markets opened.

There was a BUFFALO BOUNCE in the GBP/USD, but I decided not to take it as it seemed a little early with the huge move in equities. It worked, but not going to worry about it as I have a feeling we may see some more before the next few hours are up.

I will update them as they happen.

Have a grey, cloudy, mud season day. Good to see all of this moisture.

Locals Tip: Your an idiot if you have your sprinklers on.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

OK - I am going to call the close: we will NOT finish on our highs. BUT, I am leaving myself an out. If we do, we will NOT finish green tomorrow (2 days in a row). I believe there are enough sellers to drive us sideways for a little in this current range in the SPX


Regarding the forex markets, I am confused: the markets are up, oil is flat to up, yet the dollar is strong against the CAD. I wasn't confused enough to not take advantage of a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE:

Let me explain a little more of the confusion. Again, equities up, GBP absolutely sideways to down, the EUR is getting "crushoolad" and the AUD and NZD are sideways.

Hence, another day with volatility down and tight trading ranges and "separation" in "OLD FAITHFUL" - equities up, dollar down.

I am sorry I didn't take pictures, but it was an "epic" (not really - I personally think the word is overused, so I throw it in sarcastically) day of touring Deer Valley and Park City. Parking at Empire Canyon lodge and skinning up Supreme. Then crossing over to McConkey's and down to Comstock. A few runs on the south facing aspect before heading back in the DMZ and into Lady Morgan.

3.5 hours of heart pounding work to ski 5 runs. Not bad. I think I ate 5 pounds of pasta to prepare and to refuel afterwards.

Off to get some vaccinations for the little one. Good to start the month off green.

Locals tip: will review Park City Follies tomorrow.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

As I mentioned, the line of death, holding for the weekend which gives me 3 days of time decay for all options sold.

Right to the chars. We will go with forex first as I just shut down my platform. A partial fill to end the week on a BUFFALO BOUNCE on the USD/CAD.

A nice way to finish the week - green every day. Let's hope next week provides the same intraday moves.

Next, a nice pattern on USO which has been trading in a nice range as commodities seem to be the most volatile in this very "unvolatile" equity market. 42 has been significant resistance.

The overall markets - as I said, 78.6% is the line of death and after 2 strong days, we were up a third (very similar to last Mon, Tue, Wed and then a selloff) but can't make it 4 days in a row at these elevated levels. Will we rally today? I don't think so but won't be shocked if we do!!!

Finally, for my good friend, we have AXP which has been moving. A breakout, selloff below the breakout line by about 3% (which probably exits a day and swing trader) and then a rally above.

This pattern basically sums up the markets - headfakes up and down, yet we end up in exactly the same place. I think individual stocks are harder than the overall markets. If you can find the ranges in the overall markets (SPY topping at 123) you are better off.

Play the ranges until we get a breakout to the upside or a sell rallies in very specific locations.

On another note - I will be teaching 2 upcoming classes at the U of U:
Intro to Personal Trading/Investing - covers stocks, options and forex
Fibonacci Course

Looking forward to my first backcountry ski tour of the year on Sunday. I figure it is part of my summer time training. By the way, if you want to get in shape for summer time, try the Computrainer classes at Team 19 in the Canyons Villages. If you compete and aren't ready, shame on you. If you focus on your ride, well done. I will be at the Wednesday night rides, which are almost sold out, so call if interested!

Have a great weekend and unemployment (unenjoyment) returns on Friday (along with both ISM numbers, claims and Bernanke)

The Local's Take: Late-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

We have had some great movement this week. Will it continue?

But first, I have to get this off my chest. When you wake up early in the morning, you usually hope it is only 2am or 3am and you have 3 to 4 more hours of sleep. Ever since having a kid, whenever I wake up and think it is the early morning hours, it is always closer to 6am or 7am, basically wake up time.

So, I pose the question, why since having a kid does 6am and 7am come much sooner than it did before having a kid. The nights just seem to fly by and before I know it, I am walking into the nursery, seeing his smiling face, kicking legs and changing diapers.

I am sure parents will say that it only gets nuttier!!

Back to the markets - employment is only 6 trading days away. Lots of earnings, GDP, and other releases in between. We have Europe in the news every day and rigs that are spilling oil. Oh yeah, and the claims number that sticks to 450k like glue. But the markets are bullish, almost up to new highs. Almost. Hence the charts on the overall markets:

SPX
DIA

IWM
QQQQ




So, the "line of death" at 78.6% hasn't been broken yet. I look for today's close as well as tomorrow's close to be very important. I would like to sell rallies but today seems stronger than it should be - hence a bull market I "guess". I still think if we hit 1212 again in the SPY, it is a nice risk to reward trade, although obviously if you don't take quick profits, it can be deadly!!
Probably one of these times, we will break more than 30-50 points.

If we sell off today, I think going bearish into the Friday "weekend trade" is the way to go. If nothing else, it gives you protection over the weekend.

I was upside down this morning on my short term trading and got away with a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE. Longs and shorts wouyld have worked!

The point is, we are getting moves and countermoves instead of just one move and if you missed it or traded it wrong, you were done for the day. These markets are a little more forgiving and allowing for "mistakes" but you still need to have:

• money management
• personal flow charts
  

One more trading day tomorrow. After such a busy week, I hope it continues, but no guarantees, so if a trade comes, take it. If not, go skiing!

Locals Tip: 17 inches in 48 hours at Snowbird and more on the way (snow through Sunday). Anyone up for a backcountry tour on Sunday? If not, may just hit Deer Valley's Silver Lake for a hike up Bald Mtn.

Stay safe out there and check out the Sick Day shirts from Locals Have More Fun

The Local's

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

The snow arrived and as did the wind. Playing soccer in the fieldhouse last evening with the PC men's team was quite eery. The rafters and vents were shaking and every once in a while, you would hear a low humming. It almost sounded like whales.

Well, the whales (bears) found a reason to pick up the trading volume yesterday. Here is a short term chart of the SPY. Notice the volume on the downdays. We need to close at or below 119.30 to stay below the neckline of the double top.

Most every sector is showing "chinks in the armor" as we have come off highs by significant percentages.

No, I am not a buyer at these levels and would look to sell rallies. Just like the forex markets allowed for this morning. Lots of DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES such as this one in the USD/CAD:

One trade, one winner. Now FOMC awaits. Will it be a dud, or will they change the language. We know they won't change rates, so look at the language.

Have a Mid February day during mud season and be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

We are NOT going down due to what you are watching on CNBC. We ARE going down due to the close of the European markets and the downgrade of Greece near the close.

Haven't we been through this before? Isn't Greece worth 2.7% of the EU GDP? Maybe it is a harbinger of things to come??

One chart for the day as portfolio protection is working and definitely not getting into new longs at any of these levels - for that to happen would need a much more sever break than a dinky 150 points.

By the way, we probably have a better chance of finishing green today then red.

Here is the Double Fall Line Trade on the EUR/USD

Local's Tip: Shitty Deals on CNBC as GS gets reamed.

Have a great day and my bet is we get a carry through to the downside tomorrow.

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

A really slow day (so far) ahead of:

• Bernanke tomorrow
• FOMC on Wendesday - look for any change in language
• Claims on Thursday
• GDP on Friday

Even though there aren't many intraday trading opportunities, there are a many longer term opportunities that are lining up.

We have a good amount of charts to look at that give us some interesting patterns using various technical indicators.

Let's start with the broad markets and SPY and the crucial 61.8%




Next, let's look at a financial stock - American Express - AXP. This is a great example of a breakout and a "second chance" look at the old breakout level. Will old resistance become new support? Regardless, it is a low risk, high reward location to go long.


Finally, our socially responsible stock play of the day - the water ETF, PHO (which happens to be a staple in Vietnamese cuisine).

Who thought investing in water could get you 100% returns in 13 months?

Overall, Forex is dead today. Even though the dollar is weak overnight, it seems like it has a little strength at these levels. If the market turns negative, we may see the dollar gain some strength, but too little, too late in the trading day to get too excited.

Get outside and get some "mental exercise" as it looks like cold weather is approaching the Wasatch!

Local Tip: Park City Follies at the Egyptian Theatre

Remember to be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

Not sure if the markets are trading today:) but I do know that they can get slower than this.
Yes, the VIX can head even lower and the summer doldrums for traders can take root.

So, if you say: "I can't believe how bad it is", just remember, it can get worse.

Good durables and home sales today keeps us in the green, although barely. Not much to do today - did get into a DOUBLE FALL LINE trade in the GPB/USD that didn't work out.

Oh well, the flow chart of money management caused me to trade small so, was able to get into another in the NZD/USD and ended green on the day.

Seems like new highs in all 4 broad indexes are only a trading day way.

Earnings next week along with Bernanke, FOMC, claims, and GDP. FOMC should be a dud, but watch claims to see if they keep an average closer to 500k (not good!)

It's the weekend - enjoy!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Looks like most of the action happened overnight in the forex markets and equity markets.

Futures opened down and that is where the market has stayed, bouncing near its lows of the day.

News events: claims stayed in the 450k range for the week, giving us very little chance at job creation in next month's unemployment report. If these start to head towards a 500k average, then a top may very well be in place in the equity markets.

Here is a look at SPX and Friday's selloff, the climb back early this week and then today's selloff. Seems like we have a pretty good chance of working a little lower, but the bulls are still in control.



Let's see if we finally do get a Friday selloff where traders don't want to hold longs over the weekend.

Have a great day!

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Right off the bat, a special thank you to all who showed up for the Park City Trading/Investing Club - and a special thank you to Ryan Sapp of Keller Williams, as for now, we have found a new home that fits us perfectly.

I will email the group with the details of the next meeting (mid May), but until then, here are the details on the new location.

Park on the west (non 224 side of the building) and come in the main entrance (the one with carpeting in front). Once you are inside the admin area, make an immediate left and an immediate right, then down the stairs. We will be in the "pit" otherwise known as the downstairs conference room.

We can plug in different laptops, so feel free to bring yours so we can look at exactly what you are looking at.

Main topics: we discussed "chinks in the armor" as some sectors have sold off quite nicely and still have a little more work to do to make new highs. Will this prevent the SPX from making significantly higher highs? We all agreed this may be a short term play as the markets still are bullish (technically and fundamentally) and there seems to be risk to the upside for traders who are caught short.

We also talked about this being the last (retail) push and another 3 to 5 percent is doable, but is it worth entering here if you aren't already in. Scaling out of long positions and adding quarterly protection through very cheap out of the money puts seemed to be the consensus in how to play these slowly rising markets.

There will be plenty of time and pportunities to be short/sell premium when volatility returns as the trend changes. Until then, sell only in very good locations which give you a quick out if you are wrong. Think risk to reward even if it is protection.

The FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) ETF's showed some possibilities of technical failures to the upside:




We also looked at a few other sectors, including the Financial - they too have a little more work to see new highs:

BUT, we did look at specific banks and saw that some were acting very strong/at new highs.

Again, the markets are bullish, so selling the upmove of Monday, Tuesday and this morning is more of a short term intraday chart, do not get bearish for months and months and months due to one down day!

******************
SEGWAY INTO THE TRADE OF THE DAY:

Bonus trade of the day: I combined a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE with the 3 handle rally in the SPX we spoke of last evening and was able to short the GBP as we all know the relationship between the dollar and falling stocks.

I am finished trading for the day as well above daily goal (I will trade with smaller size if we do get busier, IF....). A few speaking engagements and then off for a run and Kindermusic - don't even ask about it. And yes, I do watch Glee.

Remember, claims tomorrow (have been rising) and durables on Friday. Lots and lots of earnings next week and then the jobs report comes the week after. Should get some movement out of the news??!!.....

Have a great day and get outside as we have some colder temps coming over the next few days. I do remember someone saying today was supposed to be HUGE at the Bird - funny how someone tried to predict today's weather last Friday. Silly, just silly!

Remember to be Environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel - here is a link to our new Crushed It golf shirts - male and female styles!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Another lackadaisical day - to be expected as not much news (even though Bernanke was on the docket), as he is tomorrow and Wednesday.

All the hype from Friday dissipates quickly (unlike the volcanic ash across the pond). Not sure it is enough to derail the bull market and since we are within 0.00% of the recent highs, I do foresee us testing and breaking out. I don't think all sectors will go though and that is when we finally see chinks in the armor.

I am still putting on protection as there is a chance that we stall here (who would be surprised???) but it doesn't seem likely, unless 2Q earnings really fall apart.

Speaking of earnings, I think they are the critical component over the next few weeks, along with Bernanke, claims and unemployment in less than 3 weeks.

We had a Buffalo Bounce that didn't work in the GBP/USD as well as some Double Fall Line Trades that didn't pan out. Other than that, it was another day to sit with the finger on trigger, but not really push it.

The waiting game continues as we get closer to "sell in May and go away"?

Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

I give the stock market really good odds to finish green today.

Actually, I did something very unusual - I held overnight in my forex account and stayed long the dollar. Yes, it is against my rules, but the risk reward was there as commodities which have been so strong started to hold resistance and thus the currencies related to them (AUD/NZD/CAD) acted weak.

I shorted the CAD and AUD and stayed with it overnight, taking most off late last evening. Had I held it, well you know how it goes: "I caught a fish this big!!!).

In addition I caught one BUFFALO BOUNCE in the AUD/USD:
So we have some suspected crooks on Wall Street, who would of thunk. Regardless, I am not sure this is the end of the uptrend, but I did put on a lot more protection today using the highs in the broad indexes as exits to avoid assignments on any bear calls.

Check out a double top on USO:


Overall, the markets could/can sell off worse but there still seems to be the underlying bid, so protection that risks assignment has tight stops and longer term protection (put buying) has catastrophic upside stops in place.

Oh yeah and by the way, next week we have:

• Bernanke on Monday
• Claims on Thursday
• Durables on Friday

I have plans to wash the winter off of my car. Hopefully you have a more exciting weekend than that!

Local's Tip: Pato Banton at the Spur Bar and Grill Fri and Sat

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Jobless claims claim (shocker there) to about 24k more than expected and the markets is flat, flirting with going green.

With the markets strong, I guess it will take worse news than that or at least multiple weeks of climbing numbers to dampen the spirits of the bulls and bring shorts into the mix.

I will say that if we weren't in overbought territory, well then we are fast approaching it with 1220 in the SPX as a great place to load up on protection. Kind of like Braveheart, hold, hold, hold and then strike!

Until then, be careful not being too bearish. When (if) we ever break, there will be plenty of time to be short!

Trade updates coming soon (hopefully!)

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Not much to blog about today except warmer temps and warmer markets. Could be an afternoon run in the mix, not only on the trails but in the finanacial markets?

As CNBC said, if you don't believe the markets are strong, where have you been:

• a good start to the earning season
• retails sales are strong
• no inflation according to CPI (how much are you paying at the gas pump)
• SPX looking for a close above 1200 for first time since 2008

Markets are in tight ranges and volatility slumps a little lower and dollar loses strength again, giving commodities a nice push.

Watch claims tomorrow morning

Have a great day and be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Late-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

Now that ski season is officially over for me, it is time to get out on the trails - running and biking.
Already made it to Zion and planning the next camping trip (hopefully sooner than later).

It is snowing though and that kept me at the computer, looking for double fall line trades and buffalo bounces. Some worked, some didn't, so another grind of a day at the office. Typical of a bull market where the daily grind is like pulling teeth. Sometimes it becomes very frustrating.

As long as you properly size your positions and you use a trading plan (defined risk and reward), you live to fight another day.

The markets were down 50 today and are now up 23 - pretty big move percentage wise, but not helping our volatility friend - the VIX.

One fun trade that has had some decent movement is USO - check out the range. As long as stocks keep plugging higher, so will commodities, which weakens the dollar and thus, oil prices continue to rally.

That is pretty much it for the day. Other than that, for all of you naysayers, check out the Retail Sector ETF - RTH. Quite the run. Will it hold up entering earnings season? By the looks of Moab, Zion and the highway last weekend, I say it will. People are spending!

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Just returned from Zion N.P. (still cleaning out the car) - probably one of the most beautiful places on earth and it is only 5.5 hours from SLC. The town of Springdale on the SouthWest side of the park has lots of cool B & B's, motels and hotels such as the Desert Pearl Inn. Try the Bit and Spur for Sangria, Margaritas and Mexican food.

Finally, before heading out on your adventure - whether it be mountain biking Gooseberry Mesa or hiking the Subway, Narrows, Angel's Landing, etc... stop into Zion Outdoor and ask for directions. You can also be environmentally cool and purchase Locals Have More Fun gear.

***************

Now that the ski season is over at Deer Valley (and yes, we made it to a 100 inch base the last week of the season, finishing with 114 for the year), I will be taking more time to post about:

• the local's lifestyle
• the markets
• trade updates

We have a very, very busy week with:

• earnings starting to ramp up
• Bernanke on the calendar
• retail sales
• claims
• consumer sentiment

With the Dow at 11,000 and the $SPX at 1200.00, the big question is will it provide the psychological resistance that all the shorts are relying on. Seems like that would be too good to be true and that again, more risk lies to the upside, so why not run these psychological stops.

We are also getting closer to that all important 61.8% Fib in the broad markets.


Sticking with our somewhat regular socially responsible theme (and as you will see a great segway into the forex markets), let's take a look at First Solar - FSLR. With support at 100 and stocks up, demand up, oil up, commodities up, why not alternative energy?



On the forex side, it seems like bottoms have been put in on the GBP and EUR and they would like to travel higher given the possible double bottom pattern.




The dollar has also lost ground to the CAD as oil prices have pushed higher. The USD/CAD is now trading at parity. Due to the runup in commodities, the AUD and NZD have stayed strong to the dollar as well. Or I guess you can say, due to the AUD and NZD staying strong, commodities are staying strong. Who is leading who?

Have a great day and I will be sure to update you with any forex day trade updates - but right now, we are pretty rangebound, hence the long article!

The Local's Take: Whatever Time It Is Commentary

Good Evening?? Traders and Investors,

Yesterday was another blah day for equities, although we did get some retracement/double fall line trading action in the forex markets.

Today, another beachball in water day where the futures pointed to a lower open, we got it, then we rallied all day and closed higher. The forex markets retraced over 100% of their overnight moves and the dollar closed at its lows against all pairs.

An unsuccessful Buffalo Bounce trade ocurred in the GBP/USD.

Looks like 11,000 is next for the DOW - it is a matter of when, not if. 1200 is next for the SPX and pushing higher is very likely.

If you are shorting or protecting, be vigilant in setting tight stops. No point in giving up all your gains via your protection trades.

Bernanke tomorrow and claims on Thursday.

See you on the mountain the next two days and be back at you Friday.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello Traders and Investors,

Another "tortoise" trade day. That is the latest term that CNBC is using to describe the rally. I quote: "Can the tortoise" trade continue? I guess they are running out of terms to describe a "to the moon Alice" bull market that has now extended into its 13th month.

We saw one pullback of about 8% in the $SPX in January and then quickly made a new high and we continue to surge another 3% above that level of $1150.00.

The dollar continues to be weak against the CAD as oil is running with the "demand" trade. We have the EUR and GBP gaining some ground ever since the "Greece" thing quieted down. By the way, how much does Greece contribute to the EU GDP? About 2.7%. Now if this trickles to Spain, Portugal, etc... we have a problem. Until then, another drop in the bucket that the stock market says: can't stop me!!

So the psychological number of $11,000 in the DOW looms ahead and $1200 in the $SPX. As long as we keep climbing, trading opportunities are zero to none and all we can do is watch our portfolio go up.

If you don't have a portfolio, and you are a shorter term trader - enjoy the snow. I am looking forward to Wed and Thur on the mountain as it is supposedly going to snow for now a 6th straight day. We are close to 5 feet out of this storm total in the Park City area, so that means over 6 feet at the Bird and Alta.

I have a feeling we are getting closer to trading opportunities - Murphy's law correct. I will hopefully have more charts to post as we get back into some volatile movements, until then though, just keep watching the upward movement in most sectors. Retail, tech, commodities, consumer discretionary... and on and on and on.

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel and enjoy January in April for you mountain enthusiasts.

The Local's Take: Too Late in the Day Commentary

Good Evening Traders and Investors,

Due to a mixup, I wasn't needed on the mountain and decided to stay home and work with a few clients as well as GULP trade the markets.

The Forex markets are getting harder and harder to get a handle on as the dollar is acting very different to every major pair. The daily grind in low volatile markets, just got grindier... let me explain.

The "grind" is the trader term for getting in the trenches and busting out a living every day. It is the time when markets are slow, economic numbers aren't moving the markets and for the most part there is one move a day. If you are wrong, you finish down for the day. If you keep trading, you end up trading with yourself and the day gets worse. The GRIND refers to:

• patience
• discipline
• edge

With those 3 fundamentals in place, you look for one good trade and come out ahead or you have one loser, use money management and walk away with your head held high as you did the right thing, the trade just didn't work out. But you didn't expend energy, time and your capital trading in poor markets.

I am glad I had other things to do today, but when the markets sold off almost 100 points, it seems more and more likely that it will continue. Woops - beachball in water. I forgot. We finish up 70, AHEAD of unemployment.

The markets are bullish! Trends are in place, until they stop being a trend. I think I just made that up.

See you tomorrow for an exciting Friday with the jobs announcement. It is Friday - one good trade!

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and GO DUKE and BUTLER.
Could be the most disciplined coach/students/ball players ever to play in a final!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon Traders and Investors,

We had one nice move in the forex markets. When the stock market moved from up 40 to down 20, the dollar strengthened nicely (see relationship based trading!) and I was able to catch most of the move.

I thought the equity markets would continue south so I held on to a portion of it while I was on with my Midwest clients, but alas... the stock market rebounded (see beachball in water effect!) and I was taken out of the final part of the trade. Still hanging on to a short USD/CAD play and looking for a rise to the 1.0300 handle.

I will be back on Friday for unemployment (fingers crossed for downside surprise) as the next few days are hectic. Holiday dinner, friends from Pittsburgh, sister-in-law, and snow, snow, snow.

Could this be it? Could we get 2 feet to end the season? Deer Valley will be rocking as all hosts are on deck for a large corporate booking so I am sure the markets will do something more significant tomorrow and Thursday - just my luck!

Have fun and trade smart - remember your risk management and portfolio management. If you overtrade your size and don't find the right timing for your strategy/trading style, you are going to be in a world of trouble!

K-I-S-S! Keep it simple stupid and stay true to your trading plan!

Have a great couple days and Go DUKE and BUTLER
Oh yeah, remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

The weather was beautiful - blue bird days, warm temps, great NCAA games at the Delta Center and even some time for yardwork!

Double Capt and Coke's at Lumpy's kind of put a damper on any market reading/prep I was supposed to catch up on during Saturday evening. Then it continued as the Deer Valley mountain hosts got together for the annual photo shoot - thanks High West Distillery lemonade fizz and rye.

It is the final 2 weeks of the ski season, last chance for a tour with your favorite mountain host!

It was also a fairly calm (bullish) weekend so no reason for futures not to point to an upward open. We were up 50 points to open the day and have backed off since then. The DOW seems to have a little resistance at 10,900, but without being able to selloff much, there is still the strong underlying bid.

Let's take a look at the SPY chart - notice our highest close at 117.41. Other than that, we seem to selloff. Again, we are NOT selling off much though!!
As far as sectors go, commodities have been very strong - take a look at USO as it pushes to recent highs - can it fight through? Seems like a supply/demand thing - the higher the markets go, the higher the demand for oil/commodities, the higher these stocks go:

Our socially responsible stock for the day - First Solar - we have been tracking it all month and the story remains the same: strong market, strong demand, strong oil, strong alternative energy


As I mentioned, no relationships in the forex markets except by region: EUR and GBP a little weak to dollar. AUD, NZD and CAD (commodity based) very, very strong to dollar


Have a great week and keep your powder dry as we have Manufacturing numbers, claims and of course, unemployment.

P.S. GO DUKE!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Not much to report again - the EUR gained some strength against the dollar, but still very near recent lows.

The SPX is very near recent highs as it looks for 1200 and the Dow looks for 11,000 - what a calendar year it has been!!

**Not much has changed in the charts on the major indexes - more buyers than sellers.

**Not much has changed in the recent past in forex as the topsy turvy action continues - every currency has become its own entity and NOTHING seems to be running together. Makes for a difficult trade, but at least there are some moves/counter moves.

**The bond market got crushed, sending rates higher

So it is a pretty lackadaisical Friday with low volume, little econ data that moved the markets and overall tight ranges.

Until Monday it is and remember, we have a lot of economic data next week, including the all important jobs number on Friday.

Have a great weekend as there should be over a foot in the Cottonwoods! Get it while you can!

The Local's Take: Pre-Ski Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Claims are in-line and Bernanke is up next.

What will he say? Stay tuned.

Looks like a flat to modestly bullish start to the day and easily within reach of new highs in all indices.

Have a wonderful day and remember the sun screen!

The Lcoal's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good afternoon,

Well, forex was rocking today. Count them: 3 moves today. That is about 3 times the usual!!

We hit a bunch of double fall line trades today as the markets topped out, came off their highs and then resume to new highs.

The EUR and GBP both took a break in the middle of the day and the dollar strengthened slightly - it was a Buffalo Bounce/slash equity trade for a little while as well.

Again, not the cleanest trade as the dollar is performing differently to cross pairs depending on the underlying fundamental for each specific cross pair.

It takes:

• a trading plan
• money management
• patience to wait for the opportunity
  
• and then discipline to implement the plan

With these steps and action plan in place, it provides the tools to be a successful trader/investor. Without these, I doubt that luck will be profitable over the long term.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Nothing wrong with a little beach time during Spring Break. No, this time I don't mean the Beach at Deer Valley, which I am sure was rocking.

I mean the real beach - Jacksonville Beach, specifically the TPC Sawgrass Marriott. Great service at the hotel and beautiful surroundings. They were readying the course for the upcoming early May tournament. After a rough, cold, dry, windy winter, they have lots of prep work to do. The course is quite brown, so in a few weeks, the gallery may be yelling: "Get on the brown!!"

Forty eight hours and very little sleep. NCAA games, standing up in a wedding, meeting new friends and working out in heat and humidity.

Now it is time to get back to work and looks like the markets are going to try to add a little volatility to the mix. The Fed seems to be in the news daily, the health care bill is likely to pass (in some for) and we have now come off from our highs in the SPY again.

Taking a look at SPY, the old resistance level is still support. A close significantly below 115 would void out that support level. We shall see...

The forex markets are pretty slow today - not much to affect them other than the GBP and the EUR are near recent lows against the dollar.

The socially responsible trade of the month, First Solar (FSLR) trade is working out nicely. We were long at 100 and shorted at the trend line at 115.00

Could be a quick end to trading today if we stay in this range. Remember, we were set to open down 6 points in the SPX, but opened flat. The bid is still in tact.

If the markets are mellow, that means a mellow workout for me - yoga to stretch out after the long weekend of flying back and forth across the country. If you haven't seen it, the movie pick of the week is The Blindside. A good way to kill time on the Delta red eye.

Have a great start to the week and if necessary, I will update you on forex trading opportunities, but otherwise, see you tomorrow morning.

Be Environmentally Cool

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello Traders and Investors,

Sixty degrees, St Pat's Day, Spring Break, the Beach at Deer Valley's Silver Lake Lodge - priceless!

The markets are again, flat but we did talk about some good trading opportunities in the monthly Park City Trading/Investing Club - see Monday and Tuesday's blog about the breakout on the SPY chart.

Here are a few forex trades of the day:

Double Fall Line Trade on NZD



Buffalo Bounce on EUR



From there, the relationships broke down, with the CHF showing extreme strength to the dollar. Another, ho-hum day in the equity "everything is great" bull market.

I rolled out of March into April - the grind up was slow, but definitely had some pain associated with it! Oh well, commodities, retailers and the like are at or near new highs.

I am off to Jacksonville for a wedding, sun, beach, a first round NCAA game and some gator tails at Sneakers!

Back at you on Monday.
Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Well, surprise, surprise, we rallied into the close yesterday. Check out the rebound in the SPY - we continue to close above the key level of 115. Today, we are up as well, so between the TREND, options expiration week and the FOMC, it seems likely that we will push higher.



The term "extended" and dissenters may give the markets to reverse, but is there enough reason for the Fed to change their stance. Free money right? Everything is fine right?

One point I would like to get across is inflation. There isn't any if you look at the strength of the US dollar compared to other currencies when international fear, tension, downturns occur. If you think the Greenback is weak, look at other currencies during worrisome times.

If there isn't demand due to stagnant economy, then we don't need as many natural resources, thus price declines. We can only have inflation in a runaway economy and I don't see another runaway economy to the upside after last year's upmove. We can still go up, but not in the amount we did in 2009 and probably at a slower pace.

What does that mean? Covered calls of course - slow grind upwards is the perfect setting for selling time decay. And if the markets break? You have protection in place and can add more by doubling down, buying puts, etc...

In the forex markets, a Buffalo Bounce showed up after a 200 Pip move. The USD/CHF also had one a little earlier in the day.


Now that I am playing with house money for the day, going to be very cautious during FOMC as you never know, it could be a whopper!!! In big ranges, it doesn't take much size to have a very strong day! If nothing happens, it is outside to play as:

Park City is hitting 50 degrees today. Salt Lake will be in the 60's. Get out for a road bike ride on the roads in the Preserve - just be careful in the corners as rocks are present. Take is S-L-O-W as the workout is in the uphills!

Remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Market Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Sorry for the late post, but the markets actually moved more than 10 points in one direction this morning.

I have a few charts and even a trade to post. I skipped out on heading to the Cottonwoods in order to trade. A mountain host tried to drag me there, but I had a feeling Monday would be a little selloff. Plus the snow can't be that much better over there.

The days are warm and long and the sun really destroys the snow quickly. Nothing wrong with the manicured groomers at Deer Valley though.

Let me digress, before the charts - I love this time of year. St. Patrick's Day (a Chicago tradition!), warmer temps, and March Madness. If any of you are looking for a pool, check out Fisch Madness as it is run very, very well with lots of side games available. You must have a referral, so drop my name if you are interested. I am off to Jacksonville this weekend, hope to catch the Dukies and then back home for the regionals in SLC at the Delta Center - sorry, it fits much better. If Pitt can make it to the sweet 16, you may see yours truly sitting courtside.

OK, back to the markets. I posted this week's calendar on last Monday's poste - D'oh! So not much to say, except, wait a minute, can you hear it....FOMC! Bernanke testifies on Wednesday and unemployment claims on Thursday. Friday is triple witching. BIG week!

To the charts and first up, the SPY:

The close is very important - if we close below 115.00, could the old resistance/new support level now be new resistance? It will be interesting to see what we do at this level. Also, we have been trading UP going into the previous few FOMC meetings - seems like the markets are daring the FOMC not to say extended. If we trade down today and tomorrow into the afternoon report, I don't know if we recover. I don't expect much from the Fed, but you never know, so stay tuned!

The second chart of the day is a day-trade - the EUR/USD and a Buffalo Bounce:

As far as my SRI play, I am still looking at First Solar (FSLR) and thinking it is around a downward sloping trendline, maybe time to take off our bullish play and implement a little coverage/insurance:




Remember to Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and GO P-I-T-T!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Well, we officially have a higher close in the SPY as of yesterday, so the higher high, higher low scenario continues. What does that mean? An uptrend, of course!!!

BUT, true chartists will be looking at the close in the SPY over the next few sessions. What happens if we barely violate the old high and then close below that level? The adage of old resistance becoming new support wouldn't hold.

Let's take a look at the chart:
Next, we have our trend following trade. SPY up, oil demand up, oil prices up, therefore, alternative energy stocks up. Remember in the beginning of March when we sold the 100 AND 95 strik naked PUTS on First Solar - FSLR. Well here is how the stock has performed in the past 2 weeks:

To wrap up the week, we had better than expected retail sales, but does news matter? It seems the stock market goes up to sideways no matter what. What will get it to go higher? What will get it to turn around and head lower?

Forex market update: D-E-A-D, A-G-A-I-N-!-! Keeping the powder dry for next week, or the next, or the next...

Did I get out for a run yesterday? No. But I did get 30 minutes of yoga in - keeping the back and hamstrings loose as I skied hard on a mountain tour Wednesday afternoon and looks like we may get a little snow for tomorrow's day on the mountain. Deer Valley should be nice over the next few days as crowds will be solid, but spread out ove 21 lifts and amazing, wide boulevards to ski the soft corduroy.

Today, I will get out for a run before heading off for Local's meetings (final Tucson, AZ prep) and clients in the afternoon.

Have a fantastic weekend and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun and attending the final evening of the Wild and Scenic Film Festival at TMI.

The Local's Take: Y-A-W-N: Mid-Day Update

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

B-O-R-I-N-G Part II.

Investors say yay! Stocks are staying near highs and your dividends are being reinvested - more buyers than sellers should create upward pressure and if we break 1150 on SPX, look out above!

Traders say, boring!! The Vix in the teens means no volatility, meaning not many trading opportunities. One a day, if that. So you better be right and take small losses if wrong because you don't get a second chance to make the losing trade back.

Two charts for you:

SPX - a 6 month chart

VIX - our "fear" gauge on a yearly chart

As they mentioned on Fast Money, it is SUPER cheap to buy protection on your portfolio with options either on stocks or ETF's or even the indexes themselves.

FOREX - I am not even going to mention the forex markets!! D-E-A-D on an intraday trading horizon during the US equity session.

Have a great day - I am off for a 5 miler in the Hidden Cove area. Great views of the southern exposed Jeremy Ranch area - mountain biking can't be far away with these temps. Or will we get another April storm when most of us are ready for spring???

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and even cooler by attending the Wild and Scenic Film Festival over the next 2 nights.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

B-O-R-I-N-G

That sums up the markets today - nothing going on in forex or equities. BUT, since there are no sellers in the market, it seems like the underlying bid continues and the upside risk is there if you are short. More buyers than sellers equal upmarkets.

Thanks to all of the U of U students and their feedback. Next semester I will be running the same Intro class, but I will be asking for an extra 1.5 hours so we can get into more examples and spend more time on technical analysis.

I will also be running a breakout session on Fibonacci Retracements - should be an exciting look at charts and a specific indicator.

Looking forward to heading to the mountain tomorrow as 8-14" is expected.

I will be sending a confirmation email out to all PC TIC members about next Tuesday's meeting.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool

The Local's Take: Trade Update

We got our Buffalo Bounce in the GBP/USD - took profits a little early, but a winner on primarily a rangebound day is good enough for me - shutting down the platform.

That's why forex has been nice - the equities have been languishing unless you are buying dips, but there is enough news around the world affecting the dollar that forex is providing almost daily opportunities

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning Traders and Investors,

Nothing exciting over the weekend, so status quo in the markets - the strong bid persists and futures look to open flat to up.

Let's take a quick look at our socially responsible stock play - First Solar (FSLR):
I mentioned selling naked puts or bull put spreads when it hit support at 100 a few weeks ago.
Since then, SPY has rallied, thus demand for oil has helped keep prices above 80/barrle and thus, the "relationship" with energy prices and alternative energy stayed in tact. FSLR has rallied from 100 to 108, an 8% gain, throw in 10 days of time decay and I am moving my stop up to break even/lock in profits at the 100 level. The goal is to make through another 5 trading days and get to the weekend for 2 more days of time decay and a profit should be ensured.

The put I sold was valued about $3.5 and is now trading for $1.15, with a 1:1 risk to reward, that is almost a 66% gain.




I am going to create a "collar" by putting on a bear call on USO as prices have gone through the roof and premiums are pretty healthy with 2 weeks to go until March expiration.


Even without a stop, you would be risking 3 to make 1. Not bad for a credit spread, but I would probably risk 2 to make 1 or even less as I don't want to just throw away gains made on the FSLR trade. Below is the chart, a huge rally over the past few weeks. I am looking for it to just stall at these levels - but being short oil is admittedly risky given any rise in international tensions.



Forex seems pretty sideways for now, but we know that can change in a hurry as the leverage allows for a small move to create an entry. I will update any trade opportunities with a quick sentence or two.

A quick note on trading psychology - trading is not gambling. But if you would like to participate in the best homegrown March Madness pool, please send me an email - you need a referral to join.

Speaking of March - there isn't a better time than March to ski. Long sun exposure, warm temps, soft snow on top of a great base. You can ski a few hours in the morning and then get a run in during the afternoon, or a skate ski, or if you are really brave, a road ride.

You can top it off with some homegrown rye at the High West Distillery on Park Ave - comfy decor, great food, fantastic drinks.

Have a great day and Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel