The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

As I mentioned, the line of death, holding for the weekend which gives me 3 days of time decay for all options sold.

Right to the chars. We will go with forex first as I just shut down my platform. A partial fill to end the week on a BUFFALO BOUNCE on the USD/CAD.

A nice way to finish the week - green every day. Let's hope next week provides the same intraday moves.

Next, a nice pattern on USO which has been trading in a nice range as commodities seem to be the most volatile in this very "unvolatile" equity market. 42 has been significant resistance.

The overall markets - as I said, 78.6% is the line of death and after 2 strong days, we were up a third (very similar to last Mon, Tue, Wed and then a selloff) but can't make it 4 days in a row at these elevated levels. Will we rally today? I don't think so but won't be shocked if we do!!!

Finally, for my good friend, we have AXP which has been moving. A breakout, selloff below the breakout line by about 3% (which probably exits a day and swing trader) and then a rally above.

This pattern basically sums up the markets - headfakes up and down, yet we end up in exactly the same place. I think individual stocks are harder than the overall markets. If you can find the ranges in the overall markets (SPY topping at 123) you are better off.

Play the ranges until we get a breakout to the upside or a sell rallies in very specific locations.

On another note - I will be teaching 2 upcoming classes at the U of U:
Intro to Personal Trading/Investing - covers stocks, options and forex
Fibonacci Course

Looking forward to my first backcountry ski tour of the year on Sunday. I figure it is part of my summer time training. By the way, if you want to get in shape for summer time, try the Computrainer classes at Team 19 in the Canyons Villages. If you compete and aren't ready, shame on you. If you focus on your ride, well done. I will be at the Wednesday night rides, which are almost sold out, so call if interested!

Have a great weekend and unemployment (unenjoyment) returns on Friday (along with both ISM numbers, claims and Bernanke)

The Local's Take: Late-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

We have had some great movement this week. Will it continue?

But first, I have to get this off my chest. When you wake up early in the morning, you usually hope it is only 2am or 3am and you have 3 to 4 more hours of sleep. Ever since having a kid, whenever I wake up and think it is the early morning hours, it is always closer to 6am or 7am, basically wake up time.

So, I pose the question, why since having a kid does 6am and 7am come much sooner than it did before having a kid. The nights just seem to fly by and before I know it, I am walking into the nursery, seeing his smiling face, kicking legs and changing diapers.

I am sure parents will say that it only gets nuttier!!

Back to the markets - employment is only 6 trading days away. Lots of earnings, GDP, and other releases in between. We have Europe in the news every day and rigs that are spilling oil. Oh yeah, and the claims number that sticks to 450k like glue. But the markets are bullish, almost up to new highs. Almost. Hence the charts on the overall markets:

SPX
DIA

IWM
QQQQ




So, the "line of death" at 78.6% hasn't been broken yet. I look for today's close as well as tomorrow's close to be very important. I would like to sell rallies but today seems stronger than it should be - hence a bull market I "guess". I still think if we hit 1212 again in the SPY, it is a nice risk to reward trade, although obviously if you don't take quick profits, it can be deadly!!
Probably one of these times, we will break more than 30-50 points.

If we sell off today, I think going bearish into the Friday "weekend trade" is the way to go. If nothing else, it gives you protection over the weekend.

I was upside down this morning on my short term trading and got away with a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE. Longs and shorts wouyld have worked!

The point is, we are getting moves and countermoves instead of just one move and if you missed it or traded it wrong, you were done for the day. These markets are a little more forgiving and allowing for "mistakes" but you still need to have:

• money management
• personal flow charts
  

One more trading day tomorrow. After such a busy week, I hope it continues, but no guarantees, so if a trade comes, take it. If not, go skiing!

Locals Tip: 17 inches in 48 hours at Snowbird and more on the way (snow through Sunday). Anyone up for a backcountry tour on Sunday? If not, may just hit Deer Valley's Silver Lake for a hike up Bald Mtn.

Stay safe out there and check out the Sick Day shirts from Locals Have More Fun

The Local's

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

The snow arrived and as did the wind. Playing soccer in the fieldhouse last evening with the PC men's team was quite eery. The rafters and vents were shaking and every once in a while, you would hear a low humming. It almost sounded like whales.

Well, the whales (bears) found a reason to pick up the trading volume yesterday. Here is a short term chart of the SPY. Notice the volume on the downdays. We need to close at or below 119.30 to stay below the neckline of the double top.

Most every sector is showing "chinks in the armor" as we have come off highs by significant percentages.

No, I am not a buyer at these levels and would look to sell rallies. Just like the forex markets allowed for this morning. Lots of DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADES such as this one in the USD/CAD:

One trade, one winner. Now FOMC awaits. Will it be a dud, or will they change the language. We know they won't change rates, so look at the language.

Have a Mid February day during mud season and be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

We are NOT going down due to what you are watching on CNBC. We ARE going down due to the close of the European markets and the downgrade of Greece near the close.

Haven't we been through this before? Isn't Greece worth 2.7% of the EU GDP? Maybe it is a harbinger of things to come??

One chart for the day as portfolio protection is working and definitely not getting into new longs at any of these levels - for that to happen would need a much more sever break than a dinky 150 points.

By the way, we probably have a better chance of finishing green today then red.

Here is the Double Fall Line Trade on the EUR/USD

Local's Tip: Shitty Deals on CNBC as GS gets reamed.

Have a great day and my bet is we get a carry through to the downside tomorrow.

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

A really slow day (so far) ahead of:

• Bernanke tomorrow
• FOMC on Wendesday - look for any change in language
• Claims on Thursday
• GDP on Friday

Even though there aren't many intraday trading opportunities, there are a many longer term opportunities that are lining up.

We have a good amount of charts to look at that give us some interesting patterns using various technical indicators.

Let's start with the broad markets and SPY and the crucial 61.8%




Next, let's look at a financial stock - American Express - AXP. This is a great example of a breakout and a "second chance" look at the old breakout level. Will old resistance become new support? Regardless, it is a low risk, high reward location to go long.


Finally, our socially responsible stock play of the day - the water ETF, PHO (which happens to be a staple in Vietnamese cuisine).

Who thought investing in water could get you 100% returns in 13 months?

Overall, Forex is dead today. Even though the dollar is weak overnight, it seems like it has a little strength at these levels. If the market turns negative, we may see the dollar gain some strength, but too little, too late in the trading day to get too excited.

Get outside and get some "mental exercise" as it looks like cold weather is approaching the Wasatch!

Local Tip: Park City Follies at the Egyptian Theatre

Remember to be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Morning,

Not sure if the markets are trading today:) but I do know that they can get slower than this.
Yes, the VIX can head even lower and the summer doldrums for traders can take root.

So, if you say: "I can't believe how bad it is", just remember, it can get worse.

Good durables and home sales today keeps us in the green, although barely. Not much to do today - did get into a DOUBLE FALL LINE trade in the GPB/USD that didn't work out.

Oh well, the flow chart of money management caused me to trade small so, was able to get into another in the NZD/USD and ended green on the day.

Seems like new highs in all 4 broad indexes are only a trading day way.

Earnings next week along with Bernanke, FOMC, claims, and GDP. FOMC should be a dud, but watch claims to see if they keep an average closer to 500k (not good!)

It's the weekend - enjoy!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Looks like most of the action happened overnight in the forex markets and equity markets.

Futures opened down and that is where the market has stayed, bouncing near its lows of the day.

News events: claims stayed in the 450k range for the week, giving us very little chance at job creation in next month's unemployment report. If these start to head towards a 500k average, then a top may very well be in place in the equity markets.

Here is a look at SPX and Friday's selloff, the climb back early this week and then today's selloff. Seems like we have a pretty good chance of working a little lower, but the bulls are still in control.



Let's see if we finally do get a Friday selloff where traders don't want to hold longs over the weekend.

Have a great day!

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Right off the bat, a special thank you to all who showed up for the Park City Trading/Investing Club - and a special thank you to Ryan Sapp of Keller Williams, as for now, we have found a new home that fits us perfectly.

I will email the group with the details of the next meeting (mid May), but until then, here are the details on the new location.

Park on the west (non 224 side of the building) and come in the main entrance (the one with carpeting in front). Once you are inside the admin area, make an immediate left and an immediate right, then down the stairs. We will be in the "pit" otherwise known as the downstairs conference room.

We can plug in different laptops, so feel free to bring yours so we can look at exactly what you are looking at.

Main topics: we discussed "chinks in the armor" as some sectors have sold off quite nicely and still have a little more work to do to make new highs. Will this prevent the SPX from making significantly higher highs? We all agreed this may be a short term play as the markets still are bullish (technically and fundamentally) and there seems to be risk to the upside for traders who are caught short.

We also talked about this being the last (retail) push and another 3 to 5 percent is doable, but is it worth entering here if you aren't already in. Scaling out of long positions and adding quarterly protection through very cheap out of the money puts seemed to be the consensus in how to play these slowly rising markets.

There will be plenty of time and pportunities to be short/sell premium when volatility returns as the trend changes. Until then, sell only in very good locations which give you a quick out if you are wrong. Think risk to reward even if it is protection.

The FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) ETF's showed some possibilities of technical failures to the upside:




We also looked at a few other sectors, including the Financial - they too have a little more work to see new highs:

BUT, we did look at specific banks and saw that some were acting very strong/at new highs.

Again, the markets are bullish, so selling the upmove of Monday, Tuesday and this morning is more of a short term intraday chart, do not get bearish for months and months and months due to one down day!

******************
SEGWAY INTO THE TRADE OF THE DAY:

Bonus trade of the day: I combined a DOUBLE FALL LINE TRADE with the 3 handle rally in the SPX we spoke of last evening and was able to short the GBP as we all know the relationship between the dollar and falling stocks.

I am finished trading for the day as well above daily goal (I will trade with smaller size if we do get busier, IF....). A few speaking engagements and then off for a run and Kindermusic - don't even ask about it. And yes, I do watch Glee.

Remember, claims tomorrow (have been rising) and durables on Friday. Lots and lots of earnings next week and then the jobs report comes the week after. Should get some movement out of the news??!!.....

Have a great day and get outside as we have some colder temps coming over the next few days. I do remember someone saying today was supposed to be HUGE at the Bird - funny how someone tried to predict today's weather last Friday. Silly, just silly!

Remember to be Environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel - here is a link to our new Crushed It golf shirts - male and female styles!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Another lackadaisical day - to be expected as not much news (even though Bernanke was on the docket), as he is tomorrow and Wednesday.

All the hype from Friday dissipates quickly (unlike the volcanic ash across the pond). Not sure it is enough to derail the bull market and since we are within 0.00% of the recent highs, I do foresee us testing and breaking out. I don't think all sectors will go though and that is when we finally see chinks in the armor.

I am still putting on protection as there is a chance that we stall here (who would be surprised???) but it doesn't seem likely, unless 2Q earnings really fall apart.

Speaking of earnings, I think they are the critical component over the next few weeks, along with Bernanke, claims and unemployment in less than 3 weeks.

We had a Buffalo Bounce that didn't work in the GBP/USD as well as some Double Fall Line Trades that didn't pan out. Other than that, it was another day to sit with the finger on trigger, but not really push it.

The waiting game continues as we get closer to "sell in May and go away"?

Have a great day and enjoy the sunshine!!

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

I give the stock market really good odds to finish green today.

Actually, I did something very unusual - I held overnight in my forex account and stayed long the dollar. Yes, it is against my rules, but the risk reward was there as commodities which have been so strong started to hold resistance and thus the currencies related to them (AUD/NZD/CAD) acted weak.

I shorted the CAD and AUD and stayed with it overnight, taking most off late last evening. Had I held it, well you know how it goes: "I caught a fish this big!!!).

In addition I caught one BUFFALO BOUNCE in the AUD/USD:
So we have some suspected crooks on Wall Street, who would of thunk. Regardless, I am not sure this is the end of the uptrend, but I did put on a lot more protection today using the highs in the broad indexes as exits to avoid assignments on any bear calls.

Check out a double top on USO:


Overall, the markets could/can sell off worse but there still seems to be the underlying bid, so protection that risks assignment has tight stops and longer term protection (put buying) has catastrophic upside stops in place.

Oh yeah and by the way, next week we have:

• Bernanke on Monday
• Claims on Thursday
• Durables on Friday

I have plans to wash the winter off of my car. Hopefully you have a more exciting weekend than that!

Local's Tip: Pato Banton at the Spur Bar and Grill Fri and Sat

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Jobless claims claim (shocker there) to about 24k more than expected and the markets is flat, flirting with going green.

With the markets strong, I guess it will take worse news than that or at least multiple weeks of climbing numbers to dampen the spirits of the bulls and bring shorts into the mix.

I will say that if we weren't in overbought territory, well then we are fast approaching it with 1220 in the SPX as a great place to load up on protection. Kind of like Braveheart, hold, hold, hold and then strike!

Until then, be careful not being too bearish. When (if) we ever break, there will be plenty of time to be short!

Trade updates coming soon (hopefully!)

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Good Afternoon,

Not much to blog about today except warmer temps and warmer markets. Could be an afternoon run in the mix, not only on the trails but in the finanacial markets?

As CNBC said, if you don't believe the markets are strong, where have you been:

• a good start to the earning season
• retails sales are strong
• no inflation according to CPI (how much are you paying at the gas pump)
• SPX looking for a close above 1200 for first time since 2008

Markets are in tight ranges and volatility slumps a little lower and dollar loses strength again, giving commodities a nice push.

Watch claims tomorrow morning

Have a great day and be environmentally cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Late-Day Commentary

Good afternoon,

Now that ski season is officially over for me, it is time to get out on the trails - running and biking.
Already made it to Zion and planning the next camping trip (hopefully sooner than later).

It is snowing though and that kept me at the computer, looking for double fall line trades and buffalo bounces. Some worked, some didn't, so another grind of a day at the office. Typical of a bull market where the daily grind is like pulling teeth. Sometimes it becomes very frustrating.

As long as you properly size your positions and you use a trading plan (defined risk and reward), you live to fight another day.

The markets were down 50 today and are now up 23 - pretty big move percentage wise, but not helping our volatility friend - the VIX.

One fun trade that has had some decent movement is USO - check out the range. As long as stocks keep plugging higher, so will commodities, which weakens the dollar and thus, oil prices continue to rally.

That is pretty much it for the day. Other than that, for all of you naysayers, check out the Retail Sector ETF - RTH. Quite the run. Will it hold up entering earnings season? By the looks of Moab, Zion and the highway last weekend, I say it will. People are spending!

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel

The Local's Take: Morning Commentary

Good Morning,

Just returned from Zion N.P. (still cleaning out the car) - probably one of the most beautiful places on earth and it is only 5.5 hours from SLC. The town of Springdale on the SouthWest side of the park has lots of cool B & B's, motels and hotels such as the Desert Pearl Inn. Try the Bit and Spur for Sangria, Margaritas and Mexican food.

Finally, before heading out on your adventure - whether it be mountain biking Gooseberry Mesa or hiking the Subway, Narrows, Angel's Landing, etc... stop into Zion Outdoor and ask for directions. You can also be environmentally cool and purchase Locals Have More Fun gear.

***************

Now that the ski season is over at Deer Valley (and yes, we made it to a 100 inch base the last week of the season, finishing with 114 for the year), I will be taking more time to post about:

• the local's lifestyle
• the markets
• trade updates

We have a very, very busy week with:

• earnings starting to ramp up
• Bernanke on the calendar
• retail sales
• claims
• consumer sentiment

With the Dow at 11,000 and the $SPX at 1200.00, the big question is will it provide the psychological resistance that all the shorts are relying on. Seems like that would be too good to be true and that again, more risk lies to the upside, so why not run these psychological stops.

We are also getting closer to that all important 61.8% Fib in the broad markets.


Sticking with our somewhat regular socially responsible theme (and as you will see a great segway into the forex markets), let's take a look at First Solar - FSLR. With support at 100 and stocks up, demand up, oil up, commodities up, why not alternative energy?



On the forex side, it seems like bottoms have been put in on the GBP and EUR and they would like to travel higher given the possible double bottom pattern.




The dollar has also lost ground to the CAD as oil prices have pushed higher. The USD/CAD is now trading at parity. Due to the runup in commodities, the AUD and NZD have stayed strong to the dollar as well. Or I guess you can say, due to the AUD and NZD staying strong, commodities are staying strong. Who is leading who?

Have a great day and I will be sure to update you with any forex day trade updates - but right now, we are pretty rangebound, hence the long article!

The Local's Take: Whatever Time It Is Commentary

Good Evening?? Traders and Investors,

Yesterday was another blah day for equities, although we did get some retracement/double fall line trading action in the forex markets.

Today, another beachball in water day where the futures pointed to a lower open, we got it, then we rallied all day and closed higher. The forex markets retraced over 100% of their overnight moves and the dollar closed at its lows against all pairs.

An unsuccessful Buffalo Bounce trade ocurred in the GBP/USD.

Looks like 11,000 is next for the DOW - it is a matter of when, not if. 1200 is next for the SPX and pushing higher is very likely.

If you are shorting or protecting, be vigilant in setting tight stops. No point in giving up all your gains via your protection trades.

Bernanke tomorrow and claims on Thursday.

See you on the mountain the next two days and be back at you Friday.

The Local's Take: Mid-Day Commentary

Hello Traders and Investors,

Another "tortoise" trade day. That is the latest term that CNBC is using to describe the rally. I quote: "Can the tortoise" trade continue? I guess they are running out of terms to describe a "to the moon Alice" bull market that has now extended into its 13th month.

We saw one pullback of about 8% in the $SPX in January and then quickly made a new high and we continue to surge another 3% above that level of $1150.00.

The dollar continues to be weak against the CAD as oil is running with the "demand" trade. We have the EUR and GBP gaining some ground ever since the "Greece" thing quieted down. By the way, how much does Greece contribute to the EU GDP? About 2.7%. Now if this trickles to Spain, Portugal, etc... we have a problem. Until then, another drop in the bucket that the stock market says: can't stop me!!

So the psychological number of $11,000 in the DOW looms ahead and $1200 in the $SPX. As long as we keep climbing, trading opportunities are zero to none and all we can do is watch our portfolio go up.

If you don't have a portfolio, and you are a shorter term trader - enjoy the snow. I am looking forward to Wed and Thur on the mountain as it is supposedly going to snow for now a 6th straight day. We are close to 5 feet out of this storm total in the Park City area, so that means over 6 feet at the Bird and Alta.

I have a feeling we are getting closer to trading opportunities - Murphy's law correct. I will hopefully have more charts to post as we get back into some volatile movements, until then though, just keep watching the upward movement in most sectors. Retail, tech, commodities, consumer discretionary... and on and on and on.

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun Apparel and enjoy January in April for you mountain enthusiasts.

The Local's Take: Too Late in the Day Commentary

Good Evening Traders and Investors,

Due to a mixup, I wasn't needed on the mountain and decided to stay home and work with a few clients as well as GULP trade the markets.

The Forex markets are getting harder and harder to get a handle on as the dollar is acting very different to every major pair. The daily grind in low volatile markets, just got grindier... let me explain.

The "grind" is the trader term for getting in the trenches and busting out a living every day. It is the time when markets are slow, economic numbers aren't moving the markets and for the most part there is one move a day. If you are wrong, you finish down for the day. If you keep trading, you end up trading with yourself and the day gets worse. The GRIND refers to:

• patience
• discipline
• edge

With those 3 fundamentals in place, you look for one good trade and come out ahead or you have one loser, use money management and walk away with your head held high as you did the right thing, the trade just didn't work out. But you didn't expend energy, time and your capital trading in poor markets.

I am glad I had other things to do today, but when the markets sold off almost 100 points, it seems more and more likely that it will continue. Woops - beachball in water. I forgot. We finish up 70, AHEAD of unemployment.

The markets are bullish! Trends are in place, until they stop being a trend. I think I just made that up.

See you tomorrow for an exciting Friday with the jobs announcement. It is Friday - one good trade!

Be Environmentally Cool with Locals Have More Fun apparel and GO DUKE and BUTLER.
Could be the most disciplined coach/students/ball players ever to play in a final!